bison63
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02-16-23 10:52 AM - Post#351715
With their 12 point win @ American last night, the zBucknell women’s’ win streak stretched to 6, raising the question, “how far can these ladies go?”
Well, mathmatically, they can still finish 2nd, but it is a very long shot. Let’s assume the Bison win out from here ( no easy task considering the next game is vs 14-0 Boston U). If that isn’t enough, Lehigh another of the teams above the Bison in the standings follows Boston into Sojka. After that on the road at Lafayette and back home for the finale vs American.
Ok, so by winning out Bucknell finishes 12/6, meaning 2nd place HC (10-4) would need to go 2-2 for us to get a 2nd place tie. Oops, wouldn’t you know, HC holds the tie breaker by virtue of beating us twice. Btw, like Bucknell, HC has 3 of their last 4 games at home. So, for the Bison to sneak into 2nd, HC needs to drop 3 of 4 down the stretch. It could happen, but don’t hold your breath. First up for the Saders is Colgate, no easy win, but a definite should win for HC. Then they are home to Loyola, which they absolutely should win ( but you could have said the same thing about AU who stole an overtime win at Hart last Saturday).
Next HC is at Army, which is important for the Bison, since Army is one of the teams we are chasing. Thus an Army win over HC is good news/bad news. If Army beats HC, the Army/ Lehigh final season game become crucial. Let’s assume that Army wins at Lafayette, and then loses at Boston . That makes the Cadets 10-6 when HC visits Crystal. Let’s assume an Army win over HC, since that is a prerequisite for us to have any chance to finish ahead of the Saders. So if Army then defeats Lehigh, they are now 12-6 tied, hypothetically with Bucknell. I leave it to 137 to figure the tie breaker here . Better, imo for Lehigh to win @ Army because LU who is now 9-5 and one game ahead of us, would finish 11-7 if they go 2-2 in their last 4. That assumes a home win next time out vs American, followed by road losses to both BUs, and finally a win at Army. That results in Army and Lehigh finishing 11-7 behind the Bison at 12-6( if we win out).
Ok, finally as described above Bucknell winning out is 12-6, Lehigh and Army are 11-7, assuming Army beats HC and loses to Lehigh. HC is 12-6 same as the Bison by way of losing 2 of their last 4 games ( to Army and Boston). HC has the tie break for 2nd.How does Bucknell finish 2nd? IF Colgate wins at HC dropping the Crusaders to 11-7, Bucknell finishes 2nd. Should CU beat HC, they have an excellent chance of winning out since their last 3,are home vs LC and Navy, and on the road at Loyola. If CU does win out they finish at 10-8.
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Bison137
Professor
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02-16-23 02:51 PM - Post#351730
In response to bison63
a killer for the Bison chances of a top four finish was Army coming from behind yesterday afternoon to beat Colgate. That on top of Army beating Navy Saturday on a buzzer beater. Army, along with HC and Lehigh, all own the tiebreaker over the Bison.
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jkrun80
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02-17-23 11:29 AM - Post#351768
In response to Bison137
The most likely scenario is we go 3-1 and finish 4th. Either Army or Lehigh would need to go 1-3, which ever team loses their head-to-head game. That assumes all three teams lose to Boston. Interestingly, Boston's last five games are against the 2nd-5th place teams.
2/15 HC (W 66-59)
12/18 @ Bucknell
12/22 Army
12/25 @ Lehigh
3/1 @ HC
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jkrun80
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02-18-23 05:28 PM - Post#351913
In response to jkrun80
Women put up a good fight against Boston for 3 quarters. Too many missed shots and turnovers did them in in the 4th. Boston is the real deal. They've got great inside players and outside players. Sydney Johnson is the best player I've seen in the PL this year. Another big one against Lehigh on Wednesday.
BTW Colgate upset Holy Cross today. We could end the day with a 3-way tie for 2nd if Lehigh beat AU.
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jkrun80
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Where the action is!
02-20-23 09:27 PM - Post#352236
In response to jkrun80
Here's an update on the playoff scenarios based on the final three games, as far as I can tell. If any one of the other three teams beats Boston, they are a virtual lock for 2nd and these go out the window.
Best Case - 3rd place
Bucknell 3-0 (Leh, Laf, AU)
Army 2-1 (L vs Bost, W vs HC, Leh)
Holy Cross 0-3 (Loy, Army, Bost)
Lehigh 0-3 (Buck, Bost, Army)
Assumes HC loses to 9h place Loyola. Unlikely, but HC has lost 3 in a row including to AU and Colgate at home. Lehigh likely beats Army in the final game.
Next Best Case - 4th place
Bucknell 3-0
Army or Lehigh 0-3
Holy Cross 1-2
Worst Case - 6th place
Bucknell loses to Lehigh (last 2 games are irrelevant at that point)
Colgate goes 3-0 (Laf, Navy, Loyola)
Most Frustrating Case 5th place
Bucknell 3-0
Army 1-2 (W vs HC)
Holy Cross 1-2 (W vs Loyola)
Lehigh 1-2 (W vs Army)
The four teams would be tied at 11-7, but we lose the tie breaker based on record vs the other three. This might be the most likely outcome unfortunately.
My best hope is for 4th, because I don't think HC loses to Loyola despite how badly they've looked lately.
BTW, Boston could become the first team, men or women, to go undefeated since the league expanded to 10 teams. Lehigh probably has the best chance to beat them, playing at home.
Edited by jkrun80 on 02-20-23 09:30 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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Bison137
Professor
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02-20-23 10:45 PM - Post#352239
In response to jkrun80
Your worst case might turn out to be the best case for the bison. If they end up with the sixth seed, they would be on the opposite side of the bracket from Boston U and couldn’t play them before the final. It doesn’t appear there is much difference between Holy Cross, Lehigh, and Army – but there is a huge difference between Boston and everyone else.
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jkrun80
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02-21-23 11:11 AM - Post#352259
In response to Bison137
I guess there is a silver lining to finishing 6th in terms of a chance of making the final. But if we can't beat Lehigh at home, what are the odds of winning a playoff game on the road? Boston is very good, but not unbeatable. If Shaffer had gone 5-11 instead of 1-11 and King makes one or two more shots, Saturday's game would have been entirely different. They're the team to beat whether you play them in the semis or the final.
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bison63
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02-22-23 06:29 PM - Post#352325
In response to jkrun80
I hear you JK, but Shaffer was 1/11 for a reason, that being the Boston bigs. We were just beaten by a better team. But Coach is no fool, and if anyone can come up with a way for us to win, it is him.
KFrankly, imo, if we can ‘t beat Lehigh at home, what’s the point anyway? I think we will beat them, and think about a final game between our ladies and a 20-0 in the PL Boston team needing to beat a pretty good team for the third time in the season. Who is the pressure on?
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Bison137
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02-22-23 06:59 PM - Post#352328
In response to bison63
Lehigh is a tough match up defensively for the bison. They don’t play a traditional post player, which means Shaffer must chase a player around the perimeter – which obviously is not her forte.
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jkrun80
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02-22-23 07:46 PM - Post#352332
In response to Bison137
Terrible 2nd foul call on Shaffer. I don't understand switching to the 2-3 zone when Lehigh can play 5 out. They're just inviting open 3's. Let's hope the defense tightens up in the 2nd half.
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jkrun80
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02-22-23 08:53 PM - Post#352337
In response to jkrun80
After a phenomenal 3rd Q, the defense totally collapsed in the 4th. The officiating was horrendous, but that's not the reason we lost. Collins is a great player, but Johnson had the hot hand and hardly touched the ball in the 4th.
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Bison137
Professor
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02-22-23 09:00 PM - Post#352339
In response to jkrun80
Yes, terrible foul call on Shaffer that put her out for 8:30. Replay made it clear that it was a charge. The officiating in the women's game, unfortunately, ranges from poor to incompetent.
Interesting to see a zone. Woodruff doesn't like zones and almost never uses one.
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jkrun80
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Age: 65
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02-25-23 09:09 PM - Post#352550
In response to Bison137
The worst case got a hell of a lot worse today. If the coaches can't figure this out before Wednesday, we're going to be looking at 7th place and a 1st round game.
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