Regardless of Penn’s weaknesses, somebody has to get the fourth spot, and the other contenders have their own issues. If everyone wins every game they are favored to win the rest of the way, Harvard gets to 6 wins, Penn and Columbia 5, brown 3. So it may not take the type of push it has taken in the past — there are even reasonable scenarios where a 5 win team gets the last spot. Penn will have a chance if they can simply win the games they should win.

One of those games is at brown, so of course it is best not to get swept. But I think the only scenario that dooms Penn is getting swept this weekend while Harvard sweeps Columbia and Cornell. That would be a killer.