SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-10-21 04:13 PM - Post#326598
Seven of the eight schools have put out rosters (Princeton, as usual, has not).
Brown, Penn, and Yale appear to have players who left school last year and therefore have moved back a year by class designation.
Brown — Friday
Penn — Dingle, Martz
Yale — Swain, Gabbidon, Alausa, Kelly, cotton, Lanford, Feinberg, Mahoney
Biggest player missing from a roster is Evan Nelson (Harvard). Only other guy who I think has disappeared from a roster is Brown’s Davis Franks.
And of course the returning grad students may be most important. Choh, Barry, and Rai are all back and should be impact players. Bolster for Columbia is back as well.
Curious if I’ve got anything wrong here, or if anyone has noticed anything I’ve missed.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2699
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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09-11-21 09:33 AM - Post#326607
In response to SomeGuy
Bart Tovik's 2021-22 projections either doesn't favor the Ivy league or can't process a year off, reduced returning minutes, and the equivalent of two freshman classes:
155 Yale
183 Penn
213 Princeton
219 Harvard
309 Brown
328 Dartmouth
345 Cornell
352 Columbia
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Ever True
Junior
Posts: 255
Age: 28
Reg: 02-02-15
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09-11-21 01:25 PM - Post#326609
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Best to take Torvik with a grain of salt as far as the Ivies are concerned - he doesn't have Choh on the Brown roster and has Patrick Harding on Penn instead of Columbia. I'm sure there are some other absences that I'm not catching either.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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09-11-21 01:28 PM - Post#326610
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Well, this has been my point about these models generally — the league is returning very few minutes compared to anyone else. So I’m not surprised that the numbers are much lower overall.
However, my guess is that he is not picking up Choh, Barry, and Rai in these numbers. Both Brown and Dartmouth look low to me. Based on returning minutes, etc., this seems like a really good opportunity for one or both to sneak into the top 4. At the very least, they should be far ahead of Columbia and Cornell. And I’m curious how Penn gets so high. Matches our hopes/expectations as Penn fans, but doesn’t really fit statistically. If Harvard was better in 2019, returns similar minutes/stats, and brings in more highly touted recruits, why do they drop behind Penn in the model? Not saying it can’t/won’t play out that way — I just don’t really get how he ends up with that projection.
Overall, of course, the question is whether the presumptions about return minutes hold when an entire conference sits out a season. My guess is they will OOC, and things will be rough initially (and national ranks will be low, as suggested in Tovar’s numbers). But once we get to conference play, everyone is on equal footing, and talent will have a better chance of winning out.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4005
Reg: 11-23-04
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09-11-21 09:12 PM - Post#326614
In response to SomeGuy
If Tovik has Brown that high without Choh, I am very happy.
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