JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-27-23 08:43 PM - Post#359782
In response to sparman
To put some math around the remainder of the season - and how good this Princeton team is:
21 games – 17.3 expected wins
Only two games as an underdog: at Villanova (-8) and at Columbia (-2.6)
Only five other games with less than an 80% chance of winning: at Seton Hall (+8.9), URI (+0.6), at Harvard (+0.5), home to Columbia (+6.7), home to Harvard (+8.2)
11 games with a 95%+ chance of winning
Clearly favored to win the League and gain an at large bid for the NCAA regardless of Ivy Madness madness.
The downside of this superiority is that Princeton’s NET (30) with only one higher NET team remaining (Nova -20) is naturally much more likely to fall towards the bubble line, than improve to NET 16 and hosting the open weekend.
In my opinion, Columbia’s NCAA at large bid was harmed much more by needing to go to OT vs. Cornell (which dropped them 10 NET spots) than the Ivy Madness loss to Harvard. Remember Princeton fell 41 to 45 NET after a close win over a good Harvard team late last season.
Each game here out is a NET trap game and success is not measured by Ws but by how does the NET change.
Edited by JDP on 11-27-23 08:45 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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