Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-05-20 10:26 PM - Post#296125
In response to bison63
What a difference one half to the other. At the end of thr first I was ready to toss in the towel on the season. At the end of the game, I'm thinking we can win this league. Both povs are overreactions, but I do think there is hope. Good win.
Btw, the Bison win probability (Pomeroy) early in the second half was down to 5.5%. After the 17-0 run, it was looking a bit better. Often after a team goes on a big run to catch up after trailing badly, they then kind of run out of gas and allow the opponent to pull ahead again. Today once the Bison caught up, they never relinquished the lead and gradually pulled away.
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Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts: 619
Age: 65
Reg: 07-09-17
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01-06-20 12:50 PM - Post#296145
In response to Bison137
OBSERVATIONS:
1. Tied with Hofstra as easiest win of the year
2. Our Rx post Army was spot on
3. Poor John Griffin (i.e., how does SJ lose to LC
by 20?)
4. Good to be back in the PL
5. If Rice can go north-south (as opposed to east-
west)he will be much more effective. Doesn't
need to finish, just needs to go really hard
UNDER control and kick to the perimeter
6. Offense in the last two second halves seemed
better with Bruce off the floor...coincidence?
(this is where we need to think first/sub later
as opposed to the other way around...can't work
from the assumption that -5 and -9 at the half
is OK across the board
7. Its clear ND does not want to put Spear in the
position of defending the 5. Comparative
performance does not illustrate to me that AT
is a better option or even close to it.
8. Nice to break the skid with the Army win and
possibly gain some confidence deeper into the
lineup
9. Sorry Rhoades was pulled so fast as he is the
type of big defensive body we're gonna need. If
hit that mid-range jumper he would have stayed
longer (don't see him pulling Ellis like that)
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DoCtoR62
Masters Student
Posts: 463
Reg: 05-18-08
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01-06-20 01:57 PM - Post#296154
In response to Bison137
Btw, the Bison win probability (Pomeroy) early in the second half was down to 5.5%.
I've been a stat guy my whole life, but in-game win probabilities cannot go away fast enough for me. There are too many factors that they do not (cannot) consider. Last year when we trailed Army late in the first half, our win probability was 1%. What would Army's have been if we were winning by the same score, a negative pct? It has taken geekdom too far, and that's coming from someone who has been called a geek many times in my life.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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01-06-20 02:12 PM - Post#296156
In response to Old Bison
OBSERVATIONS:
3. Poor John Griffin (i.e., how does SJ lose to LC by 20?)
5. If Rice can go north-south (as opposed to east-
west)he will be much more effective. Doesn't
need to finish, just needs to go really hard
UNDER control and kick to the perimeter
6. Offense in the last two second halves seemed
better with Bruce off the floor...coincidence?
7. Its clear ND does not want to put Spear in the
position of defending the 5. Comparative
performance does not illustrate to me that AT
is a better option or even close to it.
9. Sorry Rhoades was pulled so fast as he is the
type of big defensive body we're gonna need. If hit that mid-range jumper he would have stayed longer (don't see him pulling Ellis like that)
3. St. Joes is a real mess. In addition to that LC loss, they have a 16-point loss to St. Francis, a 39 point loss to Temple, and a 32 point loss to Richmond. Pomeroy ranks them behind eight Patriot League teams. What is amazing is how SJ beat Bradley and UConn at the start of the year.
5. Agree that Rice needs to penetrate more. But right now when he does drive, he makes it too obvious that he has no intention of shooting. Doesn't even look at the rim. Even if a lane opened up the width of the Grand Canyon, I think he would still kick it out.
6. Might not be coincidence. Bruce recently hadn't been scoring much in the lane and his outside shot has totally abandoned him. Like a golfer with the yips. On threes, he is 1-25 this year, after being doing reasonably well on threes the past two years. Also his defensive rebounding has been very weak this year. His defensive rebounding rate is half that of Sotos and Funk, and also way behind Toomer. Even way behind Ellis.
7. Part of Spear's usage may have been dictated by Lafayette having a 7-0 center who showed some surprising ability to back into the lane and score. Spear did play center for a couple of minutes vs Army. But yes, ND clearly prefers him at PF. Now that he is showing an OK stationary three point shot, if he could only develop a couple of moves to the basket, he could be useful on offense.
AS for AT, he does show some talent, but he is just too slow laterally to guard any center with a quick spin or drop step. That problem would be at least partly solved if he went back to his HS playing weight.
8. At some point Rhodes may get more minutes, but right now his offense is non-existent. Missing that mid-range shot was about a 90% probability. If you surrounded him with Funk, Sotos, Toomer, and Ellis, his lack of offense wouldn't be a big deal - but playing him with a few other subs really makes it difficult to score.
As for Ellis, ND has trimmed his minutes significantly. He is averaging 7 mpg over the past nine games, and only played 5 mpg in each of the last two. Right now, he won't put the ball to the floor with any purpose, has no inside or mid-range game and is not good defensively. He needs to show a fair amount of improvement in these areas. At least he has hit an OK percentage of his threes this year.
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Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts: 619
Age: 65
Reg: 07-09-17
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01-06-20 02:29 PM - Post#296158
In response to Bison137
But #2 was the good one! 😂
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Old Bison
Masters Student
Posts: 619
Age: 65
Reg: 07-09-17
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01-06-20 07:58 PM - Post#296170
In response to Old Bison
and #8 - Yes, but Rhoades got 2 minutes and that was rounded UP! 😃
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