mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-01-21 11:37 AM - Post#322766
In response to Penndemonium
The model is based on team-level win shares by class compared against the aggregated ratings for that class. It is indeed a multiple regression analysis with the features being number of recruits, sum of recruiting scores and recruits between 1.5 and 2.0 and 2.5 and 3.0 stars (which the model sees as generally over-rated when controlling for their contribution to the sum of scores).
A zero-star recruit is worth 2.8 average win shares, while a one-star recruit is worth 4.4 average win shares. But then, while the stars keep adding to the Sum of Scores, for 1.5 to 3 there is a penalty that takes away some of that benefit, as traditionally, recruits rated in that range don't perform increasingly well. That stops at 3-star and above where the performance is very strong.
I made a couple of tweaks to the model and will adjust the numbers above, but that's basically what's happening. Still... I think that having regional recruiting rankings and offers would MASSIVELY improve model performance (especially at the individual level, where this model isn't very strong at all).
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