JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 09:39 PM - Post#361149
The 39th edition of the Ivy Women’s basketball 56-game 62-day round robin commences this Saturday.
The Ivies went 53-43 in D1 out of conference games, 10-15 vs. the Power 6 – currently the 11th best NCAA Net Conference. Using NCCA NET as the ranking (as it’s what the NCAA uses to consider teams for post season and the only the Ivy Tiebreaker source), the Ivies have three top 100 teams (37.5%) - the only Mid-Major conference that is higher on a percentage basis is the A10 [15] is higher at 40%. Only 10 Power 6 schools are not in the Top 100!
Team NET
Princeton 51
Columbia 67
Harvard 71
Brown 153
Penn 204
Cornell 216
Yale 249
Dartmouth 324
Her Hoops Stats in general on the same page as the NET, except for Brown & Penn. I mention Her Hoops Stats (HHS), as it is the source I use for stats and the site provides projected results.
HHS & NET both see the world in two tiers: a three team race for first and a four-team race for the final Ivy Madness spot. But as none of the top three teams has been as dominant in 23-24 as they were in 22-23, I believe there will be more 60-40 games than projected by the models, and anyone could lose on either 15 or 16 March.
HHS has a win probability for each game and who is favored by an expected score – both tiers are vey close
Team Expected Ws Favored
Princeton 11.65 12
Columbia 11.61 13
Harvard 10.55 11
Penn 5.91 7
Brown 5.40 5
Yale 4.52 4
Cornell 4.47 4
Dartmouth 1.90 0
Based on the out of conference results, Columbia, Harvard & Princeton are all deserving of being ranked Top 100 NCAA NET – and with All-Ivy Talent, 5th year player experience, depth, success in the out of conferences campaign, recent post season successes, coaching – seemingly too much consistency not to make Ivy Madness.
• I believe all three could end the season as WBIT eligible, but only perhaps a 14-0/13-1 Princeton team, who still has the core of teams that almost twice made the sweet 16, could maintain a low 40 NCAA NET after an Ivy Madness loss and overcome the NCAA Tournament Committee’s Power 6 favoritism
Today, I would not expect any team to earn an at large bid, as I do not see anyone going 14-0 or even 13-1 – I believe a two-way tie at 12-2 or 11-3 is more likely than a two-way tie at 13-1 or any team at 14-0.
• Columbia, with Ivy Madness on their home-court, has the slight advantage for the NCAAs, but they will also face the increased NCAA tournament expectation of winning at home. Currently Columbia at home would be a 4.1-point favorite over Princeton and a 7.1-point favorite over Harvard – double digits over the remining five.
• Key games for the likely #1 seed:
13 January Princeton at Harvard
20 January Columbia at Princeton
2 February Harvard at Columbia
17 February Columbia at Harvard
24 February Princeton at Columbia
1 March Harvard at Princeton
• The loss of Harmoni Turner makes it harder to place the Crimson at the same level as the Lions and Tigers. But Harvard has played very well coming out of exams, such that even without Turner they appear to have enough firepower to be closer to second than fourth.
Unlike the out of conference season where opponents may not have enough film or time between games to prepare, in season everyone should know what players and teams want to do, and the 62-day Ivy Season affords the time for players to rest and develop, injures to heal and coaches add to their offensive sets and defensive schemes.
I believe Brown and Penn are both in the next tier – with third to fifth as the likely range – Brown is building on their good 22-23 play and with their Big East wins has the higher tie breaking NET ranking. Penn, who played a lot of players with under 400 min of college experience and did not have Floor Toonders early is favored by Her Hoops Stats. Both metrics are backwards looking – stating the obvious: the Ivy Madness representative will come down to the team with the best player development, coaching strategy and most consistent play over the next 14 games – and of course the better bit of luck.
• Two key matchups – if one team can sweep, it should be very hard for the other team to make up two games in the loss column:
2 February Brown at Penn – 1st game of a back-to-back
17 February Penn at Brown – 2nd game of a back-to-back
Best possible chance for a Top 3 upset for both teams: Home game vs. Harvard
Most likely Trap Games for both teams: At Cornell & At Yale
• Scheduling Advantage: Slightly to Penn – as Brown is only favored twice in the first seven games and Penn is favored four times … so Brown may have the added pressure of playing catchup to make fourth.
At the midway point - Penn is expected to be ahead of Brown. The top 3 being close to clinching Ivy Madness tickets.
Team Favored first 7 games
Princeton 6
Columbia 6
Harvard 6
Penn 4
Brown 2
Cornell 2
Yale 2
Dartmouth 0
Penn has five of their starting eight at home – three of the four two game weekends have the second game at home. Plus they play Harvard at home as part of a women’s-men’s doubleheader.
Brown only has two home games (one Harvard) in their starting five. I feel they need to win on the road and be 4-1 / 5-0 headed into Penn on 2 February – as that starts a killer seven-game gauntlet (including two back-to-backs) of Penn-Princeton-Columbia-P rinceton-Penn-Harvard-Col umbia.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale all dangerous to pull a few upsets, we will haveto see if any have consistency to compete or / make Ivy Madness.
• Cornell is playing better then expectations, and the trip to Ithaca is always a challenge. – likely sixth or seventh
• Dartmouth is also playing better than expectations, so someone could fall trap to a hot Big Green on a cold winter night. They are headed in the right direction, but still likely eight.
• Yale is playing worse than expectations, but as they just showed vs. Quinnipiac they have the talent (especially in their all Ivy backcourt) to make Ivy Madness, so they all could cause a few upsets. But they only have ten players, so Ivy weekends will be very hard on this team – especially with the Ps being two of them. I could see them finishing fourth to seventh.
Interesting scheduling quirks: The 2024 Ivy schedule, despite being 10 weeks, does not space out game between common opponents. The teams will play their Game1 opponent in Game 5 – before they play three other Ivies. Ivy Weekend 1: Games 6 & 7 are reversed in Ivy Weekend 2: Games 9 & 10. Also interesting is Ivy Weekend 3 (Games 12 & 13): Four teams will have men’s & women’s home doubleheaders – but not against the same Ivy pair.
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