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Post: Looking Forward

james
Masters Student
Posts: 801

Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19

01-05-24 11:06 PM - Post#361299
In response to Tiger81

theoretically you travel across country playing one offs against different styles and levels of play not to maximize your wins per se but in a 1 bid league...figure out your warts, develop cohesian and improve.
this has always been James' MO publicly and privately.
this non conference has been very successful in so doing imo. i have been able to watch a lot of yale games almost all in fact for the first time since I played thanks to espn+ and my own transition away from finance and into coaching part time.

there have been warts and they have been obvious. if i had to distill it down into simple probabilistic terms using expected value theory as you espoused in original well articulated post.

the variance is rather high and the bands (upside/downside) have been wide.
i mean they were absolutely pounding rhode island in the 1st half and GWebb and ended up blowing the 1st and nearly the second.

the uvm game is almost too stupid to talk about. its hard to win at patrick gym. its like playing your nightmare hs rival in a packed crappy gym when the whole town is there bc its 0 degrees outsidr and there is nothing to do but drink. that was true in the 90s but uvm is better now.
anyway they won that game imo even tho it shows up as a loss.

why are the bands wide? james has been flummoxed on this. he to a man believes this is the most talent he has ever had. he probably regrets saying this so openly to donors and reporters alike at this point.
they havent (knock on wood) had any key injuries; wolf has emerged as a star and a unicorn not just for this level but nationally; and yet they yin yang their way along.

statistically the culprit was defense and orebs until it wasnt but then it resurfaces at times. yes the offense goes stagnant in part bc of how they are guarded and the lack of shooting balance.
its frustrating. i even get the sense the emergence of wolf at the expense of others and his usage demands (which shld be increased in my view) create connectivity.

the offense is defended differently than i can remember. it kind of started last year and he made some adjustments.
the latest adj is running it through wolf almost like princeton from the goodrich years.
but i still see too much hero ball creating stagnation and hot/cold intergame eras.
bez was the "hero" against howard and damn near blew the game offensively at a time he cldnt guard a kid 1 on 1 for like the first time ever.
anyway game in the dmv etc likely contributed.
this is too long but the good news is there are signs and the warts are out.
last year i cldnt believe how well they looked non conf against a less "unique" schedule snd they promptly laid serious eggs in the league.
you hope wolf is healthy and ready to go AND the warts/disappointments are fodder to realize the bull case and minimize the bear.
as an aside the coaching dynamics are so hard now! everyonr has ipads w data and analytics and unlimited video. and this is in high school ball. i have 2 4 stars and one in my house and we still are in battles every night w great coaching and strategy.
i have much respect for it and james and hope he and his staff evolve such that they can squeeze this lemon and realize their upside.
The IL like GA 6a hs ball is deeper at the top. cornell is very hard to play now and add princeton and a healthy harvard a young but talented penn etc. this wont br easy. but i know james is frustrated by the variance and you will get punished for it like never before in my view

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