iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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03-19-24 11:03 AM - Post#365834
In response to james
Some things that make me feel better about the matchup, in no particular order:
I think analytics systems tend to overrate good teams that play uptempo, and Auburn is one such team. Teams like that get a lot of turnovers for easy layups and get more possessions against bad teams, which gooses their offensive numbers. Yale doesn't turn the ball over much and has ball handlers at all five spots, which will help limit that sort of thing.
When there's a clash of tempos, the team that can control the tempo gives itself an advantage, and a team that plays slow has more of a say in the matter than a team that plays fast does.
Auburn hasn't exactly been tremendous away from home this year. Their best win out of Alabama before the SEC Tournament was @KP87 Ole Miss.
Fast teams sometimes have a tendency to be a bit undisciplined, and some of Auburn's number support the idea that they might be too. For example, they're 60th in the country at OREB%, but they're only 234th in DRB%. They're also one of the most foul-prone teams in the country and send their opponents to the line a lot. (Of course, making free throws has been something of an adventure for Yale lately, but still.)
Danny Wolf is a challenge to guard. Obviously teams in the league have managed to challenge him pretty well, but it might be harder to do for a team putting together a scout on two days notice with max 2 practices to implement it. We've got some evidence that this is the case too - look at what he did against Hunter Dickinson, who's the best big Yale faced all year by a long shot.
I may have to watch the game on tape delay, since my fiancée is coming to visit Friday evening, but I think the Bulldogs can give a good account of themselves on Friday, and if things go well, they could even win the darn thing.
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