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Username Post: Around the Patriot League 2020-21        (Topic#24344)
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 14848
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
07-09-20 08:43 PM - Post#310222    
    In response to jkrun80

Agree it is a mistake. A shortened schedule is likely doable.




 
bison63 
Postdoc
Posts: 3598

Reg: 01-23-06
07-10-20 09:53 AM - Post#310234    
    In response to jkrun80

It raises the question of when DO you play? What is magic about the Fall semester? Seems to me that if you do not want to play now, then why would you play at all until there is a vaccine? So why not just say that and be done with it? Btw, imho, it is not a mistake, but what do I know. ( For example, anybody playing FB under these circumstance has got to be a little nuts.)

 
Bison137 
Professor
Posts: 14848
Bison137
Reg: 01-23-06
Around the Patriot League 2020-21
07-10-20 12:33 PM - Post#310243    
    In response to bison63

I think the biggest issue when it comes to sports is how to keep the older coaches safe. For athletes without major pre-existing conditions, the risk of death from covid-19 is extraordinarily low.

For example, per CDC stats, the percentage of people aged 15-24 who have died from covid-19 is 0.000331% (142 deaths in a population of about 43 million). That means for each one million people aged 15-24 that just over three have died from this virus. And that includes those with pre-existing conditions. Since covid has been rampant for about four months, triple the above numbers to get a yearly estimate of 426 total deaths, i.e. 10 per million if the virus remains at the levels of March through June.

For comparison, the death rate in auto accidents is about 0.026645% for the 16-25 age group, almost 30 times as high - with about 266 deaths per one million of population . And the percentage of the 15-24 population who died from drug overdoses is approximately .01%, meaning about 100 persons in a population of one million died from that cause in 2018.

Comparing total deaths for the 15-24 age group, it looks like this:

Total Covid deaths (annualized) = 426 *
Total auto deaths = 11,308 (16-25 age group)
Total overdose deaths = 4300

* Assuming virus continues to kill at the same rate for an entire year

Note that there are different ways to interpret these numbers - but the general conclusion would be the same.

One other factor is that in the northeast, covid has been controlled reasonably well in the past month. Union County, fwiw, has had a low death rate - way below the Pennsylvania average.

At this point I am not arguing to play a full sports schedule but rather am advocating a wait-and-see approach. Given the low risk to college age students, go with the original plan to start games in late September and see if the plans already in place are sufficient to control things. if not, sports could still be cancelled with no difficulty around Labor Day.




 
jkrun80 
Postdoc
Posts: 2937

Age: 61
Reg: 05-07-12
07-10-20 01:06 PM - Post#310245    
    In response to Bison137

I am in favor of a Patriot League only schedule to further limit risk. It eliminates almost all overnight travel. You could even schedule games with Boston and HC at a neutral site midway between. If you assure that all the league teams are adhering to the same safety standards, the risks are minuscule.

That's better than depriving student athletes of an integral part of their college experience.

 
MrPhillie 
Postdoc
Posts: 2340
MrPhillie
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
07-10-20 10:29 PM - Post#310254    
    In response to jkrun80

Perhaps mortality rate is low in younger people but from what I’ve read, there are a myriad of medical issues that can arise from contracting the virus, some of which potentially may not show up right away. Seems taking risks with people’s lives and quality of lives (above and beyond the known risks of playing football pre-Covid) to play a sport is rather crazy.

 
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