iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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01-26-25 03:39 PM - Post#376896
With four games in the books, I thought it'd be a good chance to look at Luke Benz's ILT odds so far (remember to press the Ivy League tab at the menu at the top).
Some things of note:
Yale has an 84% chance to win the 1-seed. I know how the numbers get here, but I don't believe it myself. There's too much talent in the league and Yale has too many road games left for me to feel that confident.
Every team in the league is still very much alive - Dartmouth(!) has the inside track at the 4-seed for now at 33%, but Brown is right on their heels at 27%, and the worst odds belong to Harvard, who still has a 12% chance. Brown's win in Ithaca could be a real tiebreaker coup for the Bears, but the trip to Hanover in the second-to-last game of the year could prove decisive.
Penn and the suddenly incandescent Sam Brown have revived their season, and the only reason their odds are so low is that their noncon performance makes the model doubt how good they really are. I believe in Steve D, though, and Penn has a huge home weekend upcoming that could really make their candidacy.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 22850
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: MBB Race to Providence
01-26-25 08:13 PM - Post#376905
In response to iogyhufi
I personally think this may end up being the high point of the Penn season, but we shall soon see.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 34561
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: MBB Race to Providence
01-26-25 08:21 PM - Post#376906
In response to penn nation
I think we were correct about how weak Penn's lineup is against middle of the road Division 1 competition. We may have underestimated how weak our league now is in comparison with middle of the road Division 1 competition.
We will see.
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Old Bear
Postdoc
Posts: 4067
Reg: 11-23-04
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 01-26-25 08:21 PM - Post#376907
In response to penn nation
It looks like Yale, Princeton and Cornell have the early edge. Having seen Harvard and Dartmouth, but not Penn or Columbia, I am still bullish on Brown, if they can stay healthy, despite the league season start (again).
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james
Masters Student
Posts: 920
Age: 49
Reg: 03-18-19
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Re: MBB Race to Providence
01-28-25 08:44 PM - Post#376975
In response to iogyhufi
agree with iggy here.
until you hit the road you just dont know much.
this will be a tough stretch for the bulldogs. we will see
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mbaprof
Masters Student
Posts: 404
Age: 67
Reg: 12-24-11
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02-01-25 10:21 AM - Post#377072
In response to james
Ill stick with my preseason pick Brown after seeing their talent and grit last night
Cant see them not making their home tournament where they will be very dangerous
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 34561
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-25 10:25 AM - Post#377073
In response to mbaprof
That Brown team has amazing talent. They don't play defense most of the time, but are capable of doing so as they showed in the last 5 minutes of yesterday's game. I can't believe the talent differential out there yesterday.
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weinhauers_ghost
Postdoc
Posts: 2221
Age: 65
Loc: New York City
Reg: 12-14-09
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02-01-25 03:08 PM - Post#377089
In response to palestra38
I can't believe the talent differential out there yesterday.
I can. What I can't figure out is how Penn has managed to get two conference wins so far.
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-09-25 10:51 AM - Post#377424
In response to weinhauers_ghost
Halfway through, here are the ILT odds:
Yale, Cornell, and Princeton have >99% odds to qualify for the ILT (N.B. Yale is listed at 100%, but they haven't mathematically clinched yet. Yale's magic number of wins + Brown losses is 3).
Dartmouth has a 76% chance to make the ILT(!) What a start to the season for Dartmouth.
Brown (16%) and Harvard (7%) still have a puncher's chance, while Penn and Columbia each have very little chance but are still alive.
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LocalTiger
Masters Student
Posts: 873
Age: 59
Reg: 11-15-17
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02-09-25 12:19 PM - Post#377432
In response to iogyhufi
I think you mentioned this before, but
Townsend's productivity has been the
big difference-maker for them. He is
having an Alll-Ivy season.
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TigerFan
PhD Student
Posts: 1915
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-09-25 12:19 PM - Post#377433
In response to iogyhufi
If the projections linked to your post are based on the schedule shown below those, this may have a fatal flaw.
Dartmouth plays four at home and three away, not five and two--they still have to play at Princeton and don't get a second home game against the Tigers.
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