iogyhufi
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01-05-24 11:17 AM - Post#361281
Yale's had a non-con with a lot of ups and downs. The ups were pretty high (two wins against solid mid-major competition in California! smoked Colgate on a neutral floor! was better than Kansas for 30 minutes in Phog Allen!), but the lows were pretty low (lost to Fairfield at home, was Rhode Island's only D1 win in the span of a month, struggled mightily with a very mediocre Gardner-Webb team).
The optimist's view is that those early-season struggles were just a team struggling to find its identity. Danny Wolf is a tremendous player, but he has to have a super high usage rate to be most effective. All five Yale starters could easily be the best offensive player on a D1 team, so you could easily imagine that it could take time for everyone to find a role that they're comfortable with. And it's a great sign that the two best games of the year by far have been the two most recent ones where they've been at full strength - Kansas and Santa Clara. SC in particular looks promising, because they won in the way that Coach Jones prefers to win: limited SC to 0.83 points per possession, won the boards, and assisted on 64% of all made baskets. The trend line is positive, and Yale has the highest ceiling of any team in the league (which isn't a shot at Princeton so much as it's an acknowledgement of the crazy talent level on this roster - Yale has a returning 1st team all-Ivy player and he hasn't been the best player on the floor most nights!).
The pessimist's view looks at those lows and is concerned that they're still there lurking beneath the surface. Yale gives up too many open threes, in large part because of lapses in defensive positioning and awareness. They also have a tendency to let their offense stagnate - the ball can sometimes stick in one place for too long. If you view Princeton as the biggest obstacle to Yale's success this year, this concerns you. Princeton's biggest asset isn't their overwhelming talent (though they have plenty of talent), it's their discipline. They don't make too many mistakes, and they'll punish you for yours. The optimist looks at where Princeton is weak (paint defense, especially against slashing guards with size) and licks his chops. The pessimist imagines Matt Allocco going 6-7 from three because the person guarding him keeps sinking into no-man's-land on defense for no good reason.
Personally, I think there's more to be optimistic about. But this isn't a finished product yet. I'll be interested to see how they improve as the conference season moves along.
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ToothlessTiger
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01-05-24 03:19 PM - Post#361291
In response to iogyhufi
Intriguing analysis. OOC results go out the window now. That goes for 12-1 and 9-6!
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Tiger81
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01-05-24 09:34 PM - Post#361298
In response to ToothlessTiger
Yes indeed, it is sometimes hard to tell if the glass is half full or half empty!
Princeton may not match up well against Yale from a Tiger perspective. Wolf in particular will be a lot for Martini to handle, and although he is fearless and knows how to defend against bigger players, if he gets in foul trouble the remaining options are few and inexperienced.
But Princeton’s team defense and rebounding has been very good this year and I believe they will be able to match the intensity Yale always brings.
I’m happy to finally get league season underway, the next two months will be a lot of fun.
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james
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01-05-24 11:06 PM - Post#361299
In response to Tiger81
theoretically you travel across country playing one offs against different styles and levels of play not to maximize your wins per se but in a 1 bid league...figure out your warts, develop cohesian and improve.
this has always been James' MO publicly and privately.
this non conference has been very successful in so doing imo. i have been able to watch a lot of yale games almost all in fact for the first time since I played thanks to espn+ and my own transition away from finance and into coaching part time.
there have been warts and they have been obvious. if i had to distill it down into simple probabilistic terms using expected value theory as you espoused in original well articulated post.
the variance is rather high and the bands (upside/downside) have been wide.
i mean they were absolutely pounding rhode island in the 1st half and GWebb and ended up blowing the 1st and nearly the second.
the uvm game is almost too stupid to talk about. its hard to win at patrick gym. its like playing your nightmare hs rival in a packed crappy gym when the whole town is there bc its 0 degrees outsidr and there is nothing to do but drink. that was true in the 90s but uvm is better now.
anyway they won that game imo even tho it shows up as a loss.
why are the bands wide? james has been flummoxed on this. he to a man believes this is the most talent he has ever had. he probably regrets saying this so openly to donors and reporters alike at this point.
they havent (knock on wood) had any key injuries; wolf has emerged as a star and a unicorn not just for this level but nationally; and yet they yin yang their way along.
statistically the culprit was defense and orebs until it wasnt but then it resurfaces at times. yes the offense goes stagnant in part bc of how they are guarded and the lack of shooting balance.
its frustrating. i even get the sense the emergence of wolf at the expense of others and his usage demands (which shld be increased in my view) create connectivity.
the offense is defended differently than i can remember. it kind of started last year and he made some adjustments.
the latest adj is running it through wolf almost like princeton from the goodrich years.
but i still see too much hero ball creating stagnation and hot/cold intergame eras.
bez was the "hero" against howard and damn near blew the game offensively at a time he cldnt guard a kid 1 on 1 for like the first time ever.
anyway game in the dmv etc likely contributed.
this is too long but the good news is there are signs and the warts are out.
last year i cldnt believe how well they looked non conf against a less "unique" schedule snd they promptly laid serious eggs in the league.
you hope wolf is healthy and ready to go AND the warts/disappointments are fodder to realize the bull case and minimize the bear.
as an aside the coaching dynamics are so hard now! everyonr has ipads w data and analytics and unlimited video. and this is in high school ball. i have 2 4 stars and one in my house and we still are in battles every night w great coaching and strategy.
i have much respect for it and james and hope he and his staff evolve such that they can squeeze this lemon and realize their upside.
The IL like GA 6a hs ball is deeper at the top. cornell is very hard to play now and add princeton and a healthy harvard a young but talented penn etc. this wont br easy. but i know james is frustrated by the variance and you will get punished for it like never before in my view
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
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Looking Forward
01-05-24 11:26 PM - Post#361300
In response to james
As impressive as Wolf has been, I'm more afraid of a Yale team led by Mbeng and Poulakidas.
Those two looked unstoppable against us last season and taking the ball out of their hands sounds preferable to me. In fact, I suspect that Yale's underperformance in non-conf has a lot to do with that. Mahoney isn't getting enough shots either.
Of course, I could well be eating my words in a few weeks...
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james
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01-05-24 11:33 PM - Post#361301
In response to gokinsmen
*connectivity challenges.
less touches more pressing and more tendency toward hero ball when one does get the rock.
so to your above point...yea there is ego involved and fhe insertion of wolf as a focal point has some unintended consequences also.
knowling has been minimized as a default ball handler who can exploit his matchup and this appears to have effected his production to some extent. etc
i havent looked it up but i feel the matchup zone is also an issue. you see it more and its really a good way to play this team. but i have my own ptsd figuring out how to exploit so this is observational and not verified
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
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Looking Forward
01-05-24 11:39 PM - Post#361302
In response to james
Good point. I forgot to mention Knowling -- another underused All-Ivy caliber talent.
Speaking of matchup zone, Yale's defense (including rebounding) is tracking way behind last year's squad. It seems Jarvis and Kelly are sorely missed in the regard.
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james
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01-05-24 11:54 PM - Post#361303
In response to gokinsmen
kelly was probably the unsung hero in hindsight.
i always focused on what he was in hs and what i expected him to be at yale - a star.
but reality he sacrificed stats for the team and along w jarvis was a solid interchangeable piece on d and swiss army knife type.
so i agree
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ToothlessTiger
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01-06-24 07:36 AM - Post#361304
In response to james
Poulikidas was the difference vs Tigers last year going for 50 in the 2 regular season wins but only 7 in the tourney. Wolf could be thr difference this year. What a player!
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james
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01-06-24 11:50 AM - Post#361306
In response to ToothlessTiger
i watched a lot of wolf video this am in an effort to educate a hs big with ball skills/shooting range on how to best inplement his skills.
we agreed that his education shld involve ball handling drills exclusively. maybe i shld reach out to steve pikiell and figure out how to do the 8 ball dribble drill that he can apparently still do and did on my visit?
my simple view is it helps to grow to 7' late after you developed guard skills which wolf did.
but kind of obvious to limit wolf you need to limit his space. he isnt nearly as good when he cant put the ball down.
its frankly the opposite of what you teach a 7 footer and why he needs to work his post game to counter
wolf eats space but this has implications for your offense and how he is defended.
i think it reinforces any debate on usage and implications on spacing.
until i see otherwise danny needs to work without space and play with the ball up as a counter.
this concerns me a bit in driving full team offensive efficiency.
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james
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01-06-24 12:05 PM - Post#361307
In response to james
my last thought (i promise) generically is james said preseason the offense was further than the defense which was unusual for him but there could be a challenge getting everyone the shots they deserve.
i will butcher the quote but something along the lines "we could run at cornells pace+ and with new guys (wolf etc) still not get returners the shots they are accustomed to"
i think besides the defense/reb debate he foresaw the problem even if he minimized wolf's skill at this level off the dribble.
i would have liked to see some adjustments on pace by slow playing press etc to drive possessions up.
i think he sort of did this against gonzaga and they got run out in 2h
this tension of old vs new is an issue still. probably manifests in how he uses the bench also.
but at the end of the day you want to maximize wins not shots for guys but convincing guys to still play defense and reb while dealing w less shots is hard as they often bleed into each other.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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01-07-24 01:05 AM - Post#361384
In response to james
Adding a point to the optimist's category. Santa Clara's Adama Bal's last 7 point totals:
18 vs. Utah State
23 @ San Jose State
13 vs. Washington State
19 vs. Duquesne
4 vs. Yale
21 @ Loyola Marymount
28 @ Pepperdine
I respectfully submit that it seems that Bez Mbeng and Casey Simmons have the ability to guard ball-dominant quick-footed scorers effectively, a skill which one would imagine will be critical in the Ivy League (Lilly/Slajchert/Lee/etc.)
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james
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01-08-24 06:36 PM - Post#361472
In response to iogyhufi
interesting. did know Bal climbing draft boards...will be curious to see what happens vs gonzaga thurs
didnt bez guard the howard kid who went off ?
regardless i dont worry abt defensive capabilities of bez and simmons. its more can they contribute solid shooting efficiency etc
lastly good offense beats defense. xaivian lee and gang are tough. they spread the floor so well. but thats not the impt thing right now
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iogyhufi
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Looking Forward
01-08-24 06:38 PM - Post#361474
In response to james
I did check the Howard game. At least early on, it looks like they did a fair amount of cross-matching, so Bez often guarded Strong instead of Dockery. But I didn't rewatch the whole game, so it's hard to say for certain.
I agree good offense will beat good defense, but I think it's a lot harder to hit nonsense momentum shots (e.g., NBA range guarded 3s) like Lee was hitting late vs. Harvard unless you've been able to get momentum, which good defense makes harder. (Princeton fans, you can all pull this post up and point and laugh at me when Lee drops 52 on Yale in Jadwin.)
Edited by iogyhufi on 01-08-24 07:03 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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james
Masters Student
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01-09-24 12:49 AM - Post#361482
In response to iogyhufi
fair enough
i do think there was a leak somewhere in a few contests-fairfield and howard jump out where our guards were abused on d
now foarfield has solid guards i think (james said as much postgame) and we kickstarted a win streak for them by blowing that one
princeton has great guard play unfortunately its not just Lee
but so do a couple ivies really incl harvard if mack gets healthy
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