UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-23-23 12:57 PM - Post#360838
With the emergence of Perkins and Brown as freshman contributors I decided to see, during the Donahue era to see how important frosh success is to the starting lineup going forward. Here's what I found.
These KP stats show percent minutes played by position The data starts in AJ's first year the first year that Steve's recruits played. The numbers represent freshman experience of the starters identified by KP of the last five games of each year.
C .696
PF .504
SF .399
SG .469
PG .528
To explain: Penn's centers over the last seven years played as freshman .696 of the time. And so forth down the lineup.
Even a Princeton grad can see that good players stand out early, regardless of the returning talent.
The only player in those years with a frosh share of less than .3 was Mat Howard at .1. And that was being coached by you-know-who.
Two conclusions regarding this team.
Having two frosh starters is a very good thing.
Expecting Thrower who earned .06 and Holland .11 in their first years to excel now is wishful thinking.
You may remember my observation after the Red & Blue game that Brown was playing regularly with Clark. Obviously Steve saw something right away. Sam probably would have started game one if he had been healthy.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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12-24-23 07:15 PM - Post#360874
In response to UPIA1968
Good data and probably good overall point. However, do you think Sam would have played as much last year with Dingle ahead of him? Would Spinoso have played his first year if he backed up AJ? Also depends how deep the rotation goes. I'm a big proponent this year of using a bigger rotation. Would help the defense I think.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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12-24-23 10:48 PM - Post#360878
In response to OldBig5
Surely Exceptions like AJ and Dingle bias the stats. However, this data is for five positions over seven years, involving 37 first year players. That is statistically significant data.
As to Brown, With Dingle and Martz, he would not be at .55. He would be getting time, however.
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OldBig5
Masters Student
Posts: 639
Age: 66
Reg: 02-18-18
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12-25-23 06:22 PM - Post#360891
In response to UPIA1968
Is it really a big enough universe? There are probably more like 25 guys who account for like 95% of the playing time over that period. Some guys in every class play hardly at all over there time.
Also it does not include the full time for any of the current underclassmen. Of course Perkins and Brown look like they will make your case even more and maybe a guy or two from the incoming class,
Anyways agree with your general conjecture. Just that some guys can contribute a bit even after no playing much initially. Team needs role players.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-25-23 06:32 PM - Post#360893
In response to OldBig5
If Slajchert can play like a senior and avoid turnovers and if Spinoso can hit foul shots, Penn should make the playoff. 3rd place and a first round playoff exit appears to be the ceiling for this year. Hope they surprise me.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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12-25-23 06:48 PM - Post#360894
In response to palestra38
The ceiling would be higher if Spinoso could also make layups in the paint. Perhaps he needs to learn some McHale turnarounds and setbacks, because he sure doesn't hit the 2 foot bunny hooks. It's too bad, because he makes some very good moves and takes it strong. Bunnies and free throws would turn Spinoso into a high efficiency force and it would make him dependable in the crunch.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32834
Reg: 11-21-04
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12-25-23 07:44 PM - Post#360895
In response to Penndemonium
On an earlier thread, I compared him, slightly unfavorably, to Fran Dougherty....a guy who started his career shooting FTs as poorly as Spinoso but became and acceptable FT shooter his last 2 years. He also hit more of those bunnies. Spinoso has better footwork and just should be better.
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