Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8258
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-16-22 04:15 PM - Post#333417
In response to Chip Bayers
Here is why, all other things being equal, I think the dogs will out perform. I absolutely believe HCA does not rate the automatic 3 points anymore. Part of this is the lack of crowds (even small ones help in Ivy gyms) but also because they have largely done away with the weekend road trips.
Also, the bookmakers are pretty formulaic when setting the lines and they do not move much with the small handles. We actually know more than they do about matchups, injuries, etc. Maybe betting ALL the dogs is an exaggeration, but we will see some live ones this year for sure.
Penn should be 4-0. They lost the game in which they were favored the most. It was a predictable overlay given the matchups with the Lion frontcourt fully available. You mentioned PU being a lousy bet so far. Just the kind of thing I am talking about. Also watch the over/unders. Penn Dartmouth went off at 134 because of 2 shot-dependent teams that had recently gone cold. I assumed that would revert which enabled me to make a successful wager.
Using the ‘formula’, Penn should be +7 or 8 at PU. Let’s see how it comes out.
Edited by Streamers on 01-16-22 04:20 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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