mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-24-20 01:18 PM - Post#315353
In response to Streamers
So, I obviously don’t come at this problem from the angle of an epidemiologist. About the biological specifics of the virus, I only know what I read.
At the same time, I’ve spent a lot of time with the data on outcomes, so I do have some perspective on that piece from a data science angle.
From March until schools reopened around Labor Day, the pattern in different localities was for the virus to take hold and explode relatively unchecked until the locality hit 20-25% antibody rates. That’s what we saw in NYC. It’s what we saw in FL. And so on. You could think of 20-25% as “herd immunity at that behavior level.â€
That being said, as behavior changed with some kids going back to schools and some colleges opening, we will likely need a new, higher antibody rate to be “herd immunity at that new behavior level.†That’s why we’re seeing the true spikes in the localities that didn’t previously have one (they need to get all the way up to that behavior-adjusted herd immunity level to begin with) and persistent, concerning-but-not-quite- spiking rises in daily cases in states that previously hit that 20-25% antibody rate but now need a higher antibody rate as more people expose themselves by engaging in behavior that they didn’t prior to Labor Day.
Now, many will argue: “That’s just cases.†The thing is that on a macro level, cases and deaths track pretty well with each other. While I agree with the notion that death rates are trivially different from zero among the college-aged population, the Case Fatality Rate has tended to be a little under 2% since the virus caught the NE off guard and threw off huge CFR numbers. That consistent CFR has debunked this notion that cases among younger folks are irrelevant - along with the shifts in a state like FL, which did indeed have a strong decline in the median age during the early part of its spike only to have the median age bounce right back up on a lag. The notion that you can let the virus run wild among one group of people and have it not escape to impact other groups doesn’t seem realistic from the data.
I want to be clear, though. The Ivy League *could* play a basketball season safely. We have some of the best resources in the world at our disposal. We could probably figure this out. I also think that if we hit that new “herd immunity at that behavior level†threshold quickly, we may be in another case lull by January with few remaining localities in our country that haven’t experienced an outbreak. But that’s a much different question than where is the Ivy League presidents’ threshold for risk, and what are they likely to do...
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