Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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03-09-21 10:55 PM - Post#321675
Men's Basketball set for semifinal clash with Colgate
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Steve
Freshman
Posts: 69
Age: 65
Reg: 08-12-09
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03-10-21 03:15 AM - Post#321678
In response to Bison137
Some thoughts from a Colgate fan's perspective in advance of the semifinal.
1. The line for Colgate-Bucknell opened at -15 for CU, and it is now down to 13-14 per Vegas Insider. That is incredibly high.
I remember watching a program on Showtime about sports bettors and one of the guys said that he had a big edge on the mid-major level and lower in D1 because the bookmakers weren't paying as much attention.
Well it appears they don't know about BU with Meeks vs. BU without John Meeks, because BU with Meeks is not a 14-point dog. I'm not betting against my own team, but if I was an impartial observer, I'd hammer Bucknell and the points.
2. Which leads me to talking about Meeks, and I'd be a fool to not worry about him tremendously. Obviously you all know how good he is.
My concerns are compounded by the fact that I have no idea if Jeff Woodward is playing. He was out for the BU game, no explanation given except that he was "unavailable."
He's been fantastic for Colgate in his freshman year, and he's another body to at least try to slow Meeks down from dominating the game in the post.
On the bright side, Sam Thomson did well as the de-facto backup 5 behind Keegan Records against BU, so maybe he continues that trend.
3. On the plus side for Gate, I can't imagine they shoot as poorly as they did against Boston again. Of course, it's possible, but Colgate shot 25% from 3 and 61.5% from the FT line and still scored 77. Those are well below their baselines for the year of 37.2% from 3 and 73.2% from FT.
4. I think the Raiders ultimately go as far as Burns takes them. He's the straw that stirs the drink, to quote Reggie Jackson, even if the rest of the rotation has largely been excellent.
Case in point: There was a pivotal stretch in the second half vs Boston U where Burns had 7 points in a quick span to help keep the Terriers at arm's length. He just took over the game during a really sluggish portion of the second half.
Colgate isn't winning this game if Burns goes something like 3-of-12 for 11 points. I don't think that happens, but this team ultimately follows his lead.
5. Tourney time is Jack Ferguson time. When given the opportunity, he's shined in the playoffs. 16 in 20 minutes vs Boston this year. 17 last year off the bench vs Boston in the PLT Final, and 13 the game before vs Lafayette. 19 vs Navy in 18 minutes in the 2019 PLT semis.
6. I think an unsung hero steps up for Gate. That was Ryan Moffatt last week with the 6-pt, 7-reb performance. My guess is Thomson again if Woodward doesn't play. He gave the Raiders some much-needed minutes to give Records some rest. Oliver Lynch-Daniels is a wild card. He has been good in limited action. I could see him sticking a few big 3's.
***
Overall, I think Gate wins and that it's the Burns and Ferguson show in a high-scoring game. I think Meeks goes off again for 25-plus points and that BU has a good offensive game. I'm also worried about Rice and Funk -- they'll get theirs.
I'll take Bucknell plus the points, Colgate on the moneyline and the over. I'll go with Colgate by 6-8 after they make their free throws down the stretch. But as I said before, I'm conditioned to think Bucknell always has a chance, so if I'm sitting dejected 24 hours from now, it wouldn't be a surprise. I suppose I'd jump on your bandwagon for next Sunday.
Hopefully not though. I enjoy rooting for this great group of guys.
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HuskyColonial
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Age: 50
Reg: 02-17-12
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03-10-21 09:32 AM - Post#321679
In response to Steve
This is a very thoughtful analysis! Thanks for the insights on Colgate and let’s hope for a good spirited contest where both teams feel they gave their all to win.
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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03-10-21 04:58 PM - Post#321720
In response to Steve
Steve, my degenerate gambler nephew just plunked down a bet on Bucknell. He was excited to get 13 points.
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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nh2032
Sophomore
Posts: 185
Reg: 02-28-06
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03-10-21 05:31 PM - Post#321721
In response to Bison89
Steve, my degenerate gambler nephew just plunked down a bet on Bucknell. He was excited to get 13 points.
Looks like he's not the only one. The score app I use shows the line moving from -14 to -11.5 so far today.
It's a beautiful 60 degree day in Upstate NY to break some Raider hearts.
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Steve
Freshman
Posts: 69
Age: 65
Reg: 08-12-09
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03-10-21 05:57 PM - Post#321722
In response to Bison89
It's literally as if someone looked at the Sagarin ratings without context, did the math and figured 15 was the right line.
Sagarin has Gate 12 points better on a neutral floor plus three with the home court edge.
Obviously, the Bucknell rating takes into account all games and is sans the context of its performance with Meeks.
I don't care if Colgate wins by 30 today -- it was still a perplexing line. If they play this game 100 times, Colgate isn't outscoring Bucknell by 15 on average.
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res
Masters Student
Posts: 839
Reg: 03-21-06
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03-10-21 06:33 PM - Post#321725
In response to Steve
Probably not Sagarin, but yes. Look at any initial line and you will find it rarely varies much from kenpom. What bettors do with that is up to them, of course, but the line at gametime doesn't usually stray far. There's a reason for that. Pomeroy has demonstrated his metric is as good a predictor as any
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res
Masters Student
Posts: 839
Reg: 03-21-06
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03-10-21 06:36 PM - Post#321726
In response to res
This year, of course, is more difficult than ever for any metric of this sort, particularly for Patriot League games.
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res
Masters Student
Posts: 839
Reg: 03-21-06
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03-10-21 08:31 PM - Post#321735
In response to res
Q1 win on the line tonight, boys.
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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03-10-21 08:37 PM - Post#321739
In response to Steve
I don't care if Colgate wins by 30 today -- it was still a perplexing line. If they play this game 100 times, Colgate isn't outscoring Bucknell by 15 on average.
Steve, I care!
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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Steve
Freshman
Posts: 69
Age: 65
Reg: 08-12-09
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03-10-21 08:38 PM - Post#321740
In response to Bison89
Woodward back for Gate.
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nh2032
Sophomore
Posts: 185
Reg: 02-28-06
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03-10-21 08:57 PM - Post#321743
In response to Steve
Doesn't look like Deuce is playing.
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jkrun80
Postdoc
Posts: 3305
Age: 65
Reg: 05-07-12
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03-10-21 09:03 PM - Post#321744
In response to nh2032
I love Meeks, but he needs to get in the paint and stop shooting 3s. The defense is atrocious again tonight.
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The Psycho of Sojka
Sophomore
Posts: 107
Reg: 11-15-15
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Colgate Game - PLT
03-10-21 09:25 PM - Post#321747
In response to nh2032
I’m curious to know why he is out. Don’t see anything saying why anywhere. 137 do you know?
Edited by The Psycho of Sojka on 03-10-21 09:25 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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nh2032
Sophomore
Posts: 185
Reg: 02-28-06
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03-10-21 09:31 PM - Post#321749
In response to The Psycho of Sojka
Banked in Colgate 3 was a fitting way to end that half. Congrats Colgate Steve - you successfully pulled off the reverse jinx with all the "line is too high" talk.
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Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts: 548
Loc: Bloomsburg
Reg: 11-12-15
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03-10-21 09:32 PM - Post#321750
In response to The Psycho of Sojka
Doubling the ball on the ball screens would be working great if the center wasn’t wide open every time for easy baskets.
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HuskyColonial
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Age: 50
Reg: 02-17-12
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03-10-21 09:35 PM - Post#321751
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
When you don’t coach or play defense bad things happen when you can’t out score them. Sad.
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Bison54
PhD Student
Posts: 1800
Reg: 11-18-09
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03-10-21 10:01 PM - Post#321753
In response to HuskyColonial
Nothing is insurmountable??????????? ??????
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Bison54
PhD Student
Posts: 1800
Reg: 11-18-09
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03-10-21 10:04 PM - Post#321755
In response to Bison54
The dam has breached and the water is flowing out at an increasing pace
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MrPhillie
Postdoc
Posts: 2757
Loc: NE PA
Reg: 07-14-08
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03-10-21 10:22 PM - Post#321757
In response to Bison54
A forgettable year. Too bad for Meeks, he deserved better.
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Bucknellbisonfan21
Masters Student
Posts: 548
Loc: Bloomsburg
Reg: 11-12-15
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03-10-21 10:24 PM - Post#321758
In response to MrPhillie
Duece got in the game in the last couple minutes for those who may have turned the game off.
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HuskyColonial
PhD Student
Posts: 1976
Age: 50
Reg: 02-17-12
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03-10-21 10:58 PM - Post#321761
In response to Bucknellbisonfan21
With respect, who cares?
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bison63
Postdoc
Posts: 3857
Reg: 01-23-06
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03-10-21 11:01 PM - Post#321763
In response to HuskyColonial
Ugh
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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Colgate Game - PLT
03-11-21 12:03 AM - Post#321767
In response to bison63
BU gave up 1.40 points per possession tonight. My quick research indicates that is the second worst defensive performance in the last 20 years, being exceeded only by the November 2016 loss to Wake, where they gave up 1.42 points per possession. (The 2010 loss at BC was equally bad, with the Bison giving up 84 points in 60 possessions, i.e. 1.40 ppp.)
It is unlikely that any Bison team coached by Flannery ever gave up this many points per possession, although the 98 scored by Holy Cross in 1993 might be in the running.
One other thing. Bison were outrebounded 50-28. I am too lazy to look it up - but it may be years since BU was outrebounded by that margin. Possibly never in a PL game.
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Bison137
Professor
Posts: 16147
Reg: 01-23-06
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03-11-21 12:04 AM - Post#321768
In response to HuskyColonial
With respect, who cares?
I think it's relevant to whether he was out due to injury.
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Bison89
Professor
Posts: 5370
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-14-07
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03-12-21 09:42 AM - Post#321843
In response to Bison137
What do Bucknell and Duke have in common?
| New season, new team, new dream . . . |
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