Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-22 04:55 PM - Post#339539
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
In a day or two I will be posting the efficiency numbers for the 2022, 14-game, Ivy season. Because the rankings are so unusual, I want to state the following.
The formula for calculating the WS (win score) was created by David Berri, not by me. I do not have a personal stake in these numbers. I will defend them because I enjoy being argumentative.
Berri places a high value on rebounds and shooting percentage. Not surprisingly, the top two players in this year’s rankings are good rebounders with high shooting percentages.
Because rebounds are highly valued, interior players tend to score higher than perimeter players.
Each turnover is weighted at negative 1. Each turnover committed during a game is as if the player scored 1 fewer point. Players with fewer turnovers are rewarded by these numbers.
This does not purport to rank the “best” players or those players most deserving of first-team honors. One fan described the value of these numbers saying, “If I already had two stars on my roster, I would draft a player from the top of this list to get the rebounds, and not commit turnovers.”
Because WS numbers are cumulative, the more minutes you play, the higher your score will be. Therefore, I also offer the WS/40, the win score per 40 minutes. That category also identifies those players who were potentially underutilized.
Box score metrics like this can only evaluate players based on numbers that are compiled. There is no number that reflects an individual's on the ball defense. A player who boxes out so that his teammate gets a rebound or who sets a screen behind which his teammate scores is a player who receives no credit in these numbers.
Inefficient shooting is punished. Shooting efficiency is defined as points scored minus shot attempts. Two free throw attempts are considered one shot attempt. If a player attempts 16 field goals and four foul shots, that is considered 18 shot attempts. 18 points scored on those 18 shot attempts is considered a shooting efficiency of zero (breakeven).
There are no bonus points for degree of difficulty. If the shot clock is running out, a player who blows by his defender, then spins around the help at the basket at lays it in gets credit for only one basket. If the player rises up above his defender and buries a contested shot, he gets credit for only one basket. Creating one’s own shot receives no extra credit.
The raw win score represents a total of shooting efficiency plus everything else. Everything else consists of rebounds plus assists plus blocked shots plus steals minus turnovers minus personal fouls (with the designated weights for each category).
When the chart is published, you will find the player who had a shooting efficiency of 21.5, but who was a negative 8 on everything else for a total WS of 13.5. You will find the player who had a shooting efficiency of negative 7, but who was a plus 55.5 on everything else for a total WS of 48.5.
It goes without saying that this is a team game. In 2019, Harvard tied Yale for the regular season title. No Harvard player was ranked in the top 15. But, Harvard had 5 of the top 26 ranked players and 8 of the top 38. Teams that “spread the wealth” win games, even if they do not produce highly ranked players.
Later this weekend, I will post a link to the numbers. I will be intrigued by your comments.
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