iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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10-06-23 02:36 PM - Post#358292
Caesars has a betting line for Ivy League regular season champion. I thought the implied ranking was interesting:
YALE +160
PRIN +260
PENN +350
BRWN +800
COR +1200
DART +1600
HARV +1600
COL +2500
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32881
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-06-23 02:45 PM - Post#358295
In response to iogyhufi
Can I take the under for Penn?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21280
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-06-23 03:27 PM - Post#358297
In response to iogyhufi
It would be hysterical if Penn somehow finished 3rd and folks were like, "Coach of the Year Honors for SD? Nah--this was expected".
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digamma
Masters Student
Posts: 468
Loc: Minneapolis
Reg: 11-27-11
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-09-23 08:25 AM - Post#358317
In response to palestra38
Can I take the under for Penn?
Hey someone has to finish third! We're all gonna suck!
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Ever True
Junior
Posts: 255
Age: 28
Reg: 02-02-15
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-09-23 12:26 PM - Post#358318
In response to digamma
Two more rankings to debate, from analytics gurus Erik Haslam and Bart Torvik, respectively.
Haslam
76. Yale
107. Princeton
118. Cornell
160. Penn
192. Brown
207. Harvard
229. Dartmouth
281. Columbia
Torvik
80. Yale
137. Princeton
139. Brown
148. Cornell
182. Penn
214. Dartmouth
252. Harvard
271. Columbia
FWIW, I side with Haslam on the gap between Yale and Princeton, but prefer Torvik's vision of the top four  Also worth noting that Torvik still has Martz on the Penn roster - if you subtract his projected contributions via the RosterCast function on Torvik's website, the Quakers drop to 244.
Edited by Ever True on 10-09-23 12:35 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-09-23 03:16 PM - Post#358319
In response to Ever True
The Yale-Princeton gap is an interesting question. (For what it's worth, Torvik and Haslam both think that Yale is a strong favorite at home, a smaller favorite on a neutral site, and a toss-up at Jadwin.)
We're still in the assuming-a-can-opener stage of the offseason, but I just can't see Princeton as being particularly close to Yale right now. Princeton lost a lot, and what they lost is hard to replace. Yale didn't lost nearly as much, and there's a very good reason to think that the biggest concern will be addressed easily (the no-doubt lower quality of competition in the FIBA U19 Euros notwithstanding).
Princeton could absolutely contend for the league title this year, but there are a lot of questions they need to answer first.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-09-23 08:05 PM - Post#358331
In response to iogyhufi
Yes, Yale seems like a prohibitive favorite, particularly with Dingle and Martz out of the picture. Princeton is interesting. They lost a lot, but they won’t be relying on total unknowns to fill openings in the way they were last year. So while they lose an irreplaceable piece in Tosan, they have replacements for the seniors who at least got time last year (particularly if they play small).
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 440
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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10-09-23 09:09 PM - Post#358332
In response to SomeGuy
Yale returns the most talent.
Princeton lost the league's best player,
but they have some exciting freshmen.
It should be a fun year.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4919
Reg: 02-04-06
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10-10-23 06:17 AM - Post#358335
In response to LocalTiger
Princeton has a hole at center, Yale is loaded, so the Eli should be favored until and unless the Tigers figure out how to compete near the rim.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 801
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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10-10-23 09:34 AM - Post#358336
In response to SRP
yale has 2-3 solutions at the rim. the question is when and which one asserts himself.
barring injury my guess is all 3 will by march.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 440
Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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10-11-23 08:33 PM - Post#358356
In response to james
who are the 3 "solutions?"
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 801
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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10-12-23 07:47 PM - Post#358379
In response to LocalTiger
Wolf aletan and basa ama-all Looong
Not counting Townsend molloy etc who are bruisers but undersized but that wouldn't matter much on d in the ivy
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-13-23 12:34 AM - Post#358382
In response to james
Ken Pomeroy conducted an interesting experiment to try and crowdsource some rankings. (He called it the H.U.M.A.N poll.) The results for the Ivy are...interesting, let's say.
99) Yale
125) Princeton
157) Harvard
175) Penn
181) Cornell
263) Brown
265) Dartmouth
326) Columbia
https://kenpom.com/human_poll.php
Edited by iogyhufi on 10-13-23 12:35 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-14-23 02:06 PM - Post#358420
In response to iogyhufi
"If we are going to criticize the humans, they seem have a brand-name bias. In the absence of doing a few minutes of research, voters seemed to rely on a team’s reputation to guide them."
https://kenpom.substack.com/p/human-poll-results
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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10-14-23 02:47 PM - Post#358421
In response to whitakk
I am struggling to see how people are still slotting Penn in at #4 in the Ivies. I think there are far more questions than answers on the roster at this point, and having lost two of the top three scoring leaders is foremost among them.
It will be interesting to see who steps up and contributes at both ends of the floor. I am also hoping we can get to the point where the offense is more egalitarian and less predictable. There may be no other way to go.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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10-14-23 03:01 PM - Post#358422
In response to weinhauers_ghost
The stars are aligned for Yale to have an epic year, but I think Brown has the best chance of an Ivy Madness upset. Their "big 3" of Lily, Owusu-Anane and Anya could be as good as anyone else's.
Anya was neck-and-neck with Pierce for ROY until he got injured. Even so, Brown went 7-7.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4006
Reg: 11-23-04
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-14-23 03:35 PM - Post#358423
In response to gokinsmen
Brown will be better than most on these boards believe, This is the deepest roster in my memory, although that may not saying that much these days.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
10-14-23 07:10 PM - Post#358427
In response to Old Bear
Yale could be scary good this season. Since my brother's a Yalie, they're my #2 Ivy rooting interest.
Edited by weinhauers_ghost on 10-14-23 07:11 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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10-14-23 10:48 PM - Post#358431
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Penn was a clear top three with Dingle. It’s not at all clear now, but it isn’t necessarily clear to me who should now be ahead of them. At some point, I suppose I need to start to believe in Cornell, but talent-wise I’m just not sure of them. They seem like a gimmick running at you in waves without actually being particularly athletic. At some point, I think the league figures that out. And Brown just can’t seem to break through. Maybe they finally do, but I have trouble anointing them top four, either.
The other three look behind Penn to me. So when I look at the league, Yale seems like the obvious number one, Princeton seems like a likely 2, and then Penn, Brown, and Cornell are in the mix for 3-5.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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10-15-23 07:35 PM - Post#358443
In response to SomeGuy
KenPom's newest rankings are up.
71) Yale
123) Princeton
131) Cornell
199) Brown
215) Penn
227) Harvard
264) Columbia
267) Dartmouth
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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10-17-23 11:29 AM - Post#358471
In response to iogyhufi
The Men's Basketball Media Day is today, and we have the media poll.
1. Yale – 124 (14)
2. Princeton – 110 (2)
3. Cornell – 80
4. Brown – 77
5. Penn – 68
6. Harvard – 66
7. Dartmouth – 28
8. Columbia – 23
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Greenhorn
Senior
Posts: 322
Reg: 11-24-04
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10-17-23 06:48 PM - Post#358475
In response to iogyhufi
When was the last time Dartmouth or Columbia was even relevant in this poll?
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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10-17-23 08:55 PM - Post#358477
In response to Greenhorn
When was the last time Dartmouth or Columbia was even relevant in this poll?
Columbia was a close #2 (and joint-most first-place votes) in 2015-16, the CIT championship year
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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10-17-23 08:56 PM - Post#358478
In response to iogyhufi
The Men's Basketball Media Day is today, and we have the media poll.
1. Yale – 124 (14)
2. Princeton – 110 (2)
3. Cornell – 80
4. Brown – 77
5. Penn – 68
6. Harvard – 66
7. Dartmouth – 28
8. Columbia – 23
124 for Yale means either the other two voters each picked them #3, or one picked them #4
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3066
Reg: 10-20-14
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10-18-23 01:34 PM - Post#358489
In response to whitakk
Media Day is Thursday from 11 am - 1:45 pm and will be streamed live on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCT-llrK24M
https://ivyleague.com/news/2023/10/18/mens- basketb...
Media Day Participants
Brown
Kino Lilly Jr. (Jr., G – Glenn Dale, Md.)
Nana Owusu-Anane (Jr., F – Burlington, Ontario)
Columbia
Zavian McLean (Sr., G – Spring Lake, N.C.)
Josh Odunowo (Sr., F – Laurel, Md.)
Cornell
Sean Hansen (Sr., F – Ramsey, N.J.)
Nazir Williams (Jr., G – Nyack, N.Y.)
Dartmouth
Robert McRae III (Sr., G – Inglewood, Calif.)
Romeo Myrthil (Jr., G – Solna, Sweden)
Harvard
Chandler Piggé (So., G – Houston, Texas)
Denham Wojcik (Jr., G – Charleston, S.C.)
Penn
Clark Slajchert (Sr., G – Los Angeles, Calif.)
Nick Spinoso (Jr, F/C – Port Washington, N.Y.)
Princeton
Matt Allocco (Sr., G – Hilliard, Ohio)
Caden Pierce (So., F – Glen Ellyn, Ill.)
Yale
Matt Knowling (Sr., F – Ellington, Conn.)
August Mahoney (Sr., G – Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
Men's Basketball Media Day Schedule (Thursday, 10/19):
Welcome (11 - 11:05 a.m.)
Columbia (11:05 - 11:25 a.m.)
Princeton (11:25 - 11:45 a.m.)
Penn (11:45 a.m. - 12:05 p.m.)
Harvard (12:05 - 12:25 p.m.)
Dartmouth (12:25 - 12:45 p.m.)
Cornell (12:45 - 1:05 p.m.)
Yale (1:05 - 1:25 p.m.)
Brown (1:25 - 1:45 p.m.)
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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10-30-23 05:59 PM - Post#358667
In response to iogyhufi
I just followed up on the Vegas lines to see if they'd changed. It turns out they have - here's what MGM has today:
YALE +100
PRIN +360
COR +600
PENN +800
BRWN +800
DART +2000
HARV +2000
COL +3500
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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11-21-23 09:38 PM - Post#359550
In response to iogyhufi
Mister Pomeroy has a blog post on the surprising Ivy season so far:
https://kenpom.substack.com/p/the-ivy-is-on-fire
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Bryan
Junior
Posts: 234
Loc: Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-21-23 09:59 PM - Post#359551
In response to iogyhufi
Are the MGM betting odds for the regular season or to win the Ivy tournament? If regular season, then what happens if there is a tie between 2 or more teams?
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21280
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-22-23 12:04 AM - Post#359553
In response to iogyhufi
But for the Ivy, its unique circumstances have led to the impossible in college basketball: a conference lacking in tradition that has experienced substantial and seemingly permanent improvement.
Good God. Have they not heard of the Palestra? Penn and Princeton? And of course while mentioning Princeton success, past and present, they don't mention Penn in 1979.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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11-22-23 12:57 AM - Post#359554
In response to penn nation
I assumed he meant that the league as a whole was historically bad (which is true), not that the league had no good teams.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3619
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-22-23 03:25 PM - Post#359567
In response to iogyhufi
Yeah I took this to be very league specific.
Though reading about giving back some of the good will on the UMES loss still smarts.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1892
Reg: 11-21-04
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11-22-23 08:28 PM - Post#359593
In response to Mike Porter
Princeton up to #54 on KenPom after drubbing ODU on the road to go 5-0. Tigers received 20 votes for AP Top 25 this week.
Yale at 81 KenPom
Cornell 103
Harvard 125
Penn 180
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2144
Age: 64
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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11-22-23 11:19 PM - Post#359601
In response to penn nation
penn nation reflects my indignation here, as someone who was on campus during the '79 final four run and played on that year's JV team.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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11-23-23 10:43 PM - Post#359625
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you here! I am grateful not only for Ivy League basketball, but also for interesting people to talk about it with. Even when those people are Harvard fans 
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21280
Reg: 12-02-04
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11-23-23 11:53 PM - Post#359627
In response to TigerFan
Yeah, that 'Nova victory is looking better and better for the Quakers.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2818
Reg: 11-23-04
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11-24-23 11:40 PM - Post#359660
In response to iogyhufi
Does harvard have fans?????
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mbaprof
Senior
Posts: 346
Age: 67
Reg: 12-24-11
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01-01-24 09:20 AM - Post#361080
In response to Tiger69
What do we think now based upon ooc play?
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Ever True
Junior
Posts: 255
Age: 28
Reg: 02-02-15
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01-01-24 10:58 AM - Post#361083
In response to mbaprof
1. Princeton
2. Yale
3. Cornell
4. Penn
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Brown
8. Dartmouth
I like Penn a little more than Harvard, given the Crimson's injury problems, but will have to see if Slajchert's ankle is an issue or not. Based on OOC, wouldn't surprise me if anyone at spots 4-7 made Ivy Madness. In my heart of hearts, I believe Brown has enough talent, but have not played consistently enough for me to place them higher than 7.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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01-04-24 02:36 PM - Post#361240
In response to Ever True
Just for curiosity's sake, here's how each Ivy did in the non-con vs. the team sheet quadrants (using KenPom rankings):
Brown - 0-2 Q1, 0-0 Q2, 1-6 Q3, 2-3 Q4(!)
Columbia - 0-1 Q1, 0-0 Q2, 1-2 Q3, 5-1
Cornell - 0-1 Q1, 0-2 Q2, 3-0 Q3, 7-0 Q4
Dartmouth - 0-1 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 0-3 Q3, 2-4 Q4
Harvard - 0-0 Q1, 1-3 Q2, 2-1 Q3, 5-0 Q4
Penn - 1-3 Q1, 0-1 Q2, 1-1 Q3, 4-2 Q4
Princeton - 0-0 Q1, 3-1 Q2, 4-0 Q3, 3-0 Q4
Yale - 0-2 Q1, 1-2 Q2, 4-1 Q3, 2-1 Q4
The league's only Quad 1 win was Penn vs. Villanova.
Quad 2 wins: Harvard @ UMass, Princeton v. Rutgers/@ Hofstra/@ Duquesne, Yale @ Santa Clara
Oddly, despite all the hullabaloo about the quality of the league's non-con, this is kind of underwhelming.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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01-04-24 02:44 PM - Post#361243
In response to Ever True
1. Princeton
2. Yale
3. Cornell
4. Penn
5. Harvard
6. Columbia
7. Brown
8. Dartmouth
I like Penn a little more than Harvard, given the Crimson's injury problems, but will have to see if Slajchert's ankle is an issue or not. Based on OOC, wouldn't surprise me if anyone at spots 4-7 made Ivy Madness. In my heart of hearts, I believe Brown has enough talent, but have not played consistently enough for me to place them higher than 7.
I agree with your ranking, but I'd have Brown 6th. Columbia has shown more life than usual, but I'll take Brown's upside.
I feel better about Yale than I did a month ago, but I also can't shake the niggling feeling that Yale could totally drop one or two that they should win to start conference play and then beat Princeton in JLA by double figures. (Can't remember who I read who said that, but they're onto something.)
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2700
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-04-24 07:30 PM - Post#361254
In response to iogyhufi
Harvard without Mack & Ajogbor is a 7th or 8th place team. Without Wojcik as well it's only worse.
Fully healthy - which is really marginally healthy - they'll challenge for 4th.
If the season is a combination of those options, the Crimson may fall out of it early and Mack could disappear as Bryce Aiken did.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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01-20-24 09:26 PM - Post#361926
In response to iogyhufi
Looking more clear now that it's Brown, Penn, Harvard, Columbia for one spot in the Ivy tournament - all are winless against the top three and unbeaten (Penn's win) against Dartmouth.
Record within that group so far:
BRWN 1-0
COL 0-0
HAR 1-1
PENN 0-1
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2700
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-21-24 01:55 PM - Post#361955
In response to whitakk
There is a post about how 7-7 might be needed to earn the 4th men’s spot. I think this year is an exception. Any loss by Princeton Yale or Cornell to the remaining five teams will be considered a big upset. That saddles 6 losses on each of Brown, Harvard. Penn, Columbia and Dartmouth.
Incredible, but unless the 5 teams can upset the 3 better squads, there are already must-win contests. If a bottom five team does pull off an upset of Princeton, Yale or Cornell, that team is in great position for the tournament.
It appears that there is enough quality in those five teams to suggest that none of them will win out against the others, and probably none will go 7-1 against their brethren. The return of injured players will boost Penn, Columbia and Harvard, maybe Dartmouth as well.
So, I believe that 6-8 will be the record of the final squad to reach the tournament. That is why Harvard’s victory yesterday at Penn was crucial for the Crimson. Looking forward, Penn must win the rematch at Harvard and Harvard must win the second contest at Brown.
Assuming this is a bifurcated league, other observations:
- Although 0-3, 2 of Columbia’s losses were vs Princeton & Yale and now Columbia is healthier;
- Brown has lost its two home games vs Cornell and Yale;
- Harvard’s loss at home against Brown (by 2 after an abysmal first half) is painful;
- Penn’s loss at home against Harvard, (due to a poor first half and without Slachert) isn’t ideal.
- Columbia is good
- even though Dartmouth can be competitive, any loss to the Big Green will be problematic - and the Big Green will win some games.
Of the 5 teams fighting for 4th, Penn - with the return of Slachert - has the most potential in my mind. However, it sounds like Penn will have to play at each of Columbia, Brown and Yale without him. Losses in those 3 games, followed by a contest at Princeton, could make even 6-8 a reach for Penn. A loss at either Columbia or Brown makes things difficult as well as that would be a second loss within the trailing five.
Edited by HARVARDDADGRAD on 01-21-24 01:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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ToothlessTiger
Senior
Posts: 339
Age: 76
Reg: 03-28-15
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01-21-24 10:16 PM - Post#361986
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Rubio De La Rosa could be the difference. Tigers very fortunate he did not put himself on the floor for 13 minutes. Columbia will cause problems going forward. If 6-8 can do it Columbia has a shot.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6415
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-22-24 10:45 AM - Post#362002
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
For now, single games take on more importance maybe than they should. The home losses for Harvard and Penn really hurt. Harvard at least mitigated it with a big road win. So Brown seems best situated, and Penn worst. Obviously can change fast. Absent the win at Harvard, Brown looks like a 7th place team based on performance thus far. So a big question is whether the win at Harvard shows they figured something out, or it is just the result of a great first half.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-22-24 10:56 AM - Post#362003
In response to SomeGuy
Penn's situation right now reminded me of mrjames' #ZOMBIEQUAKERS from the 2016-17 season. We even have a scary-looking top-60 Princeton team.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2700
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-22-24 01:09 PM - Post#362006
In response to iogyhufi
Totally agree with the above, and to reinforce:
- Penn gets Slachert back and the second half of its schedule features 5 of 7 games at the Palestra.
- Columbia is very strong with De La Rosa (and won 8 of 9 at one OOC stretch)
- Brown has a key road victory (@Harvard) and played Cornell tough at home.
- Harvard is now 6-1 with both Mack and Ajogbor healthy, plays next 4 games at Lavietes
- Dartmouth will win game(s).
This is going to be a scrum for multiple teams that have no chance of winning the regular season title.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32881
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-22-24 02:26 PM - Post#362012
In response to HARVARDDADGRAD
Will Dartmouth win games? I'm not certain of that.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2700
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-22-24 02:46 PM - Post#362016
In response to palestra38
The C's and then the P's each have to 'weather' the traditional back to back trips to Hanover. That provides some hope.
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mrjames
Professor
Posts: 6062
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-25-24 03:05 PM - Post#362104
In response to iogyhufi
Penn's situation right now reminded me of mrjames' #ZOMBIEQUAKERS from the 2016-17 season. We even have a scary-looking top-60 Princeton team.
Those were the days!!!
Hope everyone here is doing great!
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4919
Reg: 02-04-06
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Re: Preseason Ivy Rankings
01-25-24 04:53 PM - Post#362106
In response to mrjames
Hope all is well with you, too!
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