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Username Post: Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition        (Topic#27706)
Columbia 37P6 
Postdoc
Posts: 2188

Reg: 02-14-06
01-07-24 10:37 AM - Post#361396    
    In response to CM

Someone must have given Turner the wrong medical diagnosis that her injury required surgery. For her sake, we can all be grateful that proved not to be the case.

 
HARVARDDADGRAD 
Postdoc
Posts: 2709

Loc: New Jersey
Reg: 01-21-14
01-07-24 02:35 PM - Post#361409    
    In response to Columbia 37P6

Apparently she isn't seeing the same physician that Seth Towns did. Seth was supposed to return and did - years later and in Ohio.

Chris Ledlum actually did return after a similar injury, but was eventually shut down.

We kept waiting for Bryce Aiken's return, which occured at Seton Hall.

I remember seeing Siyani Chambers wheeling a handcart in the Eliot House courtyard the day before it was announced he'd be out for the season.

Justice Ajogbor has been out of his cast for at least 10 days now, but didn't dress against Princeton.

I've given up.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-07-24 03:11 PM - Post#361412    
    In response to HARVARDDADGRAD

Week 1

Games went according to expectation for Ws & Ls.

NCAA at large: Princeton is likely on bubble
WBIT: Columbia, Harvard, Princeton
WNIT: Brown

The win expectations remain the same with the expectations of Brown & Penn flipping.

Team Expected Wins
Princeton 11.9
Columbia 11.5
Harvard 10.7
Brown 6.1
Penn 5.9
Yale 4.4
Cornell 3.9
Dartmouth 1.6

The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:

Brown improved by 9 with a 26 point win over Dartmouth (expectation was 6)
Princeton improved by 7 with a 41 point win over Cornell (expectation was 15)
Harvard improved by 1 with a 19 point win over Yale (expectation was 19)
Columbia fell by a 4 with a 13 point win over Penn (expectation was 21)

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/spo...


School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 142 -9
Columbia 68 4
Cornell 240 25
Dartmouth 330 8
Harvard 76 -1
Penn 197 -3
Princeton 43 -7
Yale 247 2
Overall 168 2


 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-14-24 12:36 PM - Post#361651    
    In response to JDP

Week 2

Games went according to expectation for Ws & Ls.

• Princeton’s 23 point margin of victory at Harvard, was impressive as the models suggested a pickem. The Tigers have started the Ivy season much better than their early December stretch where the results were much closer

• Brown & Penn both got road wins in trap games … The Bears built a nice lead early and hung on … The Quakers struggled early, but played a good second half … any road win as a good win.


NCAA (68) at large: Princeton at a 41 NET is still likely on bubble given ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 46 NET

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton – current projected bubble 90 NET

WNIT (48): Brown – current projected bubble 145 NET – expect to increase to high 160s as high NET teams with losing records increases

The win expectations generally remain the same with the exception of Princeton improving by a half game – reflecting their very good start – but games favored remain the same … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.4 13
Columbia 11.5 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Brown 6.6 7
Penn 6.4 7
Yale 3.9 3
Cornell 3.8 3
Dartmouth 1.4 0

The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:

Penn improved by 7 with a 14 point win over Dartmouth (expectation was 8)
Brown improved by 5 with a 5 point win over Yale (expectation was 1)
Princeton improved by 2 with a 23 point win over Harvard (expectation was pickem) = the Crimson only dropped 2 spots – showing how hard it is to improve in the top 40, even when you beat a top 100 team, and that you do not fall that much either


Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET

School NET GoG (- good)
Princeton 41 -2
Columbia 70 -1
Harvard 80 2
Brown 137 -5
Penn 186 -7
Cornell 244 3
Yale 252 5
Dartmouth 328 -1
Overall 167 -1


 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-16-24 09:05 PM - Post#361788    
    In response to JDP

Week 2 – Game 3 – 21% complete

Games again went according to expectation for Ws & Ls. And the expected tiering is emerging.

Princeton & Columbia are the two best teams with Harvard in third with Brown and Penn in a close battle for fourth and who may have the best tiebreaker. If the Bears or Quakers can sweep their regular season meetings, it would be unlikely the other could win three more to avoid the tiebreaker process.

Next week the two most important matchups are when the Lions visit the Tigers and the Quakers travel to the Crimson.


NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 40 NET is still likely on bubble given ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 46 NET

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton – current projected bubble 90 NET

WNIT (48): Brown – current projected bubble 145 NET – expect to increase to high 160s as high NET teams with losing records increases

The win expectations generally remain the same with Brown & Penn flipping spots … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.4 13
Columbia 11.7 13
Harvard 10.3 10
Penn 6.7 7
Brown 6.3 7
Yale 3.7 3
Cornell 3.6 3
Dartmouth 1.4 0

The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:

Penn improved by 8 with a 13 point win over Cornell (expectation was 9 by HHS and 10.5 by ESPN)
Brown dropped by 13 with a 14 point loss at Harvard (expectation was 9 point loss by HHS and 10.5 by ESPN)

Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 146 13
Columbia 67 -4
Cornell 249 2
Dartmouth 328 -1
Harvard 75 -4
Penn 179 -8
Princeton 40 0
Yale 252 1
Overall 167 0

A quick update as to who is starting the Ivy Season hot – PER > 15 & Min > 20. Not surpassing to see so many Tigers and Lions.

PLAYER TEAM PER PTS
Harmoni Turner Harvard 34.8 17.7
Madison St. Rose Princeton 32.2 16.7
Cecelia Collins Columbia 29.4 14.0
Elena Rodriguez Harvard 27.4 10.3
Abbey Hsu Columbia 25.7 19.3
Stina Almqvist Penn 25.2 19.3
Skye Belker Princeton 24.9 8.7
Kitty Henderson Columbia 23.2 12.3
Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 21.9 11.0
Ellie Mitchell Princeton 21.8 5.3

Who are the top freshman PER > 10 & Min > 15

PLAYER TEAM PER PTS
Riley Weiss Columbia 25.2 10.3
Skye Belker Princeton 24.9 8.7
Abigail Wright Harvard 22.3 6.7
Mataya Gayle Penn 14.4 10.0
Ese Ogbevire Penn 14.1 6.3


 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-21-24 10:43 AM - Post#361941    
    In response to CM

At some point in the second halves of their games, Columbia, Cornell and Dartmouth were all favored by ESPN to win. But for the fourth consecutive time, no Ivy Women’s upsets.

Princeton has been the clear best team over the first four games. And with their large wins over the likely 2-3 Ivy Madness matchup (Columbia & Harvard), plus their NET advantage – not saying they have mathematically locked up the first seed – but given the Ivy tiebreaker logic, for either the Crimson or Lions to be the first seed, the Tigers will need at least two losses. The only remaining game where Princeton is not favored, their game at Columbia.

Second and third currently appear to be a battle between Columbia and Harvard … The order does not matter, as the Lions will have home court. Their primary focus should be to avoid falling to fourth.

The race for the last Ivy Madness spot continues to be between Brown and Penn. The Bears can likely play for the split in the meetings. The Quakers most likely path to fourth is by sweeping the season matchup.

Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale round out the league at 1-11.

Game 5 next week is the flipside of the Game 1 contests,

NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 37 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42 NET

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton safely in – current projected bubble 90 NET

WNIT (48): Brown (145 NET) – current projected bubble 157 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases. Penn is likely on the bubble

The win expectations generally remain the same with Brown & Penn flipping spots … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even thought both are projected at 7-7.

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.8 13
Columbia 11.2 12
Harvard 10.4 11
Brown 6.8 7
Penn 6.6 7
Yale 3.8 3
Cornell 3.1 3
Dartmouth 1.3 0

The NET movement was more interesting in the relative movements – especially from the implications of what teams can do to improve their NET during conference play:

Princeton improved by 3 with a there 15 point win over Columbia – which fell by 6

Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 145 -4
Columbia 71 5
Cornell 253 6
Dartmouth 325 -4
Harvard 78 1
Penn 170 -3
Princeton 37 -3
Yale 258 5
Overall 167 0


 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-28-24 12:21 PM - Post#362310    
    In response to JDP

January games finish with the favoreds still winning, and after five game the standings are as one would have expected.

Princeton has been the clear best team in January and most likely 1st seed.

Second and third currently continue to appear to be a battle between Columbia and Harvard … Likely edge to the Lions, but the order does not matter, as Columbia will have home court.

The race for the last Ivy Madness spot continues to be between Brown and Penn. Next Friday’s game at the Palestra, given the NET tiebreaker, is far more important for the Quakers than Brown.

Cornell, Dartmouth and Yale round out the League at 1-14. In the post Covid era – the bottom three teams are 15-84 with only two wins against the top five teams (both vs. the 4th seed).

NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 36 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 91 NET

WNIT (48): Brown (154 NET) – current projected bubble 156 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases. Penn (192) has improve it NET 25-30

The win expectations generally remain the same with Columbia now being favored at Harvard … At this projection point, and applying Ivy Tiebreakers, Princeton is 1st over Columbia due to a better NET, and Brown is the 4th seed having a better NET than Penn – even though both are projected at 7-7.

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.9 13
Columbia 11.5 13
Harvard 10.4 10
Brown 6.9 7
Penn 6.3 7
Yale 3.8 3
Cornell 2.9 3
Dartmouth 1.3 0

Ivies are still 11th best conference by NET

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 154 11
Columbia 64 -7
Cornell 257 9
Dartmouth 315 -10
Harvard 78 0
Penn 192 16
Princeton 34 -2
Yale 250 -9
Overall 168 1


 
TigerFan 
PhD Student
Posts: 1894

Reg: 11-21-04
01-29-24 10:20 PM - Post#362370    
    In response to JDP

Princeton women have just cracked the AP Top 25. FWIW, Charlie Creme from ESPN has the Tigers pulling a #10 seed in his bracketology this week.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
01-30-24 05:04 PM - Post#362415    
    In response to TigerFan

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2024/1/30/24055843...

Still feel Princeton is the only a second team possibility - Doubt Columbia can increase enough in the NET to be at large ... to do so, likely means they beating the Tigers by a lot, dropping Princeton's NET in the process.

NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 36 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET



 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-03-24 10:27 AM - Post#362650    
    In response to CM

The favored won Game 6 – the meta game is in the relative NET movements

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 167 16
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 255 -2
Dartmouth 318 5
Harvard 83 2
Penn 172 -17
Princeton 32 0
Yale 250 0
Overall 167 0

In looking at the most likely paths:

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 12.9 13
Columbia 11.8 13
Harvard 10.0 10
Penn 7.0 8
Brown 6.3 6
Yale 3.7 3
Cornell 3.3 3
Dartmouth 1.0 0

For #1 Seed … Princeton favored over Columba: While Columbia is a slight favorite at home to Princeton – and both are favored in every other game – I do not expect the Lions will catch the Tigers in the NET

For #2 Seed … Columbia ... the win over Harvard last night, and being a favorite over Princeton in a game, gives the Lions many more paths

For #3 Seed … Harvard … I do not see any potential 4 seed catching the Crimson on NET

For #4 Sees … Penn has more paths than Brown: If the Quakers sweep the Bears (next game 17 Feb at Brown – and while the game is still a toss-up the Penn became the technical favorite by 0.2 from a 1.9 road underdog), Brown’s path to fourth, while mathematically possible, would require multiple upsets – so a must win for the Bears and while not a “must” win for Penn, it’s the next level down of terminology.

If the teams split, the tie breakers will now first look Ivy seed by seed to see if any team has a better record. Most likely case, both teams finish 7-7. No wins vs top 3 and 6 wins vs. bottom 3.

So the most likely tiebreaker is NET: Here is where the size of Penn win (21 when they were favored by 4) was criterial, as it moved the Quarter’s NET -17 to 172 and the Bears +16 to 167. So from here on out, each team will be playing the NET game, and actual to expected point differential is crucial. I do not know who has the easier path to the better NET: Brown has five games where they are 15-20 point underdog, their style is not to play slow and keep the game in the 50s, which would be a strategy to cover the spread. Penn’s mix of point spreads is much tighter – so while they likely can win some by more, its also easier to lose by more.


Edited by JDP on 02-03-24 10:36 AM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
PeteD 
Masters Student
Posts: 558
PeteD
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
02-03-24 11:12 PM - Post#362724    
    In response to JDP

Was Yale's win at the Palestra the first real upset so far? That was a shocker, and gives a boost to Brown's chances for the #4 seed. Needless to say, the Penn/Brown matchup in Providence will be huge.

The Top 3 appear locked in right now, although Elena Rodriguez went down with an injury on Friday night at Levien and did not play today in Harvard's win at Cornell. Krupa and Zaric seem very capable, but the loss of Rodriguez for any length of time would be tough on the Crimson.

 
CM 
Masters Student
Posts: 445

Reg: 10-11-18
02-04-24 09:52 AM - Post#362733    
    In response to PeteD

Great win for Yale, a team that has been in freefall all season despite returning nearly its entire team from a year ago. Meanwhile Penn looks sluggish and disjointed, in general, with only glimmers of fire or fight. The gap between the top three in the Ivy and everyone else is cavernous and getting wider.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
02-04-24 02:05 PM - Post#362761    
    In response to CM

At the halfway point – and pretty much to script, except the Penn loss to Yale, which was the only upset in the first 28 games.

From the first seven, the first three seeds look to be Princeton, Columbia, Harvard.

Fourth is still a toss-up with Yale now having more paths to fourth. But the Penn at Brown game on Saturday 17 Feb now appears to must win game to become an Ivy Madness participant.

Interestingly enough, since the start of Ivy Madness, the fifth-place team (29-31) has a better record against the 1-2-3-6-7 place teams then the fourth place (24-36) with 8 wins over 1-3 vs. only 6 wins for 4th place. Where is the differential: the 4th place team is 10-2 vs. the fifth-place team. Cleary showing how powerful sweeps are in the tiebreaking process.

NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 31 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line 42-44 NET

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 90 NET – but the Crimson (84) have been drifting towards the bubble

WNIT (48): Brown (163 NET) – current projected bubble 163 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases.

The favored is for the renaming games

Team Expected Favored
Princeton 13.0 6
Columbia 11.8 7
Harvard 10.1 5
Brown 6.3 3
Penn 6.1 3
Yale 4.6 2
Cornell 3.1 2
Dartmouth 1.0 0


School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 163 -4
Columbia 64 3
Cornell 253 -2
Dartmouth 310 -8
Harvard 84 1
Penn 183 11
Princeton 31 -1
Yale 245 -5
Overall 167 -1

Just an update on out of conference NETs

Princeton 116
Columbia 135
Harvard 147
Penn 163
Brown 175
Yale 186
Cornell 194
Dartmouth 252
Average OCC 168


 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-09-24 05:55 PM - Post#362922    
    In response to JDP

A few mid way stats:

Top 20 players by PER (play min 20 min per game) - dominated by Columbia & Princeton:

SEASON PLAYER TEAM PER
2023-24 Cecelia Collins Columbia 30.2
2023-24 Harmoni Turner Harvard 28.9
2023-24 Kaitlyn Chen Princeton 28.9
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 28.4
2023-24 Chet Nweke Princeton 28.1
2023-24 Madison St. Rose Princeton 26.5
2023-24 Ellie Mitchell Princeton 26
2023-24 Kitty Henderson Columbia 25.6
2023-24 Katie Krupa Harvard 25.4
2023-24 Skye Belker Princeton 23.9
2023-24 Elena Rodriguez Harvard 23.2
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 21.4
2023-24 Mataya Gayle Penn 19.7
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 18.5
2023-24 Brenna McDonald Yale 17.9
2023-24 Jordan Obi Penn 17.8
2023-24 Nyla McGill Yale 17.1
2023-24 Kyla Jones Brown 16.8
2023-24 Emily Pape Cornell 16.4
2023-24 Summer Parker-Hall Cornell 14.9

Top Freshman by PER

SEASON PLAYER TEAM PER
2023-24 Skye Belker Princeton 23.9
2023-24 Mataya Gayle Penn 19.7
2023-24 Fliss Henderson Columbia 11.1
2023-24 Olivia Young Brown 10.7

Players scoring more than 15 a game

SEASON PLAYER TEAM PTS
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 19.9
2023-24 Harmoni Turner Harvard 18.7
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 15.9
2023-24 Madison St. Rose Princeton 15.4
2023-24 Cecelia Collins Columbia 15.4
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 15.1

Players rebounding more than 7 a game

SEASON PLAYER TEAM TRB
2023-24 Ellie Mitchell Princeton 10.1
2023-24 Jordan Obi Penn 8.9
2023-24 Elena Rodriguez Harvard 7.7
2023-24 Stina Almqvist Penn 7.4
2023-24 Nyla McGill Yale 7.4
2023-24 Doreen Ariik Dartmouth 7

Best perimeter shooters - min 4 attempts per game

SEASON PLAYER TEAM 3P% 3P A
2023-24 Abbey Hsu Columbia 41.80% 7.9
2023-24 Katie Krupa Harvard 39.30% 4
2023-24 Riley Weiss Columbia 36.70% 4.3
2023-24 Grace Arnolie Brown 36.40% 7.9
2023-24 Isabella Mauricio Brown 36.20% 6.7



Edited by JDP on 02-09-24 05:55 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
Ivy WBB 2024 Conference Edition
02-11-24 01:16 PM - Post#363110    
    In response to JDP

Nothing much changed with Game 8 – Yale did manage to achieve its second consecutive upset, so they have placed themselves into the Seed 4 conversation. But not much really changed with Expected Wins or NET ratings

Team Expected Favored last 6
Princeton 13.1 5
Columbia 11.8 6
Harvard 10.2 4
Brown 6.3 3
Penn 6.0 3
Yale 5.1 2
Cornell 2.5 1
Dartmouth 1.0 0

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 166 3
Columbia 64 1
Cornell 257 4
Dartmouth 311 0
Harvard 85 0
Penn 182 0
Princeton 32 -1
Yale 243 -2
Overall 168 0


Next weekend is all about clarity on what Brown, Penn and Yale would have to do, or have happen to others to gain the 4th seed. No one will be mathematically eliminated – even if the Quakers sweep or are swept. What is mainly in play is the Ivy tie breakers – Yale can gain the 1st tier tiebreaker over Penn and Penn can gain the 1st tier tie breaker over Brown

NCAA (68 teams) at large: Princeton at a 32 NET is likely an at large if they are 15-1 … 14-2, perhaps – based on ESPN’s Last Four In and Out – current projected cut line low 40s

WBIT (32): Columbia, Harvard, Princeton all safely in – current projected bubble 93 NET – but the Crimson (85) have been drifting towards the bubble

WNIT (48): Brown (166 NET) – current projected bubble 169 NET – expect to increase to low 170s as the number of high NET teams with losing records increases.

Edited by JDP on 02-11-24 01:16 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
02-14-24 11:49 PM - Post#363210    
    In response to JDP

The complete Ivy Women's Tiebreaker Rules

https://ivyleague.com/sports/2024/2/13/WBB_ 0213243...

Fortunately, no schools are assigned the same NCAA NET, so the process will aways end at clause c and the smh clause d (draw shall be conducted by the Executive Director following the last contest of the regular season) will never be used.

 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
02-19-24 11:39 AM - Post#363531    
    In response to JDP

Seedings are close. to being set

#1 Seed: Princeton most likely - and a likely a NCAA large with a Ivy Madness loss ... perhaps even a regular season loss to C or H and a Ivy Madness loss

• Princeton: at Columbia, Harvard, Dartmouth, Penn – Her Hoop Stat (HHS) projection 3-1
• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0

• Princeton (26 NET), even if they lose to Columbia (62), but win out, still likely has an insurmountable NET advantage over the Lions.
• Columbia to get the #1 seed, most likely needs to beat Princeton and then have one less loss than the Tigers in the remaining 3.
• The Lions will be rooting for Harvard to beat Princeton – but who does the Crimson want to play in the opening round of Ivy Madness – with a win Harvard would likely play a revenge game against Princeton and be a 7.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a neutral court, or with a loss they would likely face Columbia and be a 8.6 point underdog with a 24% chance of winning on a true “away” court. Perhaps a shade better odds facing the Lions in the Tournament opening round, as the fans of the winner (and some of the losers) of the 1-4 game will be rooting against the home court Lions?

#2 / #3 Seed: Not that it matters for the semifinal - Assuming Columbia #2 – Harvard #3

• Columbia: Princeton, at Brown, at Yale, at Cornell – HHS projection 4-0
• Harvard: Brown, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 3-1

• Harvard being swept by Columbia, needs to finish one game ahead of the Lions to be the second seed, and the Crimson are two behind in the loss column - so Columbia pretty much would need to lose out.

• If Harvard wants to make the WBIT- all four games do matter from a NET perspective – and at a 85 NET, Harvard is close to falling out with a bad loss.

#4 Seed: Brown has the clearest path

• Brown: At Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, Yale – HHS projection 2-2
• Penn: At Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, at Princeton, at Penn, Dartmouth – HHS projection 2-2

• What does Brown have to fear: Penn beating Harvard and/or Princeton to get to 7-7 or 8-6 and losing on tiebreaker #2 – record against Ivy opponents by seed.
• And the Bears will be underdogs to Harvard and Columbia – a 78% chance they lose both, and the Quakers will be favored over Cornell and Dartmouth – a 61% chance they win both – so a 48% chance Penn will have two shots to control its own destiny against Harvard (30% chance of a win) and Princeton (4% chase of a win)

• Yale is still in play, but they would need to win out (D, C, C, B) and thread a fine needle between Brown & Penn on the common opponents tiebreaker – the Eli would loose on NET.

School NET WoW (- good)
Brown 165 0
Columbia 62 -2
Cornell 259 2
Dartmouth 311 -1
Harvard 85 0
Penn 177 -5
Princeton 26 -6
Yale 257 15
Overall 168 0


 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3071

Reg: 10-20-14
02-21-24 11:25 AM - Post#363704    
    In response to JDP

Since I have a similar post for MBB, here is one for WBB.

After 10 games

1. Princeton 10-0 (NET 26)
2. Columbia 8-1 (NET 62)
3. Harvard 7-3 (NET 85)
4. Brown 5-5 (NET 165)
--------------------
5. Penn 4-6 (NET 177)
6. Yale 3-7 (NET 257)
7. Cornell 1-9 (NET 258)
7. Dartmouth 1-9 (NET 311)

Princeton
vs Columbia 1-0 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Harvard 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)

Columbia
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Harvard 2-0
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Penn 2-0
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Dartmouth 2-0

Harvard
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/5)

Brown
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Yale (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Dartmouth 2-0

Penn
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Brown 1-1
vs Yale 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 2/24)
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)

Yale
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 0-1 (Game #2 away 2/24)

Cornell
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 1-1

Dartmouth
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/5)
vs Brown 0-2
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 home 2/24)
vs Cornell 1-1




 
JDP 
Masters Student
Posts: 588

Reg: 11-23-04
02-25-24 11:27 AM - Post#363969    
    In response to rbg

Three very exciting finishes bring us to the last three games of the season:

#1 Seed: Princeton

Most likely will be decided on NCAA Net as Columbia has a 75% chance of winning out and Princeton has an 80% chance. The Tigers NET fell to 29 after the loss and the Lions remained flat to 61.

Assuming Princeton wins out in the regular season, an at large bid should happen if the Tigers fall in Ivy Madness.

Columbia is rooting for Harvard, Dartmouth and or Penn!

#2/3 Seed: Columbia & Harvard

Most likely outcome – both teams are likely to make the WBIT if they do not win Ivy Madness


#4 Seed:

8-6: Brown is the front runner as they have a 5% chance to get to 8 wins, Penn has only a 1% chance to get to 8 wins. If both teams finish 8-6, Penn goes to Ivy Madness by virtue of wins over Princeton and Harvard.

7-7:

Brown is hoping the 65%+ probability that no one else gets to 7-7 holds, if someone else does, that team will have a better tie breaking win that the Bears, and that team (Penn or Yale) will go to Ivy Madness

Penn has about a 30% chance of reaching 7-7 – Wins at home over Dartmouth & Harvard are the best chance. But if the Bears lose to the Lions, the Quakers will have two opportunities (Harvard & Princeton) to reach 7-7 and go to Ivy Madness on tiebreakers.

Yale has about a 2% chance or reaching 7-7 – they need a sweep, which includes Columbia and Brown. In this Scenario, the Eli likely would go to Ivy Madness, unless Penn gets to 7-7 by beating Princeton (who should still be the #1 seed in that scenario)

6-8 / 5-9:

Still in play – would come down to who has the better NET between Brown, Penn or Yale

WNIT cutline is 172-177 range. Brown on WNIT bubble, but likely in. Penn on WNIT bubble.

School NET GoG (- good)
Brown 165 -1
Columbia 61 -2
Cornell 263 6
Dartmouth 327 15
Harvard 87 1
Penn 173 -4
Princeton 29 2
Yale 246 -13
Overall 169 1

 
rbg 
Postdoc
Posts: 3071

Reg: 10-20-14
02-26-24 12:03 AM - Post#363999    
    In response to JDP

After 11 games

*1. Princeton 10-1 (NET 29)
*2. Columbia 10-1 (NET 61)
*3. Harvard 8-3 (NET 86)
4. Brown 5-6 (NET 165)
--------------------
4. Penn 5-6 (NET 173)
6. Yale 4-7 (NET 246)
&7. Cornell 1-10 (NET 263)
*7. Dartmouth 1-10 (NET 327)

* - clinched spot in Ivy Tournament
& - eliminated from Ivy Tournament

Princeton
vs Columbia 1-1
vs Harvard 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)

Columbia
vs Princeton 1-1
vs Harvard 2-0
vs Brown 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Penn 2-0
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Dartmouth 2-0

Harvard
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Brown 2-0
vs Penn 1-0 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Yale 2-0
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/5)

Brown
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Penn 1-1
vs Yale 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Dartmouth 2-0

Penn
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Brown 1-1
vs Yale 1-1
vs Cornell 2-0
vs Dartmouth 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)

Yale
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/2)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/9)
vs Penn 1-1
vs Cornell 1-0 (Game #2 home 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 2-0

Cornell
vs Princeton 0-2
vs Columbia 0-1 (Game #2 home 3/9)
vs Harvard 0-2
vs Brown 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Penn 0-2
vs Yale 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Dartmouth 1-1

Dartmouth
vs Princeton 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/2)
vs Columbia 0-2
vs Harvard 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/5)
vs Brown 0-2
vs Penn 0-1 (Game #2 away 3/1)
vs Yale 0-2
vs Cornell 1-1



 
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