mobrien
Masters Student
Posts: 403
Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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04-09-24 03:51 PM - Post#367168
In response to SomeGuy
Every mid-major conference is now just a minor league for the Power 5. (The Missouri Valley has been hit especially hard this year; at last count, something like 10 of the 15 players on their all-conference teams are in the portal). This isn't going to change, either, unless they get rid of the instant transfer rules, which I doubt will happen. The most I could see is something like limiting guys to one instant transfer during their careers (unless their coach leaves) as a reaction against the players going to three or four schools in four years.
In that light, the Ivies might actually be doing a little bit better than other mid-majors at retaining players. The degree is still worth something. Guys like not only Lee and Pierce, but also Lilly, Okpara, Poulakidas, Mbeng, DLR, and Nazir Williams would probably all be in the portal right now if this was the America East and not the Ivies. So it definitely lowers our ceiling a lot, but the floor may not be as low as we fear (although let's see if all those guys do end up staying).
The big question is what ends up happening with the big conferences. As we've said before, it seems pretty clear that the ACC is on the verge of imploding; Clemson and Florida State both want to join the SEC as soon as possible, and others won't be far behind. I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC and Big 12 try to prevent their remaining teams from being picked off by merging. That'd give them the size to try to negotiate something closer to the money the SEC and Big 10 are getting from football. If they don't do that, they'll both be gone within the next five years or so. Although even if they do, it still might not be enough.
That leaves the Big East, which even in its lesser form has still managed to win four of the past eight championships. It's not going to go away, although it will get harder for them to compete at such a high level if it starts routinely getting outbid on players, and, more importantly, its coaches. (Hurley shows how much having a coach who runs a modern offense matters nowadays). It probably needs to get bigger too if it wants to get the bigger TV deal it needs to not fall too far behind. That would probably mean trying to poach the best two or three schools from the other basketball-only conferences—Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Francisco, and maybe Santa Clara from the WCC; Dayton, VCU, Loyola Chicago, and possibly George Mason from the A10; and maybe even Bradley or Drake of the MVC (although Drake just lost its coach); and, of course, any of Duke, Stanford, or Notre Dame if the ACC did completely fall apart and they weren't scooped up by any other conference.
Within 10 years, there could be easily be two or three big football conferences and one big basketball-only conference that between them would encompass something like 80 schools. Mid-major teams will lose most of their top talent every year, and will get younger and less competitive as a result. That'll make it easier for the big boys to argue that smaller conferences don't deserve automatic bids anymore, which could lead to a "compromise" where the tournament is either expanded, or more autobid teams have to face off in play-in games, or both.
Lots to not look forward to.
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