Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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01-14-24 04:39 PM - Post#361661
Looks to open Princeton -18 1/2 O/U 135
Tigers had difficulty with the Indians last season, losing in Hanover and going to OT at Jadwyn.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 03:47 PM - Post#361698
In response to Eric Von Zipper
43-30 at the half. Other than a Big Green run with 3 of our starters taking an early breather, it's been all Tigers.
I know MH wants to give our bench guys some burn, but not all at once and not in the first half. Didn't like that decision. Should be up 20.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2280
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 03:59 PM - Post#361699
In response to gokinsmen
43-30 at the half. Other than a Big Green run with 3 of our starters taking an early breather, it's been all Tigers.
I know MH wants to give our bench guys some burn, but not all at once and not in the first half. Didn't like that decision. Should be up 20.
Each of these subs could be called upon to play early in a game if two cheap fouls were called on a starter. So even if we lose this game, I like this.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:12 PM - Post#361702
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Playing 1-2 subs at a time is fine. 3 at a time does no one any good. They looked totally disorganized.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1352
Reg: 12-08-04
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:26 PM - Post#361703
In response to gokinsmen
Dartmouth was one terrible shooting team in the first half.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:36 PM - Post#361708
In response to sparman
Dartmouth is a threat to lose every game they play by 20 points or more. Nice of Princeton to carry them today and kill the over as well.
I shouldn't complain but I picked up a much younger girlfriend this year and I underestimated the carrying cost of same.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:40 PM - Post#361710
In response to sparman
Dartmouth is a threat to lose every game they play by 20 points or more. Nice of Princeton to carry them today and kill the over as well.
I shouldn't complain but I picked up a much younger girlfriend this year and I underestimated the carrying cost of same.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1352
Reg: 12-08-04
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:42 PM - Post#361711
In response to Eric Von Zipper
This game is part of the reason I doubt the ivy gets a second bid. League games always present the risk of underperforming against a woeful opponent. No one on the NCAA Committee will ever think that a 15-point win over Dartmouth on your home court should be considered anything other than a ding to your record.
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Eric Von Zipper
Senior
Posts: 343
Age: 71
Reg: 11-11-17
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:45 PM - Post#361714
In response to sparman
St. Joeseph's going into the tank certainly doesn't help matters.
I think if they end the season with 4 losses and don't win the tournament they get a play-in spot.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 04:54 PM - Post#361717
In response to sparman
Got the 18pt win but the game wasn't a blowout.
Next time, let's turn up the tempo. I think that's why these Dartmouth games are relatively close. In non-conf, the Big Green hung tough with quality opponents when the tempo was slow (St. Louis, Vermont, Marist).
We have the clearly superior starters - go fast and let Lee run wild with Martini and Peters bombing 3s in transition.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 05:04 PM - Post#361718
In response to sparman
No one on the NCAA Committee will ever think that a 15-point win over Dartmouth on your home court should be considered anything other than a ding to your record.
I don't think that matters - even if it should. Every conference has tons of close games between very strong and very weak opponents. As long as you win, it's fine.
In fact, NET margin-of-victory factor is capped at 10pts. So today's 18pt win is no different statistically than a 30pt win. Subjectively, beating a bad Furman team by 1 didn't hurt our reputation. It may have even helped because it was such an exciting comeback.
Anyway, I'm not really invested in at-large talk until it becomes necessary. Next season, I'll be more invested as I expect the league to be even stronger. Harvard's injuries prevented them from being an NET Top 80 team, IMO.
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sparman
PhD Student
Posts: 1352
Reg: 12-08-04
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 05:10 PM - Post#361719
In response to gokinsmen
In fact, NET margin-of-victory factor is capped at 10pts. So today's 18pt win is no different statistically than a 30pt win.
You have a point I was not considering.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 05:20 PM - Post#361720
In response to sparman
I just double-checked and since 2020, NET no longer considers scoring margin at all! It used to be capped at 10 but now it's no longer a factor.
So yeah, even a 1pt win and 30pt win are no different in the NCAA committee's own metric. KenPom doesn't differentiate between home/road/neutral, which I think is crazy, so I still prefer NET.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/a rticle/2...
No longer will the NET use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.
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mmp629
Junior
Posts: 259
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-15-24 05:22 PM - Post#361721
In response to gokinsmen
I was at Jadwin today. The game may not have been a blowout but it was never in doubt, either.
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
Posts: 2280
Age: 73
Loc: Sandy, Utah
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-15-24 06:32 PM - Post#361725
In response to mmp629
Good crowd. How was parking?
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Tiger81
Masters Student
Posts: 412
Loc: Montclair, NJ
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-15-24 07:02 PM - Post#361728
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
From the Trentonian’s game write-up:
On the injury front, it doesn’t sound like sophomore forward Deven Austin will play this season. Austin tore his ACL last February, and while he’s progressed to playing one-on-one at practice, he’s still not ready to return. “He’s got one more (doctor’s appointment) and at the end of the month that would be 10 months from surgery, but it’s unlikely,” Henderson said. Jackson Hinke (elbow) is expected back at some point, hopefully in about two weeks, Henderson said.
https://www.trentonian.com/2024/01/15/alloccos-c ar...
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Dartmouth College 01-15-24 07:07 PM - Post#361729
In response to Tiger81
Bummer. First Deven missed out on last season's Sweet 16 run and now this. It's easy to forget that Austin was ahead of Lee and Scott on the depth chart when he got injured.
On the bright side, having Austin back next season will be a huge boost. Takes some of the sting off of Allocco and Martini graduating.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2819
Reg: 11-23-04
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-15-24 07:20 PM - Post#361730
In response to gokinsmen
Much as I enjoy comfortable wins, I don’t believe blowouts prove anything. Give your bench as much time as possible without seriously endangering the outcome. It also allows the losing team to give time down the bench. Makes for a happier, more cohesive and successful team in the long run and shows some class.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4008
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-15-24 08:11 PM - Post#361731
In response to Tiger69
I occasionally agree with’ T’69, this is one of those times. I only wish we could some of those.
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mmp629
Junior
Posts: 259
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-15-24 08:47 PM - Post#361733
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
Parking was slow since the crowd was so big. I ended up on the roof!
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1892
Reg: 11-21-04
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01-15-24 08:55 PM - Post#361735
In response to mmp629
Crowds have been great (4,800+ for Harvard, 3,800+ today) but the University has to do a better job managing the parking. We’ve started getting to the game really early to beat the crowd. I’ve enjoyed these games where the Tigers have things under control most of the game but I have a feeling they have some close ones abead of them.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2819
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-15-24 09:01 PM - Post#361736
In response to TigerFan
Perhaps the U could steer people to the larger lot near the hockey rink with buses from there to Jadwin.
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Tiger69
Postdoc
Posts: 2819
Reg: 11-23-04
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01-15-24 09:09 PM - Post#361737
In response to Old Bear
Old Bear is one of my favorite posters as I came very close to being a fellow alum. I’ll buy the first round if ever, by chance, we meet.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4921
Reg: 02-04-06
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01-15-24 09:45 PM - Post#361740
In response to Tiger69
Better D was what was needed in this game, which would have caused a blowout. Dartmouth got a lot of good looks, and they hit from inside but not from outside. I don’t mind the subs getting PT here—what better time?—but I felt like the team was on cruise control with a 10-15 point margin for much of the game instead of really working to get stops with urgency.
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whitakk
Masters Student
Posts: 523
Age: 33
Reg: 11-11-14
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-16-24 08:16 PM - Post#361786
In response to gokinsmen
I just double-checked and since 2020, NET no longer considers scoring margin at all! It used to be capped at 10 but now it's no longer a factor.
So yeah, even a 1pt win and 30pt win are no different in the NCAA committee's own metric. KenPom doesn't differentiate between home/road/neutral, which I think is crazy, so I still prefer NET.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/a rticle/2...
No longer will the NET use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.
The NET still uses "adjusted net efficiency", which is essentially scoring margin (just on a per-possession basis and factoring strength of opponent). I believe there's no cap on this in a given game.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 681
Age: 27
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-16-24 08:58 PM - Post#361787
In response to whitakk
Which means that before they took MOV out, they basically double-counted it. It was smart to take a step closer to doing what all the top advanced-statheads do imo.
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gokinsmen
Postdoc
Posts: 3683
Reg: 02-06-10
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Re: Dartmouth College 01-16-24 11:12 PM - Post#361789
In response to whitakk
The NET still uses "adjusted net efficiency", which is essentially scoring margin (just on a per-possession basis and factoring strength of opponent). I believe there's no cap on this in a given game.
Very true, but that's a cumulative metric across all games. In which case, a single game won't make much of a difference.
Which means that before they took MOV out, they basically double-counted it. It was smart to take a step closer to doing what all the top advanced-statheads do imo.
Good point. That's probably a big reason why they took it out after consulting with their Google analytics people.
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