Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
|
03-08-23 12:25 AM - Post#353424
Some upsets in conference tourneys (such as Gonzaga) has pushed some teams to the other side of the bubble.
Charlie Creme's texts indicate that in the next version of his bracket, Princeton will be the last team in. Clearly, the safest path through for the Tigers is to win the tournament and let Columbia sweat it out.
I'd expect a new bracket by the end of the evening (Tuesday).
|
Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
|
03-08-23 12:29 AM - Post#353425
In response to Tiger84
https://twitter.com/CharlieCreme/status/1 633285884...
|
Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
|
#2BidIvy hanging by a thread
03-08-23 12:41 AM - Post#353426
In response to Tiger84
And here's the post:
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/ id/30423...
Still has the Tigers as a play-in 11 seed.
He's moved Columbia up to a 10 seed if they win the ILT, with a potential 2nd round matchup vs Caitlin Clark and Iowa.
Other seeds of interest:
Maryland a 2-seed, but probably the 5th team on the S-curve since he has them drawing Virginia Tech rather than South Carolina, Indiana or Stanford.
North Carolina a 4-seed in South Carolina's bracket
Villanova and Texas are also 4 seeds. UConn a 2 in Indiana's bracket.
Edited by Tiger84 on 03-08-23 12:42 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21210
Reg: 12-02-04
|
Re: #2BidIvy hanging by a thread
03-08-23 12:54 AM - Post#353428
In response to Tiger84
Some upsets in conference tourneys (such as Gonzaga) has pushed some teams to the other side of the bubble.
.
I was about to say that I just saw Gonzaga crush St. Mary's but then I realized these weren't the bids you had in mind.
|
JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-08-23 02:13 AM - Post#353429
In response to penn nation
My best guess is we will not see 2 bids in any scenario other than a Columbia win over Princeton in the finals after both teams have blowouts in the semis … and that will still rely on the committee considering the Tigers’ seniors performances over the past three tournaments.
In NET Ranking Princeton is currently #40 & Columbia is #45.
32 Conference bids – 68 teams.
In the top 45 teams there are 12 conferences represented … so if the top 45 made it in – there would be 20 lower seeds from conference winners … and then only three open spots … so #48 ranked NET Raking should make it in. Today Columbia should be in the last 4 in.
Any least one of Columbia & Princeton will see their ranking fall. #81 Portland championship upset over #41 Gonzaga will be interesting to note how far the Zags fall.
In spots 49 – 58 are seven Power 5 schools … and we know the Power 5 bias
If either the Lions or Tigers lose on Friday, very likely the Lions fall outside the top 48 and the Tigers could be at best in the last 4 in.
A win Friday can still be a loss for an NCAA dance ticket: Even if both the Lions and Tigers win on Friday, for the at large NCAA goal, they need to win by the max scoring margin (10 points?), as both teams recently found out, close wins against lower ranked teams can drop them by 5 or mores spots.
I believe the moral for the Conference is that any school that is hoping for a second / multiple bid is that they need an NET Ranking lower than 40 – else you will ultimately be at the subjective whim of the NCAA tournament committee. How to achieve this is a nice summer debate.
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3058
Reg: 10-20-14
|
#2BidIvy hanging by a thread
03-08-23 10:39 AM - Post#353456
In response to JDP
I think JDP is correct.
Columbia really put itself in a bind with their OT win against lower rated Cornell. At this point, they will need to have a comfortable win against Harvard and either win the tournament or have an incredibly close loss to Princeton to make it to the NCAAs. Depending on other conference tournaments, it is possible that the close loss in the finals may not be enough.
I think Princeton has a little more wiggle room than Columbia, based on their higher NET and national profile. Fortunately for them, they have the easier semifinal and get to play the tournament at home.
Edited by rbg on 03-08-23 10:40 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
|
JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-08-23 03:39 PM - Post#353481
In response to rbg
Thank you for the kind words rbg
Any idea if for NET purposes the ILT is viewed as a neutral court?
Any idea if the NCAA tournament committee views a team playing on their home court during a tournament, especially at the mid-major tier, as a neutral court game? Or would the expectation that the home team has an advantage and should win by the home court advantage?
|
rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3058
Reg: 10-20-14
|
03-08-23 06:37 PM - Post#353493
In response to JDP
Those are interesting questions, JDP.
Last year, Columbia and Princeton brought a lot of fans to Harvard. I'm guessing both teams will be well represented this weekend, so it could be considered a neutral site.
Charlie Creme continues to have Columbia as the automatic qualifier, even though they lost the #1 seed for the Ivy Tournament, have the lower NET and he predicted that Princeton wins the Ivy Tournament. He also moved them up to #10 last night, while Princeton is still #11. After some upsets last night, he has Princeton as the last at-large team in the field.
Princeton seems to be the more consistent team of the two and Columbia has not been at their best a few times over the last few weeks (home against Princeton and Cornell). That makes me concerned about getting 2 bids.
|
PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 557
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
|
Re: #2BidIvy hanging by a thread
03-09-23 02:34 AM - Post#353541
In response to rbg
Columbia really put itself in a bind with their OT win against lower rated Cornell.
100%… a comfortable win over Cornell and a close loss at Princeton probably gets them in, but now… not so sure. Both teams have to treat it like a winner-take-all. But that makes it more fun for us fans!
|
Tiger84
Senior
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Reg: 03-06-17
|
03-11-23 01:24 AM - Post#353681
In response to PeteD
They should have another good run in the WNIT.
|
JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-11-23 12:01 PM - Post#353695
In response to Tiger84
In the classic sense of “you are telling me there is a chance”. I don’t think Columbia is out of an at-large bid. Their NET only fell to 46 from 44 and there are 17 conferences represented un the top 48. So a NET ranking on the low 50s could be enough for the NCAAs – are there 5-7 lower NET teams that go in before Columbia? Would need a lot of odds to wager that the Lions are in. But not sure anyone would say the tournament committee will not consider Columbia.
That said, if Harvard does win this evening, then a three-bid league is a bit to far, even for me, today … but I do think Ivy Women’s basketball is on a good enough trajectory with five quality teams, that one day … perhaps even before the men get a second bid.
The more interesting question is if the Crimson do win, which Ivy gets the second bid. The Tigers have a NET of 39, but would the NCAA committees give the nod the Columbia which is 2-1 vs Harvard while Princeton would be 1-2? I do feel the Tigers are playing better basketball than the Lions, but these are the worries when you leave decisions in the hands of committees.
Columbia, Harvard and Princeton are locks for the NIT if they want the experience. Penn with a NET of is still in the mix at NET 118. Between NCAA & NIT there are 132 spots. Each conference gets one guaranteed spot. Any at large teams needs at least a 500 record. A NET in the 130s likely gets one into the NIT
|
JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
|
03-12-23 10:39 PM - Post#354001
In response to JDP
4 Power 5 schools in as 11 Play in Seed over #47 NET ranking Columbia 23-5
Play in - last 4 in
#39 Mississippi State 20-10
#41 Illinois 22-9
#49 Purdue 19-10
#55 St. John's 22-8
Other lower NET Teams that made it in
9 Seeded #50 Miami 19-12 - which Columbia beat at Miami
10 Seeded #60 WVU 19-11
Mental note: Looks like one needs to be NET 36 or better to be safe to make it in as an at large. Who else in the 30s - 40s NET did not make it:
#37 Kansas at 19-11
#43 Nebraska at 16-14
#45 Michigan Stae at 16-14
#48 Arkansas at 21-12
|
dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
|
03-12-23 11:26 PM - Post#354007
In response to JDP
In other words, the tournament produced the worst result possible--Harvard did well enough to knock Columbia out and do some damage to Princeton's seed, but not enough to get in themselves.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
|
