palestra38
Professor
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03-12-24 12:56 PM - Post#365049
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/ivy-league-tou...
Princeton +100
Yale +200
Cornell +350
Brown +2000
Man, laying a 20-spot on Brown is tempting, although I do think Princeton will win.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Re: Fan Duel ILT odds
03-12-24 01:08 PM - Post#365050
In response to palestra38
I think Yale and Cornell have some value. Princeton with implicit 50% odds to win the whole thing seems slightly high to me - a championship game neutral site rematch with either Yale or Cornell strikes me as itself a roughly 50/50 game, and I think Brown has a puncher's chance to win the opener.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
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03-12-24 01:16 PM - Post#365052
In response to iogyhufi
Cornell strikes me as the best value.
Call the Yale game a coin flip, and
figure Cornell' depth makes them the
best back-to-back team if they can win Saturday.
Hoping the Tigers can continue to gut it out.
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james
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03-12-24 01:44 PM - Post#365054
In response to LocalTiger
i am LONG brown for 2 weeks in a row. hope i dont overstay my welcome but I cldnt resist the skew. like last week.
my thesis is playing a sleepy nooner will prepare them for 11am. big adv. ha
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james
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03-12-24 01:47 PM - Post#365055
In response to james
these teams are all so even on a neutral floor imo.
but i do think princeton in a shooters gym is a natural favorite. but thats fully captured.
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Streamers
Professor
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03-13-24 01:27 PM - Post#365093
In response to LocalTiger
Cornell strikes me as the best value.
Call the Yale game a coin flip, and
figure Cornell' depth makes them the
best back-to-back team if they can win Saturday.
Hoping the Tigers can continue to gut it out.
At these odds, the smart play knowing what we know is to take the "field" and bet everyone but PU.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32835
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-16-24 02:22 PM - Post#365416
In response to Streamers
If you had Brown at 20-1, you're licking your chops right now.
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james
Masters Student
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03-16-24 02:28 PM - Post#365417
In response to palestra38
Thanks!
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james
Masters Student
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03-16-24 02:36 PM - Post#365419
In response to james
I leaned hard on the Princeton line at 10+
Smaller on brown weekend double which I regret
The hedge fund biz is tough in a rising tide.
Take it where Vegas hands you the odds
if brown wins the $s go to the bulldog collective which will launch soon
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SRP
Postdoc
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03-16-24 05:00 PM - Post#365445
In response to james
So far, I think 18 #1 seeds have fallen around the country. Which is inconsequential for the SEC and Big Ten, but a real bummer for the one-bid champions. At least the Ivy still has two teams alive that might win a game in the NCAA tournament.
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Streamers
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03-17-24 08:22 AM - Post#365506
In response to palestra38
If you had Brown at 20-1, you're licking your chops right now.
Draft kings did not book the team odds, so I had to settle for betting Brown and the over and then taking PU in game when I got them plus 13. Lost some of that on Cornell though.
Brown is plus 8 plus 275 today. I’ll taste that but I like the over better at 135.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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03-17-24 08:32 AM - Post#365507
In response to SRP
Brown is playing very well but they would be fortunate to escape a 16 seed.
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Streamers
Professor
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03-17-24 09:25 AM - Post#365509
In response to palestra38
Or an all expense paid trip to Dayton. I doubt they win outright today. Yale will not let them tear it up inside like PU did. The way they are shooting and moving the ball offensively, I can see them covering the 8 though.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-17-24 02:10 PM - Post#365543
In response to Streamers
I lost $100k today of upside.
But it feels good. Now I am going to get drunk at the Cherokee casino and catch a trout later
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1LotteryPick1969
Postdoc
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03-17-24 03:20 PM - Post#365566
In response to james
And for the collective.........?
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-17-24 04:11 PM - Post#365573
In response to 1LotteryPick1969
who builds this these things in the middle of nowhere NC anyway? Bad bad influence in march
There is some momentum on that front but the big dogs will be getting far less from little me w my short book and this call option fail. Dern
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james
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03-18-24 02:52 PM - Post#365718
In response to james
The shoes are starting to drop....sad to see Perkins go. Despite the fact that he went to Landon...Good player and seemingly good kid.
I hope wolf takes it to Broome but not much upside left as Yale deals w auburn and the portal season heats up.
What a shame
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
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Age: 27
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Fan Duel ILT odds
03-18-24 03:22 PM - Post#365723
In response to james
That's one view. Other possible interpretations:
1) This is a Penn-specific problem, either for internal reasons or because Penn has been poor lately.
2) This is a bad-team specific problem, and players on top Ivy teams are more likely to stay.
(Sorry Penn folks, I don't mean for you to catch strays here, but, well...)
I know for a fact that Kino Lilly had tons of NIL suitors this past offseason. He chose to stay at Brown. I don't think we need to be quite so quick to put on the sackcloth and ashes here.
Edited by iogyhufi on 03-18-24 03:23 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32835
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Fan Duel ILT odds
03-18-24 03:32 PM - Post#365730
In response to iogyhufi
No need to apologize---you're right.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
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03-18-24 05:07 PM - Post#365750
In response to palestra38
I do think it is nuanced.
But think it's more about the straight quid offers.
The tampering I can confirm is nauseating and widespread but inquiries and "strong butt" offers are admittedly not the same thing.
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palestra38
Professor
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Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-24 08:14 PM - Post#365787
In response to james
We'll see, but I see Penn as having a total breakdown in confidence in the coach. It's sad, but something has to be done.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-18-24 09:09 PM - Post#365798
In response to palestra38
read the ivyhoopsonline.com just posted. i cant tell if even knowing what i do know that should make me feel better abt yale and wolf, etc. or worse.
but the fact that he rips this website and appears to be locked out from commenting is kind of hilarious.
but he seems to be a rational penn alum and sadly our views collate reasonably well. this is what the disruption catalyst looks and feels like.
and this league and its alumni and supporter base in basketball is ill-prepared for the reality.
tyler perkins committed to steve donahue at penn. it changed a little. dingle left kind of late. tough year for a myriad of reasons.
he was underrecruited out of hs despite playing in the competitive IAC in the DMV.
he bails. its not good for anyone who cares abt the future of this conference
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james
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03-18-24 09:12 PM - Post#365799
In response to james
and the only reason i would feel better is its the 2nd hard line (dire) view expressed in a form of media on the topic in 2 weeks.
upon further review its too early be a contrarian and especially for contrarian sake. will stick to my gut and the bad taste in my mouth when assessing the implications
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32835
Reg: 11-21-04
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03-18-24 09:13 PM - Post#365800
In response to james
Luckily, Jura 12 year has allowed me to accept the reality of Penn's collapse without the kind of stress that would have overwhelmed me as a younger man.
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-18-24 09:22 PM - Post#365803
In response to palestra38
for some reason having older kids who dont care abt my affiliations makes me feel it viscerally now.
i am not ready for d3 esp given the athletes we have now.
would be such a devastating cliff. and i am referring to yale and the league
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-18-24 09:41 PM - Post#365809
In response to james
the most positive angle i just posited on x.
i want repeat it verbatim. but one should keep in mind that the only reason ivies have so many d1 sports is the massive and committed alumni base of said sports. this is why at yale when there are complaints as to the # of recruited athletes corrupting an applicant pool...the administration is silent.
because the ex athletes (this has been studied) are the most valuable alumni cohort in terms of giving back to the school at large. its why the programs are also endowed.
yale lacross is ahead of the curve bc of one massive donor. there are other programs at other schools i am told that are as well and will play this game if thats what it takes.
but for some reason basketball is not high on the pecking order. with too much free time (which i know is obvious) i have tried to push it but the wealthiest ex player i know who is still a rabid fan didnt know what NIL was one year ago.
this will take time. the question is do we have it
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james
Masters Student
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Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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03-18-24 09:55 PM - Post#365812
In response to james
i just saw the luke kolaja news.
its apparent that i am the only loud voice on this site from a heretofore uneffected team as it relates to NIL...that makes sense psychologically i suppose.
it's your neighbors problem until its yours. but decades in the investment business and recent involvement in grassroots basketball through my kids and their teammates' collective vantage points have educated me and its why i have been waving the warning flag for months and months.
luke kolaja was by all accounts a nice kid and a good teammate until he left the team earlier this year.
but he isnt even a datapoint in this assessment for me bc he was a senior and had no minutes of consequence in his career.
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