iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-11-24 06:18 PM - Post#363134
In response to LocalTiger
Yale's in the best position mostly because it's banked wins against P and C already. My back-of-the-envelope math suggests that, presuming Cornell doesn't win out, Yale sews up the one seed at 12-2 if it manages to snag one at either Jadwin or Newman. (KP gives them a 33% probability and a 43% probability to win those respective games, so a ~62% chance to win at least one.)
If Yale loses both of those, however, things get dire. They couldn't win a three-way tie with P and C all at 12-2, because the predictive ratings favor Princeton. So Yale would not only need to win all the rest of its games - no mean feat - but it would need Princeton to drop one to someone other than Cornell (because Yale would lose to Cornell on the second tiebreaker if the latter swept Princeton).
TL;DR - Yale is in the best position because they have the most leeway, but if they go 0-2 against P and C on the home stretch, they aren't likely to get the 1 seed.
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