Ron Mexico
goober
Posts: 80
Reg: 04-11-05
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01-23-06 03:45 PM - Post#13864
Penn fans had a similar discussion in 2002 when a great Penn team beat Georgia Tech, Villanova, Temple, Iowa State, and St. Joe's. I think Penn finished with an RPI of around 35th, but had to win a playoff game vs. Yale to get the league's NCAA bid. If Penn had lost that game there was some question as to whether they would receive the league's first at-large bid.
This year Bucknell is 38th in the RPI with wins over Syracuse, Depaul, and St. Joe's. It will be tough to keep that RPI up with only three regular season games left against teams with winning records (plus the Bracket Buster), but assuming Bucknell wins out until the PL tourney championship game, let's say the RPI remains about the same.
Anyone think Bucknell has a shot at an at-large if it loses that game? I think they'd pretty much have to go 14-0 in the league and get to the tournament championship game to have a realistic chance.
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ericatbucknell
PhD Student
Posts: 1940
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 04:19 PM - Post#13865
In response to Ron Mexico
i set up a pretty good system a few weeks ago to run rpi projections. as of last thursday we sat at 0.5968 if we won out and closer to 0.5910 (i forget the exact number) with a loss in the patriot league championship. given precedent, that should be good enough for an at-large.
The Bracket Bustin' Bison are Back!
Okay. First round streak BACK ON! |
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CaliHawk
Freshman
Posts: 17
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 04:46 PM - Post#13866
In response to ericatbucknell
I'll be rooting for you guys to make it as an at-large. 
I actually think that would be the best possible thing that could happen to the league--have HC or us (preferably us) knock you off in the tourney final and get two teams into the dance.
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Ironswim
newbie
Posts: 3
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 04:53 PM - Post#13867
In response to Ron Mexico
And deny the Big East a 10th tournament team? Never.
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bison02
newbie
Posts: 30
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 07:26 PM - Post#13868
In response to Ironswim
Even if they posted a loss in the PL championship, I wouldnt be surprised with a snub for an at-large.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 07:34 PM - Post#13869
In response to Ron Mexico
Quote:
Penn fans had a similar discussion in 2002 when a great Penn team beat Georgia Tech, Villanova, Temple, Iowa State, and St. Joe's. I think Penn finished with an RPI of around 35th, but had to win a playoff game vs. Yale to get the league's NCAA bid. If Penn had lost that game there was some question as to whether they would receive the league's first at-large bid.
This year Bucknell is 38th in the RPI with wins over Syracuse, Depaul, and St. Joe's. It will be tough to keep that RPI up with only three regular season games left against teams with winning records (plus the Bracket Buster), but assuming Bucknell wins out until the PL tourney championship game, let's say the RPI remains about the same.
Anyone think Bucknell has a shot at an at-large if it loses that game? I think they'd pretty much have to go 14-0 in the league and get to the tournament championship game to have a realistic chance.
I just looked at the Penn record for 2002 and there are a lot of similarities. Their final RPI was 41st and they were 37th OOC. Their overall record was 24-6, 13-3 out of conference and 11-3 in conference. Penn had one win over a top 50 opponent (Villanova) and some other good wins against teams ranked 51-100.
If the Bison lose one conference game and win a good bracket-buster game, they will likely have an RPI in the low 40's, but will be better than 37th OOC. At present, they have one win over a top 50 team (Syracuse), with St Joes and DePaul both ranked in the 50's as well.
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Bison187
newbie
Posts: 5
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 10:09 PM - Post#13870
In response to Bison137
Dream on Bison fans. It will never happen. Worry about winning on Saturday before letting talk of the NCAAs enter your brains. And you still have a little road trip to Worcester left against the defending regular season champs.
And what's up with all the people slapping numbers on the end of "Bison" for their board names? How can you possibly distinguish between each other?
Here's a number for you: The Saders will commit a 187 on the Bison on Feb 11.
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GoBison
Junior
Posts: 221
Reg: 01-22-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-23-06 10:29 PM - Post#13871
In response to Bison187
Well, I was thinking that 187 was the total number of points the Bison gave up in their 5 PL games so far... Turns out, it's actually 219.
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Bison1999
Junior
Posts: 227
Reg: 01-23-06
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Will it ever happen?
01-24-06 01:10 AM - Post#13872
In response to GoBison
Sure. But not this year. The PL champ game is all that matters come tourney time (though NIT bid is a lock for the Bison, probably HC and maybe Lehigh).
And 187 (see? those #s come in handy): Saders lost by 14 and it wasn't even that close. They're getting better (AVB, Cliff & KSimms' cramps) and the Hart is a tough place to play but it'll be the Bison by a touchdown (too deep; too talented; too disciplined).
Go Bison!
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DCAJedi
Masters Student
Posts: 582
Age: 40
Loc: Somewhere.
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-24-06 04:22 AM - Post#13873
In response to Bison187
Quote:
Dream on Bison fans. It will never happen. Worry about winning on Saturday before letting talk of the NCAAs enter your brains. And you still have a little road trip to Worcester left against the defending regular season champs.
And what's up with all the people slapping numbers on the end of "Bison" for their board names? How can you possibly distinguish between each other?
Here's a number for you: The Saders will commit a 187 on the Bison on Feb 11.
that might be more smack talk than i've ever seen on the ivy league board.
| "Here will be an old abusing of God's patience, and the king's English." |
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The Willow
Masters Student
Posts: 402
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-24-06 12:00 PM - Post#13874
In response to DCAJedi
Maybe more explicitly for one game, but Penn fans aren't exactly demure.
Quote:
that might be more smack talk than i've ever seen on the ivy league board.
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-24-06 02:21 PM - Post#13875
In response to The Willow
Have to disagree with 1999. I do not see two PL teams going to post season play, unless BU loses in the PL tourney, and accepts an NIT bid (or the longshot possibility of an NCAA at large bid). I do not think it is in the cards for HC or Lehigh to get an NIT bid this year.
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Bison1999
Junior
Posts: 227
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-24-06 05:54 PM - Post#13876
In response to bison63
Quote:
Have to disagree with 1999. I do not see two PL teams going to post season play, unless BU loses in the PL tourney, and accepts an NIT bid (or the longshot possibility of an NCAA at large bid). I do not think it is in the cards for HC or Lehigh to get an NIT bid this year.
If HC wins all but the PL Championship (including 2/11 @ the Hart), they get NIT. Same for Lehigh. Neither's gonna happen but they would see post-season play if they pulled it off.
Go Bison!
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npyoung35
Sophomore
Posts: 108
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-25-06 12:46 PM - Post#13877
In response to Bison1999
Bucknell (14-3, RPI: 38)
Helpful wins: at Syracuse, at DePaul, Saint Joseph's
Harmful losses: at Duke (by 34), at Santa Clara
Another team that would be biting its nails on Selection Sunday with this profile. Had two shots at the big boys and didn't really come close either time, but does have nonconference wins at Syracuse and DePaul and over Saint Joseph's. Loss at Santa Clara in the Cable Car Classic could be an issue if the Bison drop a game in the Patriot League. Committee doesn't officially recognize past performance, but with same cast back, hard to believe '05 Kansas W wouldn't somehow help in a tiebreaker situation.
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bison02
newbie
Posts: 30
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-25-06 02:07 PM - Post#13878
In response to DCAJedi
On Crossports, someone posted a very interesting link which compares all the projected bracket/seeds. Bucknell ranks as an average 8 seed in the Bracket, of course below Syracuse and Northern Iowa.
http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-25-06 02:54 PM - Post#13879
In response to bison02
>>>On Crossports, someone posted a very interesting link which compares all the projected bracket/seeds. Bucknell ranks as an average 8 seed in the Bracket, of course below Syracuse and Northern Iowa.<<<
None of the people who do these "bracketology" sites don't seem to understand the RPI or the selection process at all. For example, the average projected Bison seed each week has been based mostly on their current RPI. These experts didn't have a clue that the Bison RPI would drop. As many of us have been saying all along, the best the Bison can expect is a 10, with an 11 or even a 12 being the more likely outcomes. As the Bison RPI predictably falls, you will see these bracketology "experts" lower the Bison projected seed.
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jck45
Junior
Posts: 221
Reg: 01-24-06
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Re: at-large for Bucknell?
01-25-06 04:41 PM - Post#13880
In response to Bison137
A 10-12 seed would be perfect for us. 8 or 9 seed no good.
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