JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 581
Reg: 11-23-04
|
02-19-24 11:39 AM - Post#363531
In response to JDP
Seedings are close. to being set
#1 Seed: Princeton most likely - and a likely a NCAA large with a Ivy Madness loss ... perhaps even a regular season loss to C or H and a Ivy Madness loss
• Princeton: at Columbia, Harvard, Dartmouth, Penn – Her Hoop Stat (HHS) projection 3-1
• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0
• Princeton (26 NET), even if they lose to Columbia (62), but win out, still likely has an insurmountable NET advantage over the Lions.
• Columbia to get the #1 seed, most likely needs to beat Princeton and then have one less loss than the Tigers in the remaining 3.
• The Lions will be rooting for Harvard to beat Princeton – but who does the Crimson want to play in the opening round of Ivy Madness – with a win Harvard would likely play a revenge game against Princeton and be a 7.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a neutral court, or with a loss they would likely face Columbia and be a 8.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a true “away” court. Perhaps a shade better odds facing the Lions in the Tournament opening round, as the fans of the winner (and some of the losers) of the 1-4 game will be rooting against the home court Lions?
#2 / #3 Seed: Not that it matters for the semifinal - Assuming Columbia #2 – Harvard #3
• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0
• Harvard: Brown, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 3-1
• Harvard being swept by Columbia, needs to finish one game ahead of the Lions to be the second seed, and the Crimson are two behind in the loss column - so Columbia pretty much would need to lose out.
• If Harvard wants to make the WBIT- all four games do matter from a NET perspective – and at a 85 NET, Harvard is close to falling out with a bad loss.
#4 Seed: Brown has the clearest path
• Brown: At Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, Yale – HHS projection 2-2
• Penn: At Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 2-2
• What does Brown have to fear: Penn beating Harvard and/or Princeton to get to 7-7 or 8-6 and losing on tiebreaker #2 – record against Ivy opponents by seed.
• And the Bears will be underdogs to Harvard and Columbia – a 78% chance they lose both, and the Quakers will be favored over Cornell and Dartmouth – a 61% chance they win both – so a 48% chance Penn will have two shots to control its own destiny against Harvard (30% chance of a win) and Princeton (4% chase of a win)
• Yale is still in play, but they would need to win out (D, C, C, B) and thread a fine needle between Brown & Penn on the common opponents tiebreaker – the Eli would loose on NET.
School NET WoW (- good)
Brown 165 0
Columbia 62 -2
Cornell 259 2
Dartmouth 311 -1
Harvard 85 0
Penn 177 -5
Princeton 26 -6
Yale 257 15
Overall 168 0
|
