JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-02-24 09:39 PM - Post#361149
The 39th edition of the Ivy Women’s basketball 56-game 62-day round robin commences this Saturday.
The Ivies went 53-43 in D1 out of conference games, 10-15 vs. the Power 6 – currently the 11th best NCAA Net Conference. Using NCCA NET as the ranking (as it’s what the NCAA uses to consider teams for post season and the only the Ivy Tiebreaker source), the Ivies have three top 100 teams (37.5%) - the only Mid-Major conference that is higher on a percentage basis is the A10 [15] is higher at 40%. Only 10 Power 6 schools are not in the Top 100!
Team NET
Princeton 51
Columbia 67
Harvard 71
Brown 153
Penn 204
Cornell 216
Yale 249
Dartmouth 324
Her Hoops Stats in general on the same page as the NET, except for Brown & Penn. I mention Her Hoops Stats (HHS), as it is the source I use for stats and the site provides projected results.
HHS & NET both see the world in two tiers: a three team race for first and a four-team race for the final Ivy Madness spot. But as none of the top three teams has been as dominant in 23-24 as they were in 22-23, I believe there will be more 60-40 games than projected by the models, and anyone could lose on either 15 or 16 March.
HHS has a win probability for each game and who is favored by an expected score – both tiers are vey close
Team Expected Ws Favored
Princeton 11.65 12
Columbia 11.61 13
Harvard 10.55 11
Penn 5.91 7
Brown 5.40 5
Yale 4.52 4
Cornell 4.47 4
Dartmouth 1.90 0
Based on the out of conference results, Columbia, Harvard & Princeton are all deserving of being ranked Top 100 NCAA NET – and with All-Ivy Talent, 5th year player experience, depth, success in the out of conferences campaign, recent post season successes, coaching – seemingly too much consistency not to make Ivy Madness.
• I believe all three could end the season as WBIT eligible, but only perhaps a 14-0/13-1 Princeton team, who still has the core of teams that almost twice made the sweet 16, could maintain a low 40 NCAA NET after an Ivy Madness loss and overcome the NCAA Tournament Committee’s Power 6 favoritism
Today, I would not expect any team to earn an at large bid, as I do not see anyone going 14-0 or even 13-1 – I believe a two-way tie at 12-2 or 11-3 is more likely than a two-way tie at 13-1 or any team at 14-0.
• Columbia, with Ivy Madness on their home-court, has the slight advantage for the NCAAs, but they will also face the increased NCAA tournament expectation of winning at home. Currently Columbia at home would be a 4.1-point favorite over Princeton and a 7.1-point favorite over Harvard – double digits over the remining five.
• Key games for the likely #1 seed:
13 January Princeton at Harvard
20 January Columbia at Princeton
2 February Harvard at Columbia
17 February Columbia at Harvard
24 February Princeton at Columbia
1 March Harvard at Princeton
• The loss of Harmoni Turner makes it harder to place the Crimson at the same level as the Lions and Tigers. But Harvard has played very well coming out of exams, such that even without Turner they appear to have enough firepower to be closer to second than fourth.
Unlike the out of conference season where opponents may not have enough film or time between games to prepare, in season everyone should know what players and teams want to do, and the 62-day Ivy Season affords the time for players to rest and develop, injures to heal and coaches add to their offensive sets and defensive schemes.
I believe Brown and Penn are both in the next tier – with third to fifth as the likely range – Brown is building on their good 22-23 play and with their Big East wins has the higher tie breaking NET ranking. Penn, who played a lot of players with under 400 min of college experience and did not have Floor Toonders early is favored by Her Hoops Stats. Both metrics are backwards looking – stating the obvious: the Ivy Madness representative will come down to the team with the best player development, coaching strategy and most consistent play over the next 14 games – and of course the better bit of luck.
• Two key matchups – if one team can sweep, it should be very hard for the other team to make up two games in the loss column:
2 February Brown at Penn – 1st game of a back-to-back
17 February Penn at Brown – 2nd game of a back-to-back
Best possible chance for a Top 3 upset for both teams: Home game vs. Harvard
Most likely Trap Games for both teams: At Cornell & At Yale
• Scheduling Advantage: Slightly to Penn – as Brown is only favored twice in the first seven games and Penn is favored four times … so Brown may have the added pressure of playing catchup to make fourth.
At the midway point - Penn is expected to be ahead of Brown. The top 3 being close to clinching Ivy Madness tickets.
Team Favored first 7 games
Princeton 6
Columbia 6
Harvard 6
Penn 4
Brown 2
Cornell 2
Yale 2
Dartmouth 0
Penn has five of their starting eight at home – three of the four two game weekends have the second game at home. Plus they play Harvard at home as part of a women’s-men’s doubleheader.
Brown only has two home games (one Harvard) in their starting five. I feel they need to win on the road and be 4-1 / 5-0 headed into Penn on 2 February – as that starts a killer seven-game gauntlet (including two back-to-backs) of Penn-Princeton-Columbia-P rinceton-Penn-Harvard-Col umbia.
Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale all dangerous to pull a few upsets, we will haveto see if any have consistency to compete or / make Ivy Madness.
• Cornell is playing better then expectations, and the trip to Ithaca is always a challenge. – likely sixth or seventh
• Dartmouth is also playing better than expectations, so someone could fall trap to a hot Big Green on a cold winter night. They are headed in the right direction, but still likely eight.
• Yale is playing worse than expectations, but as they just showed vs. Quinnipiac they have the talent (especially in their all Ivy backcourt) to make Ivy Madness, so they all could cause a few upsets. But they only have ten players, so Ivy weekends will be very hard on this team – especially with the Ps being two of them. I could see them finishing fourth to seventh.
Interesting scheduling quirks: The 2024 Ivy schedule, despite being 10 weeks, does not space out game between common opponents. The teams will play their Game1 opponent in Game 5 – before they play three other Ivies. Ivy Weekend 1: Games 6 & 7 are reversed in Ivy Weekend 2: Games 9 & 10. Also interesting is Ivy Weekend 3 (Games 12 & 13): Four teams will have men’s & women’s home doubleheaders – but not against the same Ivy pair.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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Re: Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-03-24 09:17 AM - Post#361166
In response to JDP
I believe the Harvard team starting the Ivy schedule is not the same one that is represented in the non-conference statistics. They have not beaten a quality opponent since Turner went down. Not only was she having a POY level season, she played the position that is arguably the hardest to replace. I could easily see them sliding out of Ivy madness contention.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-03-24 08:22 PM - Post#361208
In response to CM
I was back and forth on where to slot Harvard. In the end I feel I punted by placing the Crimson with Columbia & Princeton, but said Harvard’s range is third to fifth. Some insights into the deliberation:
The case for slotting Harvard with Brown & Penn: Immediately after Turner’s injury in Week 5, the Crimson lost at then 138 NET Maine 79-61 (A Maine team Penn beat at home 72-69) and then the Crimson lost to then 236 NET Boston U 80-77. Harvard went from a 61 NET to a 94 NET.
The case for slotting Harvard with Columbia & Princeton: Last week, during Week 8, the Crimson lost to then 76 NET Rhode Island 59-56. Princeton lost to the Rams by a similar margin 60-58. The Crimson then blew out then 173 Delaware 88-58. Harvard went from an 89 NET to a 70 NET.
In contemplating where Harvard may have been if it were not for Turner’s injury, they were beating Michigan and may have been the regular season favorite. Given the Week 8 results, I felt the Crimson are still closer to Columbia & Princeton then Brown & Penn.
Given early season games with Princeton, Brown & Penn – we will quickly be able to revise the calibration.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-04-24 08:38 PM - Post#361258
In response to JDP
Yes, the loss of Turner hurts, but I see Harvard as the clear third best team right now behind Columbia.
The 4th spot looks wide open, but I’d put Brown down as the pre-season favorite over Penn and Cornell.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-04-24 08:38 PM - Post#361259
In response to JDP
A much more eloquent women's preview:
https://www.thenexthoops.com/ncaaw/mid-majors/stor ...
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-04-24 10:02 PM - Post#361261
In response to JDP
JDP: Could you post the win probabilities (per HHS) for the Lions and Tigers for each game?
I ask because I ran my own numbers to determine the probability of a 14-0, 13-1, etc. record for each.
Edited by PeteD on 01-04-24 10:14 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-05-24 08:16 AM - Post#361269
In response to PeteD
I've had the chance to watch complete games of Harvard, Brown, and Penn in their non-conference games and they each have certain issues which could keep them from being, in my mind, the clear cut third ranked team in the league.
-Harvard didn't just lose Turner's points, her injury left them without a functional point guard. Both of their remaining best player - Mullaney and Rodriquez - thrive with a good passer/organizer to get them the ball. Opposing team pressing up on Harvard once they get over half court could effectively remove Mullaney and Rodriguez as threats.
-Brown has flashes of being quite good followed very quickly by flashes of terrible decision making that undo their chances. Kyla Jones is their leading scorer but her iso heavy game will not age well, I fear, when Ivy coaches can prepare for it. In the USF game she single handedly squelched their comeback with some terrible tunnel vision turnovers - she has 2x as many TOs as assists on the season. As well, Mauricio is so undersized I think most coaches will go right at her to play her off the floor. To me, the more Arnolie is used as the hub of the team the better they'll play.
-Penn can score a lot of points but they also give up a lot of points. Obi's variable motor is a real problem, she goes through long periods where she looks uninterested in playing hard. Gayle is a legit bucket but isn't much of a distributor and remains an inefficient scorer. Almqvist can really score if the other team allows her to get to her right hand in the lane, but I'd imagine opposing coaches will solve that quite quickly.
All this is to say whoever comes third behind Columbia and Princeton figures to be well behind.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
01-05-24 12:21 PM - Post#361282
In response to PeteD
Updated as of 3 Jan:
Columbia – only underdog at Princeton (Game 4)
Penn 80.1 - 59.2
Cornell 78.5 - 54.9
Yale 80.3 - 56.8
Princeton 62.6 - 66.8
Penn 75.8 - 62.0
Harvard 73.8 - 66.8
Dartmouth 77.3 - 47.8
Brown 78.3 - 56.8
Dartmouth 73.2 - 49.5
Harvard 70.1 - 70.0
Princeton 67.7 - 63.5
Brown 73.7 - 58.8
Yale 76.8 - 59.5
Cornell 74.3 - 57.1
Columbia win probabilities
Penn 0.94
Cornell 0.97
Yale 0.96
Princeton 0.36
Penn 0.87
Harvard 0.72
Dartmouth 0.99
Brown 0.95
Dartmouth 0.98
Harvard 0.51
Princeton 0.64
Brown 0.89
Yale 0.91
Cornell 0.92
Total 11.59
Princeton – only underdog at Harvard (Game 2) & at Columbia (Game 11)
Cornell 67.0 - 51.6
Harvard 63.1 - 63.4
Dartmouth 66.1 - 44.5
Columbia 66.8 - 62.6
Cornell 70.5 - 48.2
Yale 72.2 - 50.0
Brown 70.4 - 49.9
Penn 68.4 - 56.2
Brown 66.6 - 53.2
Yale 69.2 - 53.7
Columbia 63.5 - 67.7
Harvard 66.1 - 59.2
Dartmouth 69.3 - 41.5
Penn 71.9 - 52.1
Princeton win probabilities
Cornell 0.92
Harvard 0.49
Dartmouth 0.98
Columbia 0.65
Cornell 0.97
Yale 0.97
Brown 0.96
Penn 0.86
Brown 0.89
Yale 0.91
Columbia 0.36
Harvard 0.74
Dartmouth 0.99
Penn 0.95
Total 11.64
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 12:33 PM - Post#361283
In response to CM
All good developmental points - I believe 3-5 all will be based on which teams evolve the most over the next 14 games ... I also believe Yale, with their All-Ivy backcourt, could be still relevant.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
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Age: 58
Reg: 11-15-17
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01-05-24 12:45 PM - Post#361284
In response to JDP
surprising that Princeton is underdog
at Harvard. I would make that bet.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 01:18 PM - Post#361286
In response to LocalTiger
The line has moved around that game- Princeton was slightly favored - to a pick em - to now Harvard +0.3
I expect the recent at Rhode Island game losses for both teams (Princeton 58-60 loss & Harvard 56-59 loss) influences the model. HHS tends to give the home team +7 points advantage to start.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-05-24 02:20 PM - Post#361289
In response to JDP
Interesting to see, thanks for posting. The one that is most surprising to me is Columbia 64% at home vs Princeton. The Tigers have dominated in Levien in recent years. I understand HHS probably doesn’t take that into consideration, but still surprising. I think some of the other win probabilities for Columbia are a little high, but pretty close to the numbers that I had.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-05-24 03:16 PM - Post#361290
In response to JDP
Have you watched Yale play this year? Their team chemistry is brutal. They cannot stop anybody and for such an experienced team they play with very little cohesion. A team that returned their entire roster should be much better than they have been, and there must be a reason for that.
I could see Yale finishing 8th.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 03:45 PM - Post#361292
In response to CM
Perhaps its too many recent Eagles losses against low win teams shading my views ... if any of the projected bottom three make their way into the Brown / Harvard / Penn mix, my best guess is Yale with their all-ivy backcourt ... then again, when a team is in a downward spiral - and they have the potential to start the Ivies 1-6 - who knows about the last seven.
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-05-24 04:04 PM - Post#361294
In response to PeteD
In looking at Actual Margin - HHS Predicted Margin ... the range is 100: -60 to +40 with a median of 3 (HHS underestimating the Ivies). Their model is improving, as the average error is down to 1.5 - was as high as 6.6
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JDP
Masters Student
Posts: 577
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-06-24 02:27 PM - Post#361309
In response to JDP
One of the early nice surprises is that Harmoni Turner is back on the court for Harvard - 12 points already.
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HARVARDDADGRAD
Postdoc
Posts: 2692
Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
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01-06-24 03:13 PM - Post#361317
In response to JDP
And so is Malik Mack.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-06-24 05:50 PM - Post#361358
In response to JDP
I cannot remember a team saying a player was out for the year and then that player returns within 6 weeks. No knee brace, no hitch in her gait at all. In fact, she went crazy on Yale. Super curious what happened.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 556
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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01-07-24 04:30 AM - Post#361387
In response to CM
Was thinking the same thing… glad she’s back, but wonder what happened. Harmoni reposted on Twitter on Dec 11 that her injury would require surgery.
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CM
Masters Student
Posts: 423
Reg: 10-11-18
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01-07-24 06:55 AM - Post#361390
In response to PeteD
She played so well, it was incredible. If she can make a run at Ivy POY, which seems totally in play, it would be one of the better stories in WBB.
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