penn nation
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05-14-20 04:53 PM - Post#307378
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Considering the seating capacity at Harvard, it surely does.
In a less snarky vein, I wonder how many lives Harvard saved by being the canary in the coal mine last year?
Not just Ivy League, but did our cancellation influence cancellations of other conference tournaments days later?
I would hold the tournament at Lavietes every year! Saves lives!
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 05-14-20 05:12 PM - Post#307379
In response to penn nation
I believe Harvard pulled out of hockey shortly thereafter. Game was going to be at RPI with no fans.
Remember, Harvard's push to cancel game was a result of the Biogen mess which made Cambridge a hot spot. I can see where it was initially thought that a gathering in Cambridge was uniquely impacted - ahead of the curve if you will.
My extended family was in Lavietes for the final weekend vs Brown/Yale. Only one spectator was wearing a mask. Speaking of the phrase "smartest guy in the room" - and at Harvard no less! (Yes, I know Penn fans will argue that it was a pretty small room)
Can't believe I didn't hear of anyone coming down with COVID-19 from that weekend. Although given that it was early March likely some did.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 05-14-20 05:13 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Quakers03
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05-14-20 05:41 PM - Post#307380
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
We were certainly aware that last weekend, but no one at the Palestra was wearing a mask. The only change was that the player/kid pregame and halftime high fives were executed with elbows.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 48
Reg: 03-18-19
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05-14-20 06:13 PM - Post#307381
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Thank you for doing the work you do.
Hiv is a tough analogy but in some ways a hopeful one.
Having had someone close to me with a 109 deg fever just get out who was on a ventilator for 2 weeks (along with his wife) the treatment options are possible if not probable.
I for one don’t want anyone to go through this even it is a miracle so far!
I am hopeful on a vaccine and more so on treatment but obviously it’s scary and uncertain which is my point.
But time , human ingenuity and capital should help arbitrage some facet of this I believe.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
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Loc: New Jersey
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06-30-20 12:12 AM - Post#309740
In response to james
Feeling very pessimistic, actually, sort of scared:
https://apple.news/A9wTp-0LLQ86Jtq7XQ-d BTA
Deputy director of CDC - who has been Interim Director of the CDC twice under Trump, says it’s too late. There is way too much virus in the US to contain it.
Basketball in 2020-21 may not be our major concern for much longer.
Best of luck and health to you all.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
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Reg: 12-14-09
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06-30-20 12:45 AM - Post#309741
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Feeling very pessimistic, actually, sort of scared:
https://apple.news/A9wTp-0LLQ86Jtq7XQ-d BTA
Deputy director of CDC - who has been Interim Director of the CDC twice under Trump, says it’s too late. There is way too much virus in the US to contain it.
Basketball in 2020-21 may not be our major concern for much longer.
Best of luck and health to you all.
I echo your pessimism. Watching as new infections spike across the South, the Southwest and the West, I can't shake the feeling that MLB, the NBA and NFL are playing with fire, trying to resume or start their seasons. Players are testing positive, and there's no guarantee that the health and safety protocols being put into place will be effective enough.
Everything I've read tells me we should be erring on the side of caution.
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palestra38
Professor
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06-30-20 07:43 AM - Post#309742
In response to weinhauers_ghost
There is too much money in Pro Ball not to play. While a few will opt out, the leagues will just create taxi squads of extra players, so anyone who tests positive can sit out until the tests come back negative. They are going to play through it.
College ball is a different story. I agree---unless something changes rapidly, i.e., vaccine or it "suddenly disappears like magic", I don't see it happening. College players interact with other students and it is not possible to have a taxi squad
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penn nation
Professor
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 06-30-20 09:16 AM - Post#309744
In response to palestra38
There is too much money in Pro Ball not to play. While a few will opt out, the leagues will just create taxi squads of extra players, so anyone who tests positive can sit out until the tests come back negative. They are going to play through it.
Well, only up until a certain point. If you have a team (or two or three) that has a noticeable number of key players out, the taxi squad replacements are not going to allow for truly competitive matchups.
Edited by penn nation on 06-30-20 09:16 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 06-30-20 09:32 AM - Post#309745
In response to penn nation
True, but baseball certainly played on during WW II with one armed players and a lot of military rejects. Plus, the likelihood is that players who get it will be out from 10 days to 2 weeks, and then return.
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ivyrules
Freshman
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Age: 51
Reg: 11-27-17
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06-30-20 10:27 AM - Post#309746
In response to palestra38
The disease is thriving in our country. Hard to imagine a normal season, let alone one at all. If I am a senior with potential to grad transfer to an institution that allows for a big time basketball experience and or a free year (scholarship) of grad school in an area of interest, I am certainly beginning to look around at options.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-30-20 11:29 AM - Post#309747
In response to ivyrules
This is one way to make sure the college teams can play: https://nypost.com/2020/06/30/boomer-esi ason-sugge...
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-30-20 11:57 AM - Post#309748
In response to palestra38
That's quite a theory. They may not be actively trying to infect the kids, just letting them be careless and skimping on the preventative measures. There must be vulnerable people among coaches/staff/families though; and what if one of the kids actually dies of it? It's not the colleges have immunity from litigation. If this is true at all, it will surely blow up on them.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32685
Reg: 11-21-04
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06-30-20 12:08 PM - Post#309749
In response to Streamers
Maybe, but the odds of a college athlete dying from Covid-19 is very very small. And I think this is a pretty accurate understanding of how Big Time college athletics works.
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
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06-30-20 01:23 PM - Post#309750
In response to palestra38
Let's say it is 1 in 500 if infected... there are nearly 10,000 D1A football players... assume a 50% infection rate in the locker room and on the field even with frequent testing. That's 10 dead kids.
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mobrien
Senior
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Loc: New York
Reg: 04-18-17
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06-30-20 02:02 PM - Post#309751
In response to Streamers
I can't see how anyone is going to play any sport in the middle of an escalating epidemic. Players would inevitably get sick, their whole teams would then have to quarantine, and then what? They postpone the game? They forfeit? It'd be dumb, not to mention incredibly reckless given the very real risk that some players might suffer lasting health consequences, if not die.
The idea that the NBA, for example, is going to be playing game in Florida in a month's time just seems utterly delusional. I'm not even joking, they'd be better off playing the games in New Zealand. Have all the players quarantine there for 2 weeks, have another 4 weeks of training camp, and then play the games at 1pm New Zealand time so they air in prime time on the East Coast here.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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06-30-20 02:50 PM - Post#309752
In response to Streamers
No it isn't. Judging from the numbers I have seen, deaths in 20 year olds without preexisting conditions is almost unheard of. Indeed, in NYC, where they have put up the numbers, there are no deaths among that age group for those known to have no underlying conditions (.03% for those for whom it is not known if they have preexisting conditions). And these generally are kids in excellent shape with no respiratory problems. So whether it comes from the team or discussed among themselves, it is a highly successful strategy (assuming that you gain immunity once exposed--something we should know by now but do not) with very little risk.
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penn nation
Professor
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Reg: 12-02-04
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06-30-20 03:12 PM - Post#309754
In response to palestra38
We have since seen far different outcomes in the South and West. The hospitals now are seeing a noticeably higher proportion of younger individuals than previously.
The good news, up to this point, is that relatively few of them have died...so far. But that should in no way be interpreted as a signal that it's laissez faire for young people.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 06-30-20 03:17 PM - Post#309755
In response to penn nation
What you and I may think really doesn't matter if they think they will have no really bad outcome and it will enable them to play without worrying about the virus during the season.
Let's remember, when NY was in the heart of the pandemic, there was far less testing so in all likelihood, the prevalence of the virus among younger people was pretty much the same as it is in the South--it's just that older people are taking more precautions now.
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penn nation
Professor
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Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: If there is no Ivy basketball season next year 06-30-20 03:23 PM - Post#309756
In response to palestra38
Agreed that there was less testing but notwithstanding the ramped up testing the current infection, transmission and hospitalization rates are nonetheless highly troubling in many of the most affected states.
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Streamers
Professor
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Loc: NW Philadelphia
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06-30-20 03:31 PM - Post#309757
In response to palestra38
Not sure where the NYC data came from, but it was very hard for me to find mortality data broken down by age group AND the presence of pre-existing conditions. CDC reports 85 deaths to date for men in the 15-24 age bracket. There is no breakdown of pre-existing conditions.It is generally accepted that the risk is 10x for those; so that would be 8 countrywide. So, let's concede nobody dies among the players, but what about families, coaches, staff, other students they come in contact with?
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