SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4919
Reg: 02-04-06
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03-21-22 10:15 PM - Post#339745
In response to palestra38
Stuart, how is this different from the usual problem of not correcting for usage (which some used to call the "Kobe Bryant problem)?
Suppose you think about an offensive possession as exploiting opportunities to score or assist. These opportunities are of different quality, and a better player can score or assist more often at a given level of opportunity quality.
Opportunities arrive with a degree of randomness for any given player. A player who only shoots or makes an assist-type pass with great opportunities, and hence has very high efficiency, could well be less productive than one who is intrinsically better at any opportunity quality level but who also uses more-plentiful, lower-quality opportunities.
For example, being able to dribble by a primary defender and challenge a help defender with a 40% success rate could be more valuable than only being able to hit an uncontested layup at an 80% rate if the former opportunity occurred more than twice as often. (Coaches and teams that can manufacture more great opportunities are rightly lauded, but that just changes the absolute numbers, not the principle that a high-usage player who is relatively good at available opportunities may be worth more than one who has to, or chooses to, wait for very good ones to come by.)
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