iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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01-25-25 09:31 AM - Post#376826
Yale hosts Harvard in front of what should be a raucous home crowd. I think the key for Harvard is to turn this game into a rock fight. Get stops, be physical, and force turnovers. That's harder to enforce on the road, though.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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Re: Harvard
01-25-25 08:17 PM - Post#376844
In response to iogyhufi
Harvard just had nothing for Yale this whole game. The first half, John made every shot he took. The second, Yale simply couldn't be denied on the boards. Yale's got play in the frontcourt that no other Ivy can really challenge, which is incredible.
Side note: it's wild to me that from 2017-2020, Yale never beat Harvard in the regular season, but now the Bulldogs are on a 7-game winning streak. I think I heard Justin Gallanty say that this current team has never lost to Harvard. Man, how Tommy has fallen since the heights of the class of 2020.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 12:08 PM - Post#376876
In response to iogyhufi
just watched the game. hard to get much from it given harvard threw the white flag from the tip.
my main takeaway is yale's 3 freshmen are future stars at this level.
celiscar made an insane catch on a baseline out of bounds play then proceeded to drive and make an alley oop pass to aletan that showed he's a freak.
fox is just a smooth big guard with excellent athleticism and shooting mechanics.
brathwaite dunked on some dudes head on a backdoor pass.
i dont know who sticks around or how long but if they stay...this will be quite a core should they stay.
and to think they were rated 4th by the board. lol
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6573
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-26-25 01:43 PM - Post#376884
In response to james
This made me run some numbers on the freshman class. Using win shares to measure performance, Dartmouth has the best class both total and on a per 40 minutes basis. Yale is second in total win shares. However, they are actually 6th in win shares per 40 minutes (ahead of Harvard and Penn). One interesting note is that Harvard gets the most minutes out of freshman, yet they trail Dartmouth, Yale, and Princeton in total statistical output from their freshmen.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 02:18 PM - Post#376885
In response to SomeGuy
lol.
now we are comparing apples and oranges namely win share contributions bt teams in vastly different upper class talent tiers.
my advice is dump the faux analysis and own up.
or listen to those with better access to info next time and actually watch the kids play bf dying on that hil.
actually i suppose you still arent trusting the eye test.
i screen shotted. will hit you back again soon. it wont die even if riley fox is playing in the big east or something.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 02:31 PM - Post#376887
In response to james
in your honor i just ran all my financial projections for mid cap euro businesses using 10 year base rates for us revenue and margin trends.
i cant believe my findings.
the stock market is so inefficient and so dumb. these numbers dont lie. i will make billions of $s
lol.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 02:42 PM - Post#376889
In response to james
i was reflecting why jones is going so deep game in game out on his bench.
it is obvious how talented his young guys are to anyone who watches.
but i dont think that's the only explanation as he has an enormous bias against playing youth all else equal.
but i found his quote postgame i think it was dartmouth or maybe brown when he seemed upset he didnt play more...i think he sees the changes and knows turn over and defection is a risk.
there are no guarantees when you have young talent that you can keep it. so he is trying to strike an appropriate balance in hopes of developing and retaining.
this is new for him but he is trying to adapt in his own way to the new reality.
i do know he is giddy over this freshmen class but undoubtedly concerned at the same time.
next years class is also strong. must experiment as one's roster likely gets younger and guys leave
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6573
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-26-25 02:57 PM - Post#376890
In response to james
Well, I think you’re taking a Yale-centric view of the classes. You admitted that before, when your analysis was basically that you had seen Yale’s kids and would only analyze kids you have seen. I don’t have nearly as much insight into Yale’s kids as you do, but I am probably the only fool around here who tends to watch all of the league’s games. So I suspect I have a better grasp of the other 7 rosters than you do. My peculiar brand of mental illness means that I can name all of next year’s incoming recruits for all 8 teams. Yes, Yale should have another good class.
Agreed that Jones traditionally doesn’t play freshmen much, and seems to be doing more this year (particularly with Celiscar). As you posit, that is probably a little bit of a testament to the talent in the class, and a little bit of a recognition of the new reality. Of course, playing time cuts both ways. Maybe you play them more so they won’t leave (Princeton lost a pretty good freshman last year who may not have played enough). Then again, maybe Mack and Perkins would still be around if they didn’t play so much.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 03:16 PM - Post#376891
In response to SomeGuy
well some of this is true but some is not.
my historical base rate as noted initially in my evaluation was comparing yale's incoming talent to yale's historical incoming talent over the last 5-10 years.
given yale has been essentially at the top of this league over this period it is all you need to know to properly assess where things sit recruiting wise.
the real reason i considered it so thoughtfully was bc my public thesis was that the IL is doomed in this era and you shld see this show up in a micro way...yale's class.
it hasnt and wont next year either. these kids are v talented by any standard applied.
but i think my thesis will show up in turnover. no one knows anything for certain but james jones seemed to also be concerned.
he is urinated when a freshman doesnt play in a game and questions himself publicly. this is new.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 03:20 PM - Post#376892
In response to james
i do agree with your last point.
and this informs my overall thesis that the IL is in trouble over time.
you are darned if you do or you dont. or you could be.
at the very least you just get younger and your larger competition gets older. this is medium term bad and unsustainable if measured against a midmajor d1 expectation.
i think celiscar fox and brathwaite are transfer candidates in t-2 yrs.
celiscar is good enough right now.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 03:30 PM - Post#376893
In response to james
also on recruited i have seen all of yale's incoming class live in at least one travel game.
some numerous times like daniel ogunyemi who we have played against 2x this school year.
they vary in ceiling but this is another terrific recruiting class by yale therefore the IL standard.
if i base it on ceiling and yale talent base rates...this would suggest we are trending up not down.
but this also makes sense given the power 4 dont care abt the kids in the say 175-500 range anymore in favor of transfers.
and still doesnt mean turnover wont negate even an improvement in talent acquisition if it leaves early and the other ncaa teams are older pros
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6573
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-26-25 03:31 PM - Post#376894
In response to james
Yale and Princeton may have the juice to keep recruiting well (success leads to more success). I think that the portal may result in higher quality freshmen being available to the league — we just may not be able to keep them when they can transfer a year or two later. So recruiting classes may get better. But the league may struggle more overall. We’ll see. League seems to be hanging in there so far, even with all the transfers. For now, Poulakidas, Mbeng, Pierce, and Lee have stuck around when they could have bolted. But the landscape changed in the middle of their college years. Incoming freshmen may come on with different expectations and goals about where they might end up (and so may be more likely to transfer).
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6573
Reg: 11-22-04
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01-26-25 03:37 PM - Post#376895
In response to james
Will it upset you if I say that I think Harvard and Princeton might have slightly better classes or next year? Very close though — all 3 have solid deep classes. I think Harrington is probably the top incoming recruit for next year. After HPY, there is a big drop off.
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 03:43 PM - Post#376897
In response to james
lastly... big man hands on a phone make this difficult without multiple posts.
but i find it fascinating as a business case writ large if frustrating as an IL hoops alum and fan.
the recruiting analysts all of whom (that matter) i know personally just dont care anymore abt kids who arent consensus blue chip. i am repeating myself but its logical why.. like 1200 kids transfer annually. thats where the money and eyeballs are.
if samson aletan committed to UT when offered he shoots up to 110 or whatever. if not who cares and we rank him 220.
now its more extreme...they look for the next lebron and they rank transfers. and thats the value add.
those are the qs they ask me even. what do yoi think about this kid? you coached him or he played woth your son but went to wofford.
now everyone is asking abt him as a transfer bLah blah
dont trust their rankings for the IL! haha
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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01-26-25 03:52 PM - Post#376898
In response to SomeGuy
haha no. you cld be right. development curves and class attrition are variables i cant model out or project in my head.
frankly i hope you are right on all levels bc this actually might mean the IL can offset attrition (as we are aligned here.) and be a somewhat exciting product to watch for those of us who care.
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Ever True
Junior
Posts: 265
Age: 29
Reg: 02-02-15
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01-27-25 03:59 PM - Post#376941
In response to SomeGuy
FWIW, Harrington is now committed to USC.
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SRP
Postdoc
Posts: 4966
Reg: 02-04-06
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01-28-25 12:26 AM - Post#376954
In response to Ever True
It's kind of funny how the IL used to be "bad" because it only recruited four-year players and not one-and-done types out of HS, and now most of the power schools would rather have four- and fifth-year guys with slim to no chances of making it to the NBA. There are obvious exceptions, such as Cooper Flagg, but I don't think too many of, say, Tennessee's guys are sure things to make the NBA (although they will get a look and some might develop into that). But Rutgers getting Harper and Bailey in this year shows that the landscape is changing.
Stern and Silver did what they could to screw college basketball, and now they are paying the price as the number of pre-sold (by college) American stars coming into the league has dwindled to almost nothing.
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