a couple of seemingly contradictory things could be true at once....
the recruiting could be fine for a while.
why? because of the portal high school kids who are mid major+ arent getting offers. i coached two this year on an elite team of 12. they might do a prep school or juco but a few years ago they would have 10+ offers mid major+
coaches are prioritizing the elite kids and the portal.
but at the same time you lose any kids who become elite college players-mack wolf etc.
so you stay younger which hurts relative but you dont fall off a cliff.
is this my prediction? not necessarily. there are a lot of variables and i am still net bearish on the implications for the ivies.
but so far not surprised by any developments so we'll see
big picture-the SEC and big 10 will swallow the world anyway in football. that ripple hits basketball in some way. nobody will graduate there will be an uproar;the ncaa tournament complexion could change; really who knows how far or where it goes if no congressional input.
case in point yale. wolf leaves which is a huge blow. does anyone else follow in 30 days? i dont know.
but if not the roster might not be optimized short term but you have a kid possibly stepping into the void next year who was higher recruited than Wolf with multiple power 5 offers and a huge ceiling.
now if he performs with more minutes will he leave? possibly.
will the next kid from dallas w UT and Houston offers follow him? i doubt it.
but there are so many good players now in the grassroots ranks that who's to say you dont find underrecruited gems-miye onis xaivian lee caden pierce even danny wolf etc etc
am i positive about this? not really but anything is possible.
i certainly dont think the ivy league will change it's policy on scholarships or even culturally collectives
lastly i could see collectives coming under federal scrutiny also for tax and other reasons
i wrote about this months ago but dark money pools , the distribution policy and the IRS can be a toxic mix.
thats not a prediction but a possibility.
i had my tax team spend some time on it and thats their view.
they wrote me a 3 page conclusion. it's astounding