JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-21-24 10:43 AM - Post#361941
In response to CM
At some point in the second halves of their games, Columbia, Cornell and Dartmouth were all favored by ESPN to win. But for the fourth consecutive time, no Ivy Women’s upsets.
Princeton has been the clear best team over the first four games. And with their large wins over the likely 2-3 Ivy Madness matchup (Columbia & Harvard), plus their NET advantage – not saying they have mathematically locked up the first seed – but given the Ivy tiebreaker logic, for either the Crimson or Lions to be the first seed, the Tigers will need at least two losses. The only remaining game where Princeton is not favored, their game at Columbia.
Second and third currently appear to be a battle between Columbia and Harvard … The order does not matter, as the Lions will have home court. Their primary focus should be to avoid falling to fourth.
The race for the last Ivy Madness spot continues to be between Brown and Penn. The Bears can likely play for the split in the meetings. The Quakers most likely path to fourth is by sweeping the season matchup.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale round out the league at 1-11.
Game 5 next week is the flipside of the Game 1 contests,
NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 37 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42 NET
WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton safely in – current projected bubble 90 NET
WNIT (48): Brown (145 NET) – current projected bubble 157 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases. Penn is likely on the bubble
The win expectations generally remain the same with Brown & Penn flipping spots … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.8 13
Columbia 11.2 12
Harvard 10.4 11
Brown 6.8 7
Penn 6.6 7
Yale 3.8 3
Cornell 3.1 3
Dartmouth 1.3 0
The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:
Princeton improved by 3 with a there 15 point win over Columbia – which fell by 6
Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 145 -4
Columbia 71 5
Cornell 253 6
Dartmouth 325 -4
Harvard 78 1
Penn 170 -3
Princeton 37 -3
Yale 258 5
Overall 167 0
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