OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 04:46 PM - Post#351058
In response to palestra38
Agree. Upsets in conference tourneys are the rule rather than the exception.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21284
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 04:53 PM - Post#351059
In response to OldBig5
We only have 4 years worth of Ivy Madness data, so very few data points to make a case either way.
A 3 seed has only won a grand total of one game and bupkus for the 4 seed. And if the home team is in the championship game, it has won (either as a 1 or a 2).
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 05:31 PM - Post#351061
In response to penn nation
So we've lowered the bar to slinking into the tourney as a 4 seed (maybe the 3 if the chips fall well) and then getting lucky?
We have Jordan Freaking Dingle on the team and that's the best we can hope for?
What happens when Dingle graduates?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32883
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 05:47 PM - Post#351064
In response to TheLine
So when did you transmogrify into Jeff?
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 07:06 PM - Post#351065
In response to palestra38
"The Line" asked?
<<So we've lowered the bar to slinking into the tourney as a 4 seed (maybe the 3 if the chips fall well) and then getting lucky?>>
It is perfectly proper to point out that some fans at Penn have defined success downward. Success now includes qualifying for the Ivy Tournament.
In 2019, Penn finished in a three way tie for 4th, 5th and 6th place with Brown and Cornell at 7-7. Penn qualified for the Ivy Tournament by tiebreaker.
In 2020, Penn finished in a two way tie for 4th and 5th place with Brown at 8-6. Penn qualified for the Ivy Tournament by tiebreaker, before the tournament was cancelled because of Covid.
In 2022, Penn finished third at 9-5, losing both games to #1 seed Princeton and losing two out of three games (counting the tournament game) to #2 seed Yale. Was that a successful season?
This year, there is an entirely plausible scenario in which Penn ties with either Brown or Cornell or both and loses out on an Ivy Tournament bid based on the tiebreaker. Would 2019 or 2020 be a more "successful" season because of the vagaries of a tiebreaker rule?
Penn has appeared in one NCAA tournament since 2007. Penn has played in one other post-season tournament, when Steve Bilsky paid the fee to host two home games in the CBI for Zack Rosen's team in 2012.
Is it unreasonable to label this period as 15 years of mediocrity (or 13 of 15 years of mediocrity)?
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32883
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 08:41 PM - Post#351070
In response to Stuart Suss
It's perfectly reasonable IF YOU ARE A PENN FAN, to have this discussion after the season when we have an opportunity to debate whether this is good enough.
But IF YOU ARE A PENN FAN with 5 games to go, Penn has won 4 in a row and has a chance to finish the season strong and compete in the Ivy Tournament and maybe even the NCAA Tournament, this is not the time for the downer discussion.
Of course, it's your right to complain--I've done plenty of it here, but I have to question how much you care if now is the time to complain about the coach and the state of the program. I go to every home game--am going up to Harvard this week and want to believe we're not going to lose again this season.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-06-23 09:21 PM - Post#351074
In response to palestra38
Yes — I object to the suggestion that any of us are saying 4th place is ok, or the goal. We could get left out this year, sure. We also are a game out of 2nd place with a home game left against the team in front of us. Talking about how we clinch a playoff berth doesn’t mean we don’t want anything more. It’s how we talk in all sports that have a playoff system.
Also, pushing back on one of Stu’s other points some, I think we’ve been better than our league finishes over the course of Steve’s tenure. We often are far higher in kenpom than the teams we have tied with, and the ratings often say we “should” have won one or two more league games. That could be the result of real things like league matchups, or getting out coached. But it also could be the result of a few bad bounces. In other words, if we just did this with a computer, we’d have lots of seasons where the third best team in the league that should have gone 9-5 actually goes 7-7. Last year is the first time it went the other way for us — we were 6th in kenpom, yet managed to go 9-5 and finish 3rd. As fans we make a lot of that, but it may just be a few bounces. This is a long way of saying I don’t necessarily buy the narrative that we’ve just been a 4th place type of team under Steve. Only two teams have been in the Ivy tournament every year. Penn and Yale.
That’s a limited defense of the Donahue tenure. Overall, I agree about the post Dunphy period. Mediocre is an apt description, and for the Allen and Miller years might even be generous.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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02-06-23 09:26 PM - Post#351077
In response to palestra38
Those 4 wins were against Hartford, the 7th and 8th place teams in the league, and a Cornell team that took one on the chin the night before and played really bad defensively against us.
it will take better play than we saw this weekend for Penn to win the next 4. And that's what it will take to make the tournament comfortably.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32883
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 09:42 PM - Post#351080
In response to TheLine
I hear you, but frankly, we have outplayed our opposition for most of our games with the exception of Princeton (even there, we were tied halfway through the second half). We had injury problems that still exist but we're dealing with it (watch Clark get scoped right after the season). We have a 9 man rotation that actually looks pretty good and, oh yes, we have the best player in the League.
If it turns out that we finish 4th and get knocked out in the first game, let the criticism fly. But we're in it until we're not, and I am not willing to concede right now.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 10:07 PM - Post#351082
In response to palestra38
The second half fades are a feature, not a bug. It's caused by relying heavy on a team core (Jordan, Max, and Clark until recently) that eventually wears out. And that's made worse by an over-reliance on one player.
The ray of hope is that Smith, Laz, and MLL have been contributing useful minutes recently and could be playing more.
Penn is not the only team in the league dealing with injuries. It happens. it's why it's important to recruit depth.
Edited by TheLine on 02-06-23 10:19 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 10:18 PM - Post#351083
In response to TheLine
Penn is also not the only team that relies on its main guys. Cornell has more depth and plays differently. I’m not sure anyone else is really all that different from us in this regard.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Why is anyone surprised?
02-06-23 10:26 PM - Post#351084
In response to SomeGuy
Yeah, 4 of the Princeton starters play 30+ a game.
So we're back mostly to what Stu said. Penn doesn't play good defense in general and goes through horrific slumps - quite often in the second half. Whether it's tiredness or the opponents adjusting or a combination, I don't know.
Edited by TheLine on 02-06-23 10:26 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-06-23 11:03 PM - Post#351087
In response to TheLine
I stand by what I posted.
And, now is the time to make that post. It is after a successful weekend, and not an emotional response to a painful loss.
It is time to define success and to put down that marker here and now.
1. Winning the Ivy League regular season is success.
2. Winning the Ivy Tournament and advancing to the NCAA tournament has been, since 2017, an alternative path to success offered to some teams.
3. Qualifying as an at-large team for the NCAA tournament is success. Unlike the women, the men have never been a two bid conference and that is not going to change this season.
Anything less is not success. To be precise, anything less should not be accepted as success at Penn. Perhaps elsewhere, but not at Penn.
Since Ivy League men's basketball is no longer a two team conference, success will not occur every year. But, it should occur with sufficient frequency. One successful season since 2007 is insufficient.
P38 is correct. Nobody should concede this season when it is far from over. A regular season title, however unlikely, remains mathematically possible. Qualifying for the Ivy Tournament then winning the Ivy Tournament remains possible.
But, I call upon everyone to define success now. If not my definition, what is your definition?
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1903
Reg: 11-29-04
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02-07-23 01:28 AM - Post#351088
In response to Stuart Suss
Graduating fine young students, developing them as athletes and people, teaching them to love their team, and helping them in self-discovery? 
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slane
Freshman
Posts: 72
Reg: 02-09-05
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02-07-23 02:17 AM - Post#351091
In response to Penndemonium
In the face of all this negativity it is worth pointing out that if Penn can beat Harvard again this weekend (which is certainly possible if not likely) and Dartmouth having come oh so close at Jadwyn can and probably playing with it’s season on the line) can close the deal vs Princeton on Saturday, Penn will not only control its destiny as far as making the Ivy Tournament but also as to finishing in at least a tie for 1st place. Just saying.
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slane
Freshman
Posts: 72
Reg: 02-09-05
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02-07-23 02:27 AM - Post#351093
In response to slane
The only safe bet this weekend is that Yale avenges it’s season opening loss to Columbia. That being the case, if we win we will be tied with the Brown-Cornell winner in for third and the Brown - Cornell loser will be sitting out of the money. If we lose, we will be in either a two way tie for 4th with the Brown - Cornell loser, or in a 3 way tie for 4th that will include Dartmouth. Everyone needs to chill out.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Why is anyone surprised?
02-07-23 08:44 AM - Post#351094
In response to Stuart Suss
Success to me is what Jones, Henderson, and Amakar (until recently) are doing.
My objective criteria:
- Appearances in the NCAA tourney about once every four years.
- Solid KenPom rank. If regularly in the KP top 100 is too aggressive, then top 120? Something like that.
- Top 2 finishes in the Ivy regular season about 50% of the time
- Making the Ivy tourney every year
Of course I'd expect players on the team to represent Penn well and coaches to help prepare them for life, but isn't that a given? No Ivy coach should keep their job if they aren't doing that.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 437
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-07-23 09:07 AM - Post#351095
In response to TheLine
"Of course I'd expect players on the team to represent Penn well and coaches to help prepare them for life, but isn't that a given? No Ivy coach should keep their job if they aren't doing that."
I don't mean to rain on your parade, but this is an amazingly naive take. Coaches that care about their players anywhere except on the court is the exception rather than the standard.
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TheLine
Professor
Posts: 5597
Age: 60
Reg: 07-07-09
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Why is anyone surprised?
02-07-23 09:30 AM - Post#351096
In response to CM
Are you saying that Tommy Amakar, Joe Jones and Mitch Henderson don't care about their players off the court, and Steve Donahue has some special sauce that they don't?
Since Tommy Amakar is criticized regularly on this forum, I googled him. The first page not related to his basketball record or Duke was this one:
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/03 /bre...
Does this sound like a coach who doesn't care about his players?
Edited by TheLine on 02-07-23 09:41 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 437
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Why is anyone surprised?
02-07-23 09:40 AM - Post#351097
In response to TheLine
I did not say no coaches care about their players. It does happen. But plenty do not.
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