UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1122
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
|
05-05-24 03:52 PM - Post#368153
It's time to fill some of the dull time with some speculation:
I have completed a three-part analysis, considering lost minutes, gained players, and 2024.
Lost minutes:
Yale 207.6
Princeton 199.5
Brown 198.2
Harvard 193.5
Penn 178.5
Dartmouth 172.5
Cornell 152.3
Columbia 103.8
Note that the transfer portal claimed only five significant players, notably two from Harvard, which otherwise would have returned the most minutes. Penn ranks fifth in returned minutes. Had Tyler stayed, they would have moved up to second.
New acquisitions: I used Verbal Commits, giving a score of three to any recruit with significant mid-major interest, a 2 to significant lower-level interest, and a 1 to minimal other interest.
Penn 7 recruits score of 11
Columbia 6 recruits score of 11
Princeton 5 recruits score of 10
Harvard 5 recruits score of 8
Yale 3 recruits score of 6
Brown 4 recruits score of 6
Dartmouth 4 recruits score of 5
Cornell 2 recruits score of 2
It is nice to see Penn at the top of this topic. The difference is the three transfers. No other program has reported any so far. Note that Columbia ranks high again.
Improvement rankings: I averaged the lost and gained scores (deviation from the average) to produce an improvement score. For instance, Penn averaged 24% better than the average.
Columbia: 45%
Penn 24%
Princeton 11%
Harvard .8%
Dartmouth -15%
Brown -15%
Yale –18%
Cornell -30%
Any guess why Earl left Cornell? I am encouraged by Penn’s score. More about the implications of that below.
Complete Prospect Rankings: Any forecast must consider the starting points. Penn is not likely to be better than Princeton next year when one understands that Penn finished 213 in KP rankings and Princeton 69. So, I added that factor to the scores. The score represents the school’s results compared to the average. For instance, Penn’s score is 10% above the average. Note that this year’s puts and takes are neutral with respect to the fabled HYP advantages. The Pussies are positive but not dominant, Harvard is neutral, and Yale’s negative balances off Princeton’s positive. The combination is -3%, suggesting the three will lose ground this year.
Princeton 28%
Columbia 21%
Penn 10%
Yale 5%
Cornell -5%
Harvard -9%
Brown -12%
Dartmouth -38%
Here, we see the possible effects of the additions and subtractions on the 2024 results. Brown has had few signings and lost significant talent. Harvard had the two important transfer exits. The transfer portal may spell Amaker’s doom since he has depended on his string of notable recruits. Note that Columbia could make a major move upwards. Princeton stays strong because it adds a positive improvement score to its already low 2024 KP ranking. Yale drops due to a significantly negative improvement score. I am surprised and encouraged that Penn may be moving into a solid position vis-à-vis the post-season tournament. The improvement is largely due to the potential of the transfers. This is not a jump to light speed for the program. But it suggests a return to Donahue’s record of polite mediocracy. As we already know, becoming a true contender will take more than one good recruiting year. Maybe, just maybe, the incumbent sophs will combine with the newbies to produce the nucleus of a strong run. It appears to have size and shooting. Oh, but does it have anybody who can make a stop?
I make this analysis recognizing its crude methodology, a necessity when attempting to quantify such a complicated set of variables. I present it as a means of starting a debate based on, at least, some numbers. I am sure that Mike James could do waaaay better.
|
