Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2302
Reg: 02-14-06
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02-04-25 10:34 PM - Post#377221
Is 0-6 Columba Already Mathematically Eliminated From Playing in the Ivy League Tournament?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-05-25 12:28 PM - Post#377248
In response to Columbia 37P6
No, but it doesn't look good. Luke Benz's site projects that 7 wins will do the job most of the time, and 6 wins will do it some of the time. Columbia has a mathematical opportunity to get to 7 wins. But it would require them to win two of @Yale/@Cornell/home vs Princeton. Not impossible, but difficult.
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Columbia 37P6
Postdoc
Posts: 2302
Reg: 02-14-06
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02-05-25 01:55 PM - Post#377255
In response to iogyhufi
Thank you! I agree with your analysis. How do you get to the Luke Benz site you mentioned?
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iogyhufi
Masters Student
Posts: 726
Age: 28
Reg: 10-10-17
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02-05-25 02:04 PM - Post#377256
In response to Columbia 37P6
Ah! Sorry about that - I meant to post the link, but apparently I forgot. Just navigate to the "Ivy League" tab at the top - he's got lots of interesting data there.
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PeteD
Masters Student
Posts: 621
Loc: California
Reg: 03-13-07
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02-08-25 09:59 PM - Post#377410
In response to iogyhufi
After today's win vs Brown, these are the probabilities based on ESPN's Matchup Predictor:
8-6... about 1 in 2,029
7-7... 1.0%
6-8... 6.4%
5-9... 19.8%
4-10 or worse... 72.8%
Based on Luke Benz's win probabilities for Columbia, it's even more remote:
8-6... 1 in 7,425
7-7... 0.4% (1 in 237)
6-8... 3.9%
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