JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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02-03-24 10:27 AM - Post#362650
In response to CM
The favored won Game 6 – the meta game is in the relative NET movements
School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 167 16
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 255 -2
Dartmouth 318 5
Harvard 83 2
Penn 172 -17
Princeton 32 0
Yale 250 0
Overall 167 0
In looking at the most likely paths:
Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.9 13
Columbia 11.8 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Penn 7.0 8
Brown 6.3 6
Yale 3.7 3
Cornell 3.3 3
Dartmouth 1.0 0
For #1 Seed … Princeton favored over Columba: While Columbia is a slight favorite at home to Princeton – and both are favored in every other game – I do not expect the Lions will catch the Tigers in the NET
For #2 Seed … Columbia ... the win over Harvard last night, and being a favorite over Princeton in a game, gives the Lions many more paths
For #3 Seed … Harvard … I do not see any potential 4 seed catching the Crimson on NET
For #4 Sees … Penn has more paths than Brown: If the Quakers sweep the Bears (next game 17 Feb at Brown – and while the game is still a toss-up the Penn became the technical favorite by 0.2 from a 1.9 road underdog), Brown’s path to fourth, while mathematically possible, would require multiple upsets – so a must win for the Bears and while not a “must” win for Penn, it’s the next level down of terminology.
If the teams split, the tie breakers will now first look Ivy seed by seed to see if any team has a better record. Most likely case, both teams finish 7-7. No wins vs top 3 and 6 wins vs. bottom 3.
So the most likely tiebreaker is NET: Here is where the size of Penn win (21 when they were favored by 4) was criterial, as it moved the Quarter’s NET -17 to 172 and the Bears +16 to 167. So from here on out, each team will be playing the NET game, and actual to expected point differential is crucial. I do not know who has the easier path to the better NET: Brown has five games where they are 15-20 point underdog, their style is not to play slow and keep the game in the 50s, which would be a strategy to cover the spread. Penn’s mix of point spreads is much tighter – so while they likely can win some by more, its also easier to lose by more.
Edited by JDP on 02-03-24 10:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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