SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
|
01-16-22 06:11 PM - Post#333423
In response to Streamers
Admittedly I am not a gambler, so I am only viewing this in a statistical sense (no wagers for me). But does it make sense to say Penn should be 4-0? Because the Brown game was essentially even (and that assumes a 3 point home court advantage — at a neutral site Brown is a 4 point favorite or so against Penn), and the Cornell and Dartmouth games were close enough that the most likely scenario for Penn was 3-1, and 2-2 was more likely than 4-0. Penn managed to lose the one game that it was highly unlikely for them to lose, but overall they’ve ended up about where their profile said they shouldbe after 4 games. Which is how these things work — the metrics give a pretty good sense of where you will end up overall, but don’t do as well game to game.
You cite Princeton being 0-3 at home against the spread so far, but that basically presumes that Princeton’s games are the only ones that matter. I can flip that stat and say that the other 7 schools are 7-2 at home against the spread so far. And by definition home teams should be around even against the spread, right?
I do agree that Dartmouth and Penn hitting the over was a good guess. Penn can be a little tricky on this because of a reduction in pace as the season has gone on. But Penn’s offense seems to play regardless of opponent (the odd exception being Columbia, by far the worst defense they have played all year). So it was a reasonable guess that Penn would score reasonably efficiently even against a decent Dartmouth defense, and that Dartmouth would score reasonably efficiently against Penn’s defense which is, regrettably, not very good.
|
