dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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02-06-05 02:29 AM - Post#3444
. . .the only team left that can beat Penn without help (I won't say "controls their own destiny," because we all know that's an oxymoron.  ) is Cornell. And even they can only tie without assistance.
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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YaleEli
goober
Posts: 62
Loc: Greenwich, CT
Reg: 12-07-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-07-05 06:23 PM - Post#3445
In response to dperry
You are certainly "counting your chickens before they hatch. . ." I hope the Penn players read your post and have the same overconfidence for the rest of the Ivy season.
All it really takes is a "lost" weekend similar to Princeton's recent travails to make this a horse race. I certainly expect Penn to drop at least a game (maybe two) on the Y/B trip and a game to Princeton at Jadwin.
Who knows? Maybe Penn will experience another swoon like its five-game losing streak during mid-Dec. through early Jan. when most of the Penn fans wanted to slit their wrist. How about that splash of reality!
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SFlaQuaker
Postdoc
Posts: 2427
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-07-05 07:00 PM - Post#3446
In response to YaleEli
Have you actually seen Penn play recently, or is this based on nothing? I'd be shocked if this team loses more than 2 games, and I think it's even more likely that they win out. We have too many weapons and we're playing defense too well.
I'm not saying you shouldn't keep your hopes up; I know I certainly would in your shoes. However, to "certainly expect" that Penn loses 2 or 3 of the games at Y/B/P seems like a pretty big stretch unless you have some actual evidence to give this hope.
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Red n Blue
Masters Student
Posts: 898
Loc: South Jersey
Reg: 11-29-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-07-05 08:18 PM - Post#3447
In response to SFlaQuaker
Yale Eli-- I don't have the numbers but in the Penn-Princeton series the team which wins the first game typically wins the second as well. They split from time to time but more often than not, one team or the other sweeps the series. So I'm not sure where your apparent certainty of Penn losing at Jadwin comes from.
I could easily see Penn perhaps losing one game on the Yale/Brown weekend. That's traditionally a pretty tough weekend. But it is unusual (notwithstanding last year) for Penn to come away with NO wins on that weekend. Again-- I don't have the stats on this one. And yeah-- weird things can happen from time to time. I saw Penn lost to a horrible Columbia team in the Palestra a couple of years ago and still win the league title.
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Howard Gensler
Postdoc
Posts: 4141
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-08-05 01:09 AM - Post#3448
In response to YaleEli
You want a splash of reality, try this:
During Penn's 5-game losing streak (four of which were on the road), when they were admittedly playing horribly and gave away three games and played two other games close, their defense was solid in all of the games. But more important was the quality of the opposition.
Penn's five losses in that stretch came to RPI teams presently ranked 19, 71, 91, 98 and 127. Other than Princeton at 86, the teams remaining on Penn's schedule are ranked 159, 186, 194, 234, 252 and 290 (throw in a +/- 20% margin of error if you'd like). In games against teams ranked below 101, Penn is 8-1 this season.
Of course anything is possible and an injury or a crazy game could change stuff. A pronounced shooting slump could make for a close game that could go against Penn. But excluding the game tomorrow night simply because it's Princeton and not because they're playing like Princeton, Penn should win its four remaining home games. So if they split with Princeton, split at Brown/Yale and split at Cornell/Columbia (and any of those losses would be upsets), Brown would still have to go 9-1 in its remaining ten games and Cornell would have to win every game but at Penn - just to tie.
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dperry
Postdoc
Posts: 2214
Loc: Houston, TX
Reg: 11-24-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-08-05 04:12 AM - Post#3449
In response to YaleEli
Quote:
You are certainly "counting your chickens before they hatch. . ." I hope the Penn players read your post and have the same overconfidence for the rest of the Ivy season.
I'm counting nothing. After all, Penn was in a very similar situation three years ago (and with fewer games to make up the difference, too.) I'm still quite nervous about tomorrow's game, for instance. And I'll still be at least slightly surprised if we go undefeated this year.
However, that's the whole point: we don't need to be undefeated anymore. In fact, we can drop two games and still have as good a chance as anyone. Let's put it differently; the Ivies have had 8 teams and 14 games for 51 seasons now. In those 51 seasons, there have been only 17 years in which the champion has had three or more losses. So right now, no one except Cornell and Brown has better than a 1 in 3 chance of beating out Penn right now--and that doesn't take the fact that Penn is ahead into consideration. Sure thing? No. Preferable situation? Damn skippy!
David Perry
Penn '92
"Hail, Alma Mater/Thy sons cheer thee now
To thee, Pennsylvania/All rivals must bow!!!" |
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-08-05 01:20 PM - Post#3450
In response to Red n Blue
I believe the Penn/Princeton series has ended in a regular season sweep in 12 of the last 14 seasons ('99 and '04 being the exceptions). And in both of those seasons, the road team won both games. So if Princeton is going to beat us at Jadwin, they'll probably beat us tonight too. This isn't a series where the homecourt means a whole lot, for whatever reason. One other note -- in '96 Penn swept Princeton during the regular season but lost the playoff game in OT up at Lehigh.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21212
Reg: 12-02-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-08-05 02:45 PM - Post#3451
In response to dperry
If Penn wins tonight, PU could be in for a season of historic proportions.
I see only 1 season ('55-'56) where PU finished in the lower half of the Ivies, not counting multiple ties with other squads for 4th place. Even then, its Ivy record was 7-7; PU has NEVER finished under .500 in Ivy play.
Quote:
Quote:
You are certainly "counting your chickens before they hatch. . ." I hope the Penn players read your post and have the same overconfidence for the rest of the Ivy season.
I'm counting nothing. After all, Penn was in a very similar situation three years ago (and with fewer games to make up the difference, too.) I'm still quite nervous about tomorrow's game, for instance. And I'll still be at least slightly surprised if we go undefeated this year.
However, that's the whole point: we don't need to be undefeated anymore. In fact, we can drop two games and still have as good a chance as anyone. Let's put it differently; the Ivies have had 8 teams and 14 games for 51 seasons now. In those 51 seasons, there have been only 17 years in which the champion has had three or more losses. So right now, no one except Cornell and Brown has better than a 1 in 3 chance of beating out Penn right now--and that doesn't take the fact that Penn is ahead into consideration. Sure thing? No. Preferable situation? Damn skippy!
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YaleEli
goober
Posts: 62
Loc: Greenwich, CT
Reg: 12-07-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-12-05 05:15 AM - Post#3452
In response to penn nation
From an historical perspective, the 2001-2002 season certainly illustrates the idea that you have to play the 14 game season before a winner is truly decided. Who on the Penn side would have predicted a comeback to win the Ivy title after losing three games that season?
I will admit that Penn has played extremely well during Ivy play to date. However, I speak from experience that all it takes is an injury to a frontline player or close loss to erase all of that confidence that is oozing from Philly.
Who knows? Penn spoiled the Bulldogs' chances to go to its first Ivy season in four decades. No one predicted the Boston Red Sox coming back from a 3-0 deficit to the Yankees to win the World Series.
That win is the new standard for every underdog who was told he/she could not overcome tremendous odds. I will go on record to predict that Penn will not win the Ivies this year. They have played the easiest part of their Ivy schedule already. Things will get interesting. . . .
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32836
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-12-05 02:53 PM - Post#3453
In response to YaleEli
Mark this man's post---a guarantee that Penn will not win. Let me ask---who will win?
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Warrior
newbie
Posts: 49
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: To Put Recent Events into Perspective. . .
02-12-05 03:28 PM - Post#3454
In response to YaleEli
Quote:
I will go on record to predict that Penn will not win the Ivies this year. They have played the easiest part of their Ivy schedule already. Things will get interesting. . . .
Before I comment, quick point of clarification... The "difficult" part of their grueling Ivy schedule, you're talking about playing the same group of 200-range RPI teams that Penn has torn apart during the "cake walk" portion of their schedule?
Maybe at Yale you distinguish between the "easy" and "difficult" part of the schedule...
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