Back to Post
| Username | Post: Lafayette Game | |
|---|---|---|
|
BisonRoadWarrior Professor Posts 5203 
|
01-04-20 01:32 PM - Post#295934
Bucknell's preview: https://bucknellbison.com/news/2020/1/3/mens-ba ske... |
|
|
BisonRoadWarrior Professor Posts 5203
|
01-04-20 01:47 PM - Post#295935
"Bucknell has used five different starting lineups this season, and a sixth is on the way on Sunday as senior Bruce Moore is likely to see his streak of 47 straight games played come to an end due to an injury sustained late in the first half of the Army game. " Probable starters listed as Sotos, Funk, Toomer, Meeks and Newman. Looking back at the Army game, "The five players who played the majority of the second-half minutes -- Sotos, Avi Toomer, Andrew Funk, Meeks and Newman -- outscored Army 41-20 during their time on the floor together while scoring a strong 1.4 points per possession." |
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147 
|
01-04-20 02:07 PM - Post#295936
Looking back at the Army game, "The five players who played the majority of the second-half minutes -- Sotos, Avi Toomer, Andrew Funk, Meeks and Newman -- outscored Army 41-20 during their time on the floor together while scoring a strong 1.4 points per possession." Which is why ND needs to sub very sparingly if the Bison are to do well during the PL season. With Moore out, any substitution significantly lowers the quality of the team on the floor. ND seems to be slowly figuring that out. In the last two Bison wins, three of the starters - Sotos, Funk, and Toomer played all 20 minutes of the second half. The only subs used were big men (Spear, Timmerman).
|
|
|
Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
01-04-20 04:24 PM - Post#295942
“In the second half†is the key distinction here. First half’s continue to be scripted and it almost cost us the Army win (+1 to -7 with 5 pt deficit at half left little margin for error). Very limited use of Rice/Timmerman in conjunction with no PT for Ellis at LC will show whether we have abandoned the 9 man first half rotation. Not clear to me why we have abandoned Spear in favor of Timmerman. That can’t be mandated by the comparative performances in OOC that we’ve watched. Spear did not provide any O vs Army but was well positioned defensively defensively throughout the 2nd half. Gets the ball of the rim defensively quicker than anybody else. This is a game Bucknell should win although no Bruce leaves us with even less defensive flexibility. Sleep at home and short trip are positives (unless we go down today) |
|
|
BisonRoadWarrior Professor Posts 5203
|
01-04-20 04:32 PM - Post#295944
Sleep at home and short trip are positives (unless we go down today) Per the media guide, it’s a day trip. |
|
|
MrPhillie Postdoc Posts 2757 
|
01-04-20 05:22 PM - Post#295950
I agree that starters will have to consistently log 35-37 minutes for us to win. Even with Bruce healthy, this team goes only 7 deep, in my opinion. No idea why Timmerman is getting time over Spear...I just don’t get that at all. We are very thin at the guard position. Rice can spell a minute or two but his severe lack of scoring ability hurts. Ellis has been a disappointment, I was hopeful for more from him. I just don’t see how Davis can do anything but lean heavily on his top 5-6 guys. |
|
|
Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
01-04-20 08:02 PM - Post#295964
AGREED...And we are not going to be able to keep out of foul trouble with Bruce, Avi and Newman playing that level of minutes. The whole season is going to require one delicate tactical and surgical response after another. ND has shown no interest in such an MO. Therefore the execution of such an approach has to logical follow from agreeing that such an approach may be required. I do know one thing (and it requires only topical basketball knowledge)...having Timmerman, Ellis and Rice on the floor and Ellis and VdH on the floor at the same time (as we did against Army in H1) is malpractice. The OOC was the test lab for that and the results from the clinical trial are in. If we can’t get away with it against the 8-9th rated team in the PL at Sojka, then it means we can’t get away with it at all. ND is going to have to break another long held philosophy (which Paulsen never did) of playing 100% MTM. Not going to be able to do that going 6-7 deep. Need to play Spear over AT and start using Rhoades (offense be damned) in the PL. Some hard choices need to be made. |
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
|
01-04-20 08:55 PM - Post#295984
ND is going to have to break another long held philosophy (which Paulsen never did) of playing 100% MTM. Not going to be able to do that going 6-7 deep. Need to play Spear over AT and start using Rhoades (offense be damned) in the PL. Some hard choices need to be made. Agree on the above. One thing that is very puzzling is that ND in the first half of his first year played a fair amount of match-up zone, something he said he liked when he first arrived. Then midway through the year he completely abandoned it, perhaps when Nate Jones got hurt, and only used it at the end of the year vs West Virginia. And he has never used it since. It is a good defense to use at times, and history has shown that many PL teams use zones to good effect vs certain other teams. The Bison defense this year has generally been awful - currently ranking about 280th in the nation. I think you have to go back to at least the 1993-94 season to find a worse performance at the defensive end. One issue, as you have noted before, is the automatic switches that make it easy for the opponent to end up with Toomer or Sotos defending their big man near the basket. Colgate in the championship game last year strategically used this Bison trait and ended up with Kimbal or Sotos guarding Ivanauskas and Rayman on multiple occasions. Langel ran plays to create those switches.
|
|
|
Paulie777 PhD Student Posts 1767 |
01-05-20 01:45 PM - Post#296080
I missed the Army game and with the holidays over its time for some basketball. Bucknell is slowly gaining momentum and will at the very least make a bid for the win. Too much talk of a deflated team, Sotos is going to step up, Newman and Meeks will give a good show. Of course, Lafayette is not going to roll over and will come to play on their home court, but I believe Bucknell is up to the challenge. Its a pick em game and I like Bucknell's chances. |
|
|
bison63 Postdoc Posts 3857 |
01-05-20 02:25 PM - Post#296083
Anybody remember the last time Pomeroy gave us a 27% chance of beating LC? Has to be back in the Zoo Crew days. |
|
|
BisonRoadWarrior Professor Posts 5203
|
01-05-20 03:09 PM - Post#296087
How’s your video quality, everybody? Mine is repeatedly faltering. Audio breaks over and over and video is choppy. |
|
|
bison63 Postdoc Posts 3857 |
01-05-20 03:53 PM - Post#296090
Vid good lost audio for a bit. |
|
|
nh2032 Sophomore Posts 185 |
01-05-20 04:08 PM - Post#296092
Similar video issues. Knocked my video quality down to 720p and it seemed to get a little better. |
|
|
bisonmania Masters Student Posts 920 |
01-05-20 04:53 PM - Post#296098
Nice close out win! |
|
|
bisonmania Masters Student Posts 920 |
01-05-20 04:55 PM - Post#296099
I did not see a double digit win coming today. |
|
|
bison63 Postdoc Posts 3857 |
01-05-20 05:06 PM - Post#296101
What a difference one half to the other. At the end of thr first I was ready to toss in the towel on the season. At the end of the game, I'm thinking we can win this league. Both povs are overreactions, but I do think there is hope. Good win. |
|
|
MrPhillie Postdoc Posts 2757
|
01-05-20 05:40 PM - Post#296104
Quite a comeback from 13 down. Avi staying on floor a big factor, and team hitting more shots, but good team win. Glad to see Spear contribute. I wasn’t there but defense had to be better in second half as well, I’m guessing. |
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
|
01-05-20 05:50 PM - Post#296106
Defense was somewhat better, but a big part of the win was LC missing their threes in the second half while the Bison hit everything for long stretches. For the game, LC - who is the PL’s best from three - hit 28% (7-25), while the Bison were over 50%. Another huge factor was BU with only 7 turnovers vs LC’s 15. Part of it was LC’s soft defense, but part was the Bison avoiding careless passes. Spear had one of his top games of the year, including two threes, and Xander Rice probably had his best game. Actually hit two shots and played solid defense.
|
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
|
01-05-20 06:16 PM - Post#296111
Except for this game, all home teams won today. Home teams are 8-1 for the season in PL play. It will become 8-2 when Colgate plays at Army tomorrow night. The Bison currently are in first place all by themselves.
|
|
|
bison63 Postdoc Posts 3857 |
01-05-20 09:38 PM - Post#296120
Defense was somewhat better, but a big part of the win was LC missing their threes in the second half while the Bison hit everything for long stretches. For the game, LC - who is the PL’s best from three - hit 28% (7-25), while the Bison were over 50%. Another huge factor was BU with only 7 turnovers vs LC’s 15. Part of it was LC’s soft defense, but part was the Bison avoiding careless passes. Spear had one of his top games of the year, including two threes, and Xander Rice probably had his best game. Actually hit two shots and played solid defense. Still do not understand why Spear seemed to be in the doghouse, but glad to see his performance today. He has a knack for the dramatic play that can turn the tide. Re: Rice, I thought that today for the first time he looked like he was confidently running the point, as opposed to looking like he hope he didn't make a mistake. His growth cannot hurt.Just watching him bring the ball upcourt, his whole demeanor looked different. |
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
|
01-05-20 10:26 PM - Post#296125
What a difference one half to the other. At the end of thr first I was ready to toss in the towel on the season. At the end of the game, I'm thinking we can win this league. Both povs are overreactions, but I do think there is hope. Good win. Btw, the Bison win probability (Pomeroy) early in the second half was down to 5.5%. After the 17-0 run, it was looking a bit better. Often after a team goes on a big run to catch up after trailing badly, they then kind of run out of gas and allow the opponent to pull ahead again. Today once the Bison caught up, they never relinquished the lead and gradually pulled away.
|
|
|
Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
01-06-20 12:50 PM - Post#296145
OBSERVATIONS: 1. Tied with Hofstra as easiest win of the year 2. Our Rx post Army was spot on 3. Poor John Griffin (i.e., how does SJ lose to LC by 20?) 4. Good to be back in the PL 5. If Rice can go north-south (as opposed to east- west)he will be much more effective. Doesn't need to finish, just needs to go really hard UNDER control and kick to the perimeter 6. Offense in the last two second halves seemed better with Bruce off the floor...coincidence? (this is where we need to think first/sub later as opposed to the other way around...can't work from the assumption that -5 and -9 at the half is OK across the board 7. Its clear ND does not want to put Spear in the position of defending the 5. Comparative performance does not illustrate to me that AT is a better option or even close to it. 8. Nice to break the skid with the Army win and possibly gain some confidence deeper into the lineup 9. Sorry Rhoades was pulled so fast as he is the type of big defensive body we're gonna need. If hit that mid-range jumper he would have stayed longer (don't see him pulling Ellis like that) |
|
|
DoCtoR62 Masters Student Posts 463 |
01-06-20 01:57 PM - Post#296154
Btw, the Bison win probability (Pomeroy) early in the second half was down to 5.5%. I've been a stat guy my whole life, but in-game win probabilities cannot go away fast enough for me. There are too many factors that they do not (cannot) consider. Last year when we trailed Army late in the first half, our win probability was 1%. What would Army's have been if we were winning by the same score, a negative pct? It has taken geekdom too far, and that's coming from someone who has been called a geek many times in my life. |
|
|
Bison137 Professor Posts 16147
|
01-06-20 02:12 PM - Post#296156
OBSERVATIONS: 3. Poor John Griffin (i.e., how does SJ lose to LC by 20?) 5. If Rice can go north-south (as opposed to east- west)he will be much more effective. Doesn't need to finish, just needs to go really hard UNDER control and kick to the perimeter 6. Offense in the last two second halves seemed better with Bruce off the floor...coincidence? 7. Its clear ND does not want to put Spear in the position of defending the 5. Comparative performance does not illustrate to me that AT is a better option or even close to it. 9. Sorry Rhoades was pulled so fast as he is the type of big defensive body we're gonna need. If hit that mid-range jumper he would have stayed longer (don't see him pulling Ellis like that) 3. St. Joes is a real mess. In addition to that LC loss, they have a 16-point loss to St. Francis, a 39 point loss to Temple, and a 32 point loss to Richmond. Pomeroy ranks them behind eight Patriot League teams. What is amazing is how SJ beat Bradley and UConn at the start of the year. 5. Agree that Rice needs to penetrate more. But right now when he does drive, he makes it too obvious that he has no intention of shooting. Doesn't even look at the rim. Even if a lane opened up the width of the Grand Canyon, I think he would still kick it out. 6. Might not be coincidence. Bruce recently hadn't been scoring much in the lane and his outside shot has totally abandoned him. Like a golfer with the yips. On threes, he is 1-25 this year, after being doing reasonably well on threes the past two years. Also his defensive rebounding has been very weak this year. His defensive rebounding rate is half that of Sotos and Funk, and also way behind Toomer. Even way behind Ellis. 7. Part of Spear's usage may have been dictated by Lafayette having a 7-0 center who showed some surprising ability to back into the lane and score. Spear did play center for a couple of minutes vs Army. But yes, ND clearly prefers him at PF. Now that he is showing an OK stationary three point shot, if he could only develop a couple of moves to the basket, he could be useful on offense. AS for AT, he does show some talent, but he is just too slow laterally to guard any center with a quick spin or drop step. That problem would be at least partly solved if he went back to his HS playing weight. 8. At some point Rhodes may get more minutes, but right now his offense is non-existent. Missing that mid-range shot was about a 90% probability. If you surrounded him with Funk, Sotos, Toomer, and Ellis, his lack of offense wouldn't be a big deal - but playing him with a few other subs really makes it difficult to score. As for Ellis, ND has trimmed his minutes significantly. He is averaging 7 mpg over the past nine games, and only played 5 mpg in each of the last two. Right now, he won't put the ball to the floor with any purpose, has no inside or mid-range game and is not good defensively. He needs to show a fair amount of improvement in these areas. At least he has hit an OK percentage of his threes this year.
|
|
|
Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
01-06-20 02:29 PM - Post#296158
But #2 was the good one! 😂 |
|
|
Old Bison Masters Student Posts 619 |
01-06-20 07:58 PM - Post#296170
and #8 - Yes, but Rhoades got 2 minutes and that was rounded UP! 😃 |
|
|
 |
|
| Copyright © 2004-2012 Basketball U. Terms of Use for our Site and Privacy Policy are applicable to you. All rights reserved. Basketball U. and its subsidiaries are not affiliated in any way with any NCAA athletic conference or member institution. |
|