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Username Post: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now        (Topic#24774)
UPIA1968 
Masters Student
Posts: 873
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
10-24-20 08:22 AM - Post#315350    
    In response to LocalTiger

The prohibition of Penn Basketball is based on a set of generic assumptions, the same assumptions that have been used to justify a host of limitations on American social interactions. They are:
1. All Americans are at grave risks of death from the COVID virus.
2. Interactions, such as basketball practice increase that risk.
3. Even if a person survives his or her infection from the virus they become a risk to the rest of us.
Let’s examine those generalizations in the specifics of Ivy League basketball.
1- Ivy League basketball players are at grave risks of death from the COVID virus. The facts show that young, healthy people are not at grave risk of death from the COVID virus. The virus has killed less than .00007% of Americans in that category. Check that number if you like. You will find a very small result whatever source and assumptions you use. Ivy League basketball players are not at a grave risk of death from the COVID virus.
2- Basketball participation increase the risk of grave health effects from the COVID virus. Despite the suspension of the program, the players are still are playing pickup basketball, interacting with their friends, going to the store, living with their families, and kissing their significant others. In addition, participation in well-supervised basketball practice, with access to good medical care, should reduce the risk of infection and serious health effects. Ivy League basketball participation does not increase a grave risk of death to its participants. It is more likely to reduce that risk.
3- Ivy League basketball players are a risk to the rest of us. Ivy League basketball players already interact with us regularly. If anything, the lives of Division One athletes reduces their contact with the rest of us, given the time in practice, film study and simple exhaustion. Moreover, participation in an organized program will include regular testing. For the first time, then, the athlete will know if they are a transmission risk and will be given proper counseling on what to do until they are no longer a risk to others. Ivy League basketball will decrease the risk of its players infecting the rest of us
What have I missed here? Yes, the COVID contagion is a troubling event requiring a significant response from our health care system and targeted management of interactions according to the specific risks of those interactions. Giving free tickets to retirement village residents to the Palestra would be foolish. Cancelling the entire basketball season because a player might visit one of those facilities is equally foolish. Actually, this discussion should be about the larger limitations on the University. There are many aspects of Penn life and academics that are shut down. This same logic applies to them.


 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4084

Reg: 11-22-04
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 08:25 AM - Post#315351    
    In response to Streamers

I don’t know, I truly don’t but I really don’t think you need White House to reach this equilibrium*. The south tried virtually nothing and still got there in the summer.

* - this is not to be confused with a good thing. To reach equilibrium is frankly shameful. We shouldn’t want to reach this step and if we had real leadership, we wouldn’t. I’m merely saying there may well be a place before herd immunity where this stops and isn’t just a hockey stick moving up and to the right. Otherwise explain Florida and other southern states. Weather isn’t it. It was hot as the cases rose and as the cases went down

 
Streamers 
Professor
Posts: 5142
Streamers
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 11:22 AM - Post#315352    
    In response to Jeff2sf

  • Jeff2sf Said:
I don’t know, I truly don’t but I really don’t think you need White House to reach this equilibrium*. The south tried virtually nothing and still got there in the summer.



I just took a look at the recent state by state trends. In the South, Florida has not seen the second wave yet, along with GA and a few others. Arkansas and Alabama are there now, along with most of the midwest. Mid-Atlantic is interesting. PA and DE are definitely there, the result of the weather and some complacency after a quiet summer. NY, CT and NJ (sort of) less so due to better testing/tracing and quick fingers on the restrictions trigger. In short, we are nowhere near any equilibrium and tracking toward 300,000+ deaths (under counted for sure, especially in states like FL where they are cooking the books) by year end. This is going to make the spring look good from a hospital mortality perspective even if the mortality rate remains low.

Set this for US states to follow the trends

Edited by Streamers on 10-24-20 11:26 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5961

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 12:18 PM - Post#315353    
    In response to Streamers

So, I obviously don’t come at this problem from the angle of an epidemiologist. About the biological specifics of the virus, I only know what I read.

At the same time, I’ve spent a lot of time with the data on outcomes, so I do have some perspective on that piece from a data science angle.

From March until schools reopened around Labor Day, the pattern in different localities was for the virus to take hold and explode relatively unchecked until the locality hit 20-25% antibody rates. That’s what we saw in NYC. It’s what we saw in FL. And so on. You could think of 20-25% as “herd immunity at that behavior level.”

That being said, as behavior changed with some kids going back to schools and some colleges opening, we will likely need a new, higher antibody rate to be “herd immunity at that new behavior level.” That’s why we’re seeing the true spikes in the localities that didn’t previously have one (they need to get all the way up to that behavior-adjusted herd immunity level to begin with) and persistent, concerning-but-not-quite- spiking rises in daily cases in states that previously hit that 20-25% antibody rate but now need a higher antibody rate as more people expose themselves by engaging in behavior that they didn’t prior to Labor Day.

Now, many will argue: “That’s just cases.” The thing is that on a macro level, cases and deaths track pretty well with each other. While I agree with the notion that death rates are trivially different from zero among the college-aged population, the Case Fatality Rate has tended to be a little under 2% since the virus caught the NE off guard and threw off huge CFR numbers. That consistent CFR has debunked this notion that cases among younger folks are irrelevant - along with the shifts in a state like FL, which did indeed have a strong decline in the median age during the early part of its spike only to have the median age bounce right back up on a lag. The notion that you can let the virus run wild among one group of people and have it not escape to impact other groups doesn’t seem realistic from the data.

I want to be clear, though. The Ivy League *could* play a basketball season safely. We have some of the best resources in the world at our disposal. We could probably figure this out. I also think that if we hit that new “herd immunity at that behavior level” threshold quickly, we may be in another case lull by January with few remaining localities in our country that haven’t experienced an outbreak. But that’s a much different question than where is the Ivy League presidents’ threshold for risk, and what are they likely to do...

 
palestra38 
Professor
Posts: 25903

Reg: 11-21-04
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 12:50 PM - Post#315354    
    In response to mrjames

By "risk", you mean actuarial legal liability risk. That's what they care about. The Power Conferences are making their players sign waivers--whether or not they are enforceable, Ivy Presidents are unlikely to be willing to require them and insurers probably insist on them. In my opinion, that's the real sticking point.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5961

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 01:14 PM - Post#315355    
    In response to palestra38

I didn’t necessarily mean that, though that may very well be the more important risk (add not a lawyer to not an epidemiologist). I just meant that the risk of there being an outbreak during the season would be too much optically for them to handle, though the legal risk could indeed be more of a non-starter...

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4084

Reg: 11-22-04
10-24-20 01:23 PM - Post#315356    
    In response to mrjames

When I was referring to equilibrium, I meant “herd immunity at a behavioral level” but I’ve seen epidemiologists get really salty when you use herd immunity for not actual herd immunity.

Mike have you seen any papers on this? Also I was banking on a pull back of behavior (but not lockdown to getting us to where 25% or whatever is ok.

 
mrjames 
Professor
Posts: 5961

Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
10-24-20 02:51 PM - Post#315357    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Papers, no. But I have scripts that pull in all of the data from the COVID Tracking Project and other sources, and many of those states include their antibody testing results in there. FL started to come back down to earth when their marginal antibody positive rate touched 20%. NYC reported a 25% antibody positive rate just after the wave had passed the city. TX hasn't quite hit that antibody level yet (~15%) and perhaps unsurprisingly, they haven't been able to keep the positive rate down during this current wave (now back up near 10%).

Nowhere near all states report antibodies, but 20-25% seems to be the number for those that did (at least at the behavior level over the summer).

Then, you get into all of the scientist stuff of how long antibodies last and whether they confer full protection and other stuff that I don't know...

 
OldBig5 
Senior
Posts: 307

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
10-24-20 06:12 PM - Post#315358    
    In response to UPIA1968

"1. All Americans are at grave risks of death from the COVID virus"

No one is saying that at all. Older and those with other diseases are the most vulnerable. They sometimes catch it from younger folks who have no or minor symptoms. That's the issue. It's a very contagious virus. And it puts a strain on our health care system which includes those who do not die. Hospitalizations from COVID 19 are up in most states.

I don't have a major issue with the Ivy league playing basketball but you have really twisted the issue.

 
UPIA1968 
Masters Student
Posts: 873
UPIA1968
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
10-24-20 08:09 PM - Post#315359    
    In response to OldBig5

People including the CDC were saying that COVID put us all at grave risk. They don't day it now because they were wrong.

 
OldBig5 
Senior
Posts: 307

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
10-24-20 11:57 PM - Post#315360    
    In response to UPIA1968

Amazing that the scientists have learned more about a new disease as time has gone on. Also amazing that public health officials would want to err on the side of caution as people were dying from a new disease they knew little about. LOL.

This is like saying well back in March they told me a mask would not help much so I will not wear one now. (BTW, I wore a mask from the start because it is common sense).

They also didn't realize at the start that having patients lie on their stomachs would help with breathing.

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Reg: 11-29-04
It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-25-20 01:30 AM - Post#315361    
    In response to OldBig5

Please, let's keep this about Penn Basketball. This newsgroup is a retreat for me from all the other things happening in the world and with me individually. I disagree with some of you, which is clear since we have the polar ends covered here. I don't even want to say which view I take here. I'd rather just enjoy Penn basketball news and conjecture here. Period.

Edited by Penndemonium on 10-25-20 01:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
Kwaequer 
Postdoc
Posts: 2135

Age: 39
Reg: 12-20-15
10-25-20 08:25 PM - Post#315380    
    In response to OldBig5

Come on man.

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4084

Reg: 11-22-04
10-26-20 07:44 AM - Post#315383    
    In response to Kwaequer

this is the kinda anecdotal garbage that just drives me nuts and makes me think journalists are stoking fear: https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-ryquell-armstead- jagu...

I'm very sorry that Ryquell is struggling so much with COVID. But to cite this case as evidence that you were right and the NFL shouldn't play... how paternalistic/maternalist ic this is to tell 25 year olds they can't earn in excess of half a million dollars just because you might have a long term illness? And of course that presupposes that 25 year olds are going to sit at home ensconced in a bubble when of course all evidence points to that not happening. It's infuriating...

 
Penndemonium 
PhD Student
Posts: 1104

Reg: 11-29-04
10-26-20 02:16 PM - Post#315419    
    In response to Jeff2sf

Off topic board, please. Nothing Quaker basketball related here at all. I have too many places in life to debate covid, but only one to debate Penn basketball...

 
Jeff2sf 
Postdoc
Posts: 4084

Reg: 11-22-04
10-26-20 02:27 PM - Post#315423    
    In response to Penndemonium

Nahhh, just don't come into this thread. When basketball resumes, I'll be more OT respectful.

 
OldBig5 
Senior
Posts: 307

Age: 62
Reg: 02-18-18
Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-28-20 12:39 PM - Post#315608    
    In response to Penndemonium

  • Penndemonium Said:
Please, let's keep this about Penn Basketball. This newsgroup is a retreat for me from all the other things happening in the world and with me individually. I disagree with some of you, which is clear since we have the polar ends covered here. I don't even want to say which view I take here. I'd rather just enjoy Penn basketball news and conjecture here. Period.


Agree. But I only have one post in this thread out of 115.

 
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