penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-22-20 05:12 PM - Post#315268
In response to palestra38
That being said, I see no harm in having a bubble tournament that puts no one in harm's way.
From a public health perspective, there shouldn't be any issues.
But, as has been pointed out, why privilege athletics over every other type of non-academic activity and, even within the realm of athletics, why privilege basketball over all other sports?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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10-22-20 05:40 PM - Post#315271
In response to mrjames
I just wonder how people would be approaching this disease if the death rate were the same but the outcomes were more randomly distributed across all demographics.
Today according to the WaPo count, we're already over 70,000 new daily cases. Prior to today, we went over 70,000 only four other times.
As I'm sure you know, the current areas with the highest per capita rates are in more rural parts of the country where many facilities are already taxed to the limit. Up until now, some of these areas had not been significantly impacted by COVID.
Overall, of course, there's no question that the effects up until now have been more concentrated among certain demographics.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-22-20 05:43 PM - Post#315272
In response to penn nation
I just wonder how people would be approaching this disease if the death rate were the same but the outcomes were more randomly distributed across all demographics.
Today according to the WaPo count, we're already over 70,000 new daily cases. Prior to today, we went over 70,000 only four other times.
As I'm sure you know, the current areas with the highest per capita rates are in more rural parts of the country where many facilities are already taxed to the limit. Up until now, some of these areas had not been significantly impacted by COVID.
PN, I object to this. The only reason we have only had 4 days of 70k is because we didn't have enough tests to count those.
Now, of course, some people in bad faith will write off 70k positives and say "but we're testing more". I will not do it. Things are getting bad. But the 70k number is deceptive and you know it's deceptive. Don't over-reach.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 3992
Reg: 11-23-04
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10-22-20 05:53 PM - Post#315274
In response to Jeff2sf
Can we move this over to the Covid bored?
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-22-20 05:56 PM - Post#315275
In response to Old Bear
I mean, I'd hear you more on that OB if there wasn't a lack of a season meaning there's no basketball to talk about!
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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10-22-20 06:09 PM - Post#315276
In response to Jeff2sf
Last comment and the rest can go on OTB.
The rise in number of daily tests does not fully account for the rise in daily cases.
The per capita rates in any number of these more rural states are an all time high. Moreover, in just about every state now the positive rates (7 day average) are over 1%. The virus has never been as widespread in this country as it is at this very moment.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-22-20 06:11 PM - Post#315277
In response to penn nation
yes, rise in tests does not account - things are in a bad way. still you need to do better in how you phrase things. your last paragraph above is fair.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-22-20 08:14 PM - Post#315281
In response to penn nation
Sorry - just to clarify, what I mean is that if deaths weren’t heavily skewed toward older and certain medical conditions but rather deaths were completely random across age, gender, medical history, etc. If everyone that got it had an equal chance to die, I’m curious if people would approach it differently.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21193
Reg: 12-02-04
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It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-22-20 08:38 PM - Post#315282
In response to mrjames
I got what you said and meant. Older males (and non-Caucasian ones in particular), particularly those with pre-existing conditions/co-morbidities , have been the biggest losers to date.
For the first few months, geography was also a determining factor. At this point, it no longer is.
Edited by penn nation on 10-22-20 08:39 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12530
Reg: 12-07-04
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Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-23-20 12:11 PM - Post#315297
In response to Jeff2sf
But the reality ALSO is that a lot of kids AREN'T doing fine. They don't have parents who can support them while the parent works from home. And the parents may well be downshifting out of their career (women especially).
I hate to say it, but this isn't much different than in non-COVID times. The students with support at home do well and others struggle.
As for being short-sighted, to me short-sighted is just writing off the long-term effects of something we still know very little about. Short sighted is when 80% of parents in my district (many of them stay at home parents who just want their kids back in school) are choosing to send their students back to school in the beginning of November, right as this is about to explode again. While I hear your argument that they could have potentially opened in September and October, again I blame our national leadership. Had we used those months (both early when he hid it and then all summer when we saw what was coming) to plan, we could have come up with solutions like outside lessons or other actions that would have made all of us feel safer. As someone with a wife who teaches 4th grade, I had NO interest in her going back. Maybe that makes me selfish, but I tend to think choosing health isn't exactly selfish. Certainly not like those who still won't wear masks.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
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10-23-20 03:39 PM - Post#315326
In response to rbg
With respect to long-haulers, the NYT has an article from yesterday (updated this afternoon) that focuses on teens with long term effects. The article has interviews with people age 12, 14, and 19. The 19 year old is a member of the Johns Hopkins Cross County and Track & Field teams.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/well/famil y/cor...
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-23-20 03:50 PM - Post#315329
In response to rbg
An N of 3 doesn't really tell us much does it?
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3050
Reg: 10-20-14
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10-23-20 04:02 PM - Post#315330
In response to Jeff2sf
Yes, but I think the important thing (as a society and as people curious about the resumption of athletics this winter) is to see if the number of these cases become more than anecdotal.
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-23-20 04:14 PM - Post#315331
In response to rbg
great so find those articles. to me the NYT article is just fear porn.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-23-20 04:34 PM - Post#315333
In response to Jeff2sf
This coronavirus is the strangest virus I've ever heard of. It's very dangerous the way it spreads. It is so mysterious the way it lurks in schools, but then dies at Home Depot. It can wreak havoc in churches; praying people are exceptionally vulnerable! Although it’s mind-boggling how it vanishes when people stand close together holding signs, destroying businesses, homes, property, monuments, etc. Yet, standing to watch a marathon or a concert triggers its wrath. It is sneaky. It can spread when buying clothes at Kohl's but not at Target. It is non-alcoholic. It can't spread when you are buying beer. It lives for two days on Amazon boxes, you must wait 48 hours to touch them but It can't survive on Dunkin Donuts coffee cups, so enjoying a hot cup of joe is safe. It is the most curious thing, how it lives on basketballs, baseball bats and ballet bars, but dies on WWE ropes and Walmart shopping carts. It is spread by hair stylists, dog groomers, and dentists, but not by bank tellers, cashiers, and fast food workers. It's so smart. It won’t bother the first 10 people but it knows when the 11th person shows up so be careful if that’s you. It even knows what you want vs what you need. If you want a massage or your nails done it is very actively on the prowl and not even a mask can stop it but If you need a plumber, it is weak, and a mask will keep it away. It also seems to be most dangerous after 10:00 pm so restaurants and bars must close alcohol sales before the virus comes out and wreaks havoc upon the populations. Whoever heard of such a smart sneaky virus?!
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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10-23-20 05:20 PM - Post#315336
In response to 13otto
::facepalm::
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Jeff2sf
Postdoc
Posts: 4466
Reg: 11-22-04
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It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 07:43 AM - Post#315344
In response to mrjames
Much almost like politics with the virus deniers and the lock down lovers, there seems to be almost no room for nuance so let me just add here for posterity that I believe the next 3 months are going to be awful. My only hope is that we reach some sort of equilibrium (not exactly herd immunity) where just enough folks distance and wear masks to reverse this because I don’t believe there’s any will for a lockdown. But unless the ivy presidents are gonna do a bubble (they aren’t), there is absolutely zero chance the conditions in Jan feb will support playing. There will be 2x more virus at least in the community at that time.
I don’t know if equilibrium is the right word but somehow Arizona and Florida beat back their summer peak with little government intervention. I have no idea how though
Edited by Jeff2sf on 10-24-20 07:45 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8220
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: It’s hard being a Pennfan right now
10-24-20 08:48 AM - Post#315346
In response to Jeff2sf
I agree with you. I also think the only way to achieve this ‘equilibrium’ state is for (1) leadership from the WH, and sadly (2) enough of the holdouts are impacted personally by losing friends and loved ones to get the message. We are hundreds of thousands of additional deaths from there as the health systems in many areas collapse.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 430
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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10-24-20 08:58 AM - Post#315348
In response to Streamers
Potion took the Iona job? Do you think that pays more than Penn State?
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 430
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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10-24-20 08:59 AM - Post#315349
In response to LocalTiger
Pitino
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