Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-08-20 09:18 AM - Post#305972
In response to PennFan10
Here are the two choices:
1. With Jarrod's underwhelming minutes available for the taking, MLL could not take them. In addition, generally speaking, PLAYERS play. Yes, we can find players who emerged in their sophomore year, but again, generally, players that end up playing well were good enough to get off the bench their freshman year.
2. MLL is the rare player who will immediately step in and be average (and even then it will be a drop off considering we had the best big man in a generation graduate).
I know which one I hope is true. But it takes an objective outside perspective to make it obvious which one is more likely to be true. It's cool, we're fans. But let's not act all indignant.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3994
Reg: 11-23-04
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04-08-20 09:26 AM - Post#305973
In response to palestra38
‘38, I haven’t seen MLL, but Jalen Gainey has some athleticism.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-08-20 09:40 AM - Post#305975
In response to Jeff2sf
There were no minutes available last year for a freshman backup center who has not learned a high post game. You cannot compare his situation with freshmen who have an opportunity to make mistakes such as Dingle. You are trying to read into his lack of play as a conclusion highly improbable in light of the great senior center in front of him.
I don't see anyone being indignant, however. Just reacting to Mike's statement that Penn had a "big miss" this year.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-08-20 09:41 AM - Post#305976
In response to Jeff2sf
It's indignant to presume knowledge of a team's recruiting agenda and then call it a "major miss". Pointing that out has nothing to do with bias.
I am suggesting that Penn may (rightly or wrongly) feel just fine with their bigs going into next year and so didn't focus on it in their recruiting. They brought in one of the better overall classes in the league last year (though the "experts" ranked it 4th best) which means the pressure is on for this next recruiting class.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-08-20 09:42 AM - Post#305978
In response to palestra38
I don't know that I'd say Jarrod Simmons mastered the "high post game". MLL shouldn't have taken a minute of AJ's time. In past years I probably would have said he should, so I'm growing. But Jarrod's were available.
"He's spinning the ball on his finger, just take it! Take the ball!!!"
Sure seems people are taking this personally.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32809
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-08-20 09:47 AM - Post#305979
In response to Jeff2sf
Simmons was terrible. But what are you going to do, after Simmons plays a horrible 2 minutes are you going to just put AJ back and hope he can go 40 or go with a freshman who has a completely different game? Simmons did play within the scheme---it is a legitimate criticism of Donahue that he did not device a workable scheme for when MLL was in the game and get him more playing time. But when Penn fell behind the 8 ball with the 2 losses to Princeton, every game became a "must game" and AJ had to be the iron man.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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04-08-20 10:38 AM - Post#305985
In response to palestra38
He's talking about the incoming class, not last year's.
I know exactly what he's talking about and he doesn't often use phrases like "big miss", so that's why I asked. I have no doubt that MLL is being underestimated, and while I don't expect a fully transparent response, it seems this commentary is stemming from somewhere other than the notion that players who can play, do. Obviously next year could be rough to start for Penn and all its youth, but it will be interesting to see what things look like heading into 2021-22.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-08-20 10:39 AM - Post#305986
In response to palestra38
Want to clear up a few things, similar to the Cotton/Kelly situation of a couple years back.
Earlier in his high school career, MLL was a top 10 NE prep recruit at NERR and a top 100/150 guy at multiple recruiting outlets. He had the high-major offers to back those rankings up. This was similar to Cotton (and somewhat similar to Kelly).
He didn't have a great senior campaign, and those offers evaporated. Some of the rankings (normally a lagging indicator) slid in response - NERR dropped him to 25th and at 247 he fell out of the Top 200. This is also similar to Cotton and Kelly.
Typically, true 4-star recruits with the offers to back it up are pretty instant contributors/stars (and this applies with high success rates for consensus 3-star kids with a bevy such offers as well). My point is that you can't view MLL in that caliber of recruit. He's more appropriately viewed through the prism of winning HM All-NEPSAC honors (as opposed to Ledlum who won POY at that level and Dolan who was 2nd team) with mainly Ivy-level offers. That level of player can usually be expected to contribute in the Ivies, but by no means is a lock. Similar to Cotton, who has been an okay rotation player for Yale, and Kelly who hasn't been able to crack the rotation.
So, what that leaves Penn with is needing probably 100-150% of team minutes from a combination of Wang, Simmons and MLL (Penn's bevy of 6'6 players should be able to cover most of the mins at the four). The reason I call not landing bigs in this class a "huge miss," is because Penn is walking into next season with Wang, who has had injury issues, Simmons, who hasn't shown any productivity, and MLL, whose "ready to be an impact player as a soph" vector probably would have included some minutes as a freshman.
There is definitely a scenario where a healthy Wang plus an improved MLL can cover the spot without issue. My point is merely that if I were faced with that huge question mark, I'd feel a lot more safety in numbers, and it seems weird that Penn's preferred strategy would have been to bring no one in to help there.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-08-20 11:16 AM - Post#305992
In response to mrjames
Again, if the coaching staff had prioritized a big and gotten, none, your analysis is appropriate. They didn't, so it's really a difference of opinion, yours vs. experienced D1 coaches.
They may know something we don't, which wouldn't be th first time.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-08-20 11:45 AM - Post#305994
In response to PennFan10
Looked back at Northfield Mt. Hermon 2018-19 stats. MLL was a very efficient big who stood out mostly in blocks per game (3.4) and rebounds (8.3pg).
His scored only 10ppg, but on 72% shooting - meaning he attempted less than 6 shots per game. He didn't attempt a 3 point shot all season and shot 57% on FT's. Not many assists (1.2apg) or steals (.3pg) and .9 turnovers per game.
Clearly, MLL can be a physical presence on defense and can rebound, but based on his stats from NMH, it doesn't look like he was a focus of the offense and likely doesn't have much (any?) range to his offensive game.
Harvard's Mason Forbes could be a good comparison. Forbes saw little time as a freshman but his athleticism and footwork around the basket got him playing time as Chris Lewis' backup as a sophomore. Mason is expected to be Harvard's starting center ... the next time games are played.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 04-08-20 12:04 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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Ranking Next Year’s Recruits
04-08-20 12:03 PM - Post#305998
In response to mrjames
Earlier in his high school career, MLL was a top 10 NE prep recruit at NERR and a top 100/150 guy at multiple recruiting outlets. He had the high-major offers to back those rankings up. This was similar to Cotton (and somewhat similar to Kelly).
He didn't have a great senior campaign, and those offers evaporated. Some of the rankings (normally a lagging indicator) slid in response - NERR dropped him to 25th and at 247 he fell out of the Top 200.
According to VC, between July of 2017 and December of that year MLL received offers from BYU, VCU, StL, Baylor, Cal, RI, GTown, Harvard, and Penn. Those offers may not have been live through 2018 but between April of 2018 and August of 2018 MLL received offers from UConn, Vandy, Ohio State.
He committed to Penn in September of 2018, before the start of his senior year at NMH. Don't offers "evaporate" after you commit somewhwere? Or are we saying Vandy, OSU and UConn were "fake news" 2 months later when he committed to Penn? And do we know if his rankings were affected by his commitment?
Edited by PennFan10 on 04-08-20 12:08 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: anking Next Year’s Recruits
04-08-20 12:23 PM - Post#306004
In response to PennFan10
What I'm saying is that players who have eschewed live, high-major offers to come into this league have hit at extremely high rates and played at extremely high levels. And what I'm also saying is that if you put MLL in that bucket, there is a high probability that you will be disappointed.
If you treat him as a NEPSAC HM choice, mid-level NERR ranked recruit and a 2/3-star guy, you'll have the appropriate expectations (something more like a solid rotation player/starter as an upperclassman).
I've been around these boards for a while. If you want to discount what I have to say as a partisan troll spouting off uninformed, personal opinions, I can't stop you.
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PennFan10
Postdoc
Posts: 3585
Reg: 02-15-15
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04-08-20 12:52 PM - Post#306007
In response to mrjames
The only one spouting off personal opinions is you. What have I said that is personal opinion? You said his offers "Evaporated". Your words/opinion, not mine. You said not getting a C/F prospect was a "Big Miss" your opinion, not mine.
I don't know if MLL will be Egi or Atkinson. You claim to know and the data certainly leans your direction.
I have never discounted what you say (nor has anyone else) in fact I am questioning your fact vs your opinion which you seem to regular confuse.
And if you want resort to name calling and dismissing your personal opinion to blame it on someone else, then you can be the one eyed man in the land of the blind all by yourself.
I get it, you own these boards and have since inception. Have fun with it. I have no interest in posting an honest debate and being attacked for it. CYA.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2691
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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04-08-20 12:55 PM - Post#306008
In response to PennFan10
So, we're now engaged in a spirited debate about a player who didn't play.
Anyone getting tired of being shut in?
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-08-20 01:29 PM - Post#306011
In response to PennFan10
I think you read that wrong...
"I've been around these boards for a while. If you want to discount what I have to say as a partisan troll spouting off uninformed, personal opinions, I can't stop you."
Maybe a dangling modifier issue here, but I did not mean that you were a partisan troll. I meant that I'm being cast as a partisan troll spouting off uninformed, personal opinions as an attempt to discount what I have to say. I'm not really into name calling (aside from the general, fun Ivy ones like calling Cornell, SUNY-Ithaca).
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-08-20 02:05 PM - Post#306015
In response to mrjames
Yes, that kind of escalated. The issue is the use of terms like “failed,†“stumbled,†and “missed,†which are basically opinion terms. They don’t make you a partisan hack. Just spots where analysis starts to bleed into opinion. And it doesn’t really matter if it is quoting somebody else’s opinion. It’s still an opinion (and the people you are referencing have a vested interest and partisan viewpoint).
At the very least, you should save the “failed†opinion for years when we only get Dan Solomito.
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besnoah
Masters Student
Posts: 803
Reg: 12-14-05
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04-08-20 02:24 PM - Post#306018
In response to SomeGuy
Mike, as the person who thought I was very gently suggesting that you sometimes like tweaking Penn fans, I am sorry that you have taken it to heart as some kind of personal attack made in an effort to damage your credibility rather than an effort to suggest that sometimes you say something somewhat provocative as many folks on a message board are predisposed to do.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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04-08-20 02:35 PM - Post#306020
In response to SomeGuy
From what I understand, the notion that Penn did not prioritize any bigs and thus is fine not having landed one challenges credulity. That they missed on bigs that they felt would have moved the needle and didn't want to pull the trigger on lower-level bigs is entirely possible - I don't really know that answer, aside from the limited stuff I've seen out there publicly.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6412
Reg: 11-22-04
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04-08-20 03:13 PM - Post#306023
In response to mrjames
Yes, I think we agree there. No question that there was a big fish or two that we were after.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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04-09-20 07:30 PM - Post#306071
In response to SomeGuy
After the 2019 class Penn had they could afford a "light" class. No reason to think that MLL won't be a good player from the minutes I saw him play this year.
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