SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-01-24 12:11 PM - Post#362502
In response to mshimmy
Well, I’ve always gravitated to the underdog, so I’ve spent much of my life rooting for teams in seemingly futile situations. So the transition over the last 17 years may have been easier for me than some fans. Plus I like the general minutia of “which 1-3 team will back into the 4th spot in the Ivy tournament.” I find playing out the scenarios interesting. Maybe it just takes my mind off the frustration.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-01-24 12:25 PM - Post#362503
In response to palestra38
Regardless of Penn’s weaknesses, somebody has to get the fourth spot, and the other contenders have their own issues. If everyone wins every game they are favored to win the rest of the way, Harvard gets to 6 wins, Penn and Columbia 5, brown 3. So it may not take the type of push it has taken in the past — there are even reasonable scenarios where a 5 win team gets the last spot. Penn will have a chance if they can simply win the games they should win.
One of those games is at brown, so of course it is best not to get swept. But I think the only scenario that dooms Penn is getting swept this weekend while Harvard sweeps Columbia and Cornell. That would be a killer.
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palestra38
Professor
Posts: 32835
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
02-01-24 12:37 PM - Post#362504
In response to SomeGuy
I know it would not be mathematical elimination if Penn is swept this weekend. But I do not think we have the upperclass leadership to rebound. I think if we are swept, it will destroy whatever self-confidence exists in the team. What bothers me about the Penn teams under Donahue ever since the Foreman-Woods team is that they lack the competitive killer instinct. When the game is close, other teams just seem to want it more. And this team is in the situation where it will need to win the close games to have a chance. I just don't see it happening.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-01-24 01:46 PM - Post#362506
In response to palestra38
But the question is — who has that killer instinct and/or experience? You’ve got a bunch of similarly inexperienced teams with similar struggles. Somebody has to get that fourth spot. Even if we get swept, we’re likely to be a game out with 9 to play.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-01-24 02:35 PM - Post#362507
In response to SomeGuy
The more important question for me is... who cares if we sneak into 4th place? Congrats, we would be in the top 50%?
I suppose this is the legacy of Ivy Madness, where if your program is mediocre, you can hope to get to 4th place and be fodder thrown to one of the top programs in the tournament.
Woo hoo.
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Mike Porter
Postdoc
Posts: 3618
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
Reg: 11-21-04
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Re: Next 4
02-01-24 02:39 PM - Post#362508
In response to mshimmy
You guys are maniacs for still caring about this. Hell, I still read this board. My son is 7 and I hope to bring him to a meaningful Penn basketball game in my lifetime, but I'd bet against it.
Good to hear from you and in a similar boat, but with my soon to be 6 year old daughter.
Sadly, the ability for me to care is greatly diminished, but I care enough to hope for change.
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Penndemonium
PhD Student
Posts: 1900
Reg: 11-29-04
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02-01-24 03:55 PM - Post#362511
In response to Mike Porter
I like Penn underdog teams too. In the Miller years, I found the team brutal to watch because of the dysfunction on the team. Unfortunately, it got worse with Allen - with players stealing computers, Italy trips with no games, and more. At least the recent underdog teams feel very deserving of loyalty. I used to work out a lot around Hutch and the gym, and I'd often walk by the Palestra and watch practices and players working on their game on their own. That is why I can root for bad or mediocre teams. There are a lot of good kids in the program. This team actually seems to be a very good cast. I like the way they play - they don't give up in games. They never seem to get down on each other. The bench seems to be very passionate for their team, in spite of limited playing time for many. Most players seem to play close to their expected capabilities.
Losing Slajchert for the beginning of the Ivy season obviously has been a killer. We could argue about where we would be with him, but my personal view is that we would be feeling more confident of the 4th spot if he had been able to play. Slajchert was the one player I had confidence in to be a difference maker for our team each game. He was playing very well. His approach is diverse enough to disrupt the league's knowledge of our team and playbook. Our other players don't really have that. Some are effective, but they are fairly predictable.
Whether playing for 4th is good enough for Penn is a separate issue that I'm not occupying my mind with. A middling team has actually given me a healthier attitude about being a fan. I'm interested but not too invested. Getting too upset about any college basketball team is an unhealthy mindspace for any grown adult to be in. Being proud that our student athletes seem like great kids and are doing their best, on the other hand, feels pretty good.
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rbg
Postdoc
Posts: 3058
Reg: 10-20-14
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02-01-24 05:28 PM - Post#362514
In response to Penndemonium
I feel a lot of apathy towards the program these days. I watch my fair share of Ivy hoops, but I haven't watched many Penn games - something I really didn't expect to happen.
It was frustrating but fun to see the team sneak into the Ivy Tournament the first few times, but the first-round exits have just been more & more frustrating.
2018 was great, but things might have played out different if Seth Towns didn't get injured in the second half.
Even if Clark didn't get injured, it was hard for me to see this group making it into the top 3. As it is, they could find their way into another 4 seed, but it is difficult to think they could get into the final or win the weekend.
I don't think any of the other non-Top 3 can win the Ivy Tournament, but at least they would be able to point to positive growth in the program by simply being there.
I think SD has done a commendable job moving beyond the catastrophic Miller & Allen years, but things really need to change. Whether the program is stuck in neutral or in a slow decline, they are losing long-time season ticket holders and fans.
Getting rid of Jerome was not a hard decision for Grace C. to make, given the poor record and behavior of a number of the players. Changing from a much better coach and mentor may be a more difficult decision, but Alanna S. has got to make that call. Sure, her hire might miss, but how many more years of this can everyone tolerate.
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UPIA1968
PhD Student
Posts: 1121
Loc: Cornwall, PA
Reg: 11-20-06
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02-01-24 05:55 PM - Post#362521
In response to 10Q
I suppose you can write off this year as bad luck what with injuries to Martz, Clark and the loss of Jordan.
What worries me is this.
In Steve's tenure the Ivy champ has averaged a rating of 80, with a range of 47 to 125. Penn has averaged 165, twice the standard. It won only when its best rating happened to occur in the weakest year for other contenders. And that championship was at home, by one bucket, and with Harvard's star in the bench at crunch time.
Put differently, in 8 years of recruiting, Steve has brought in just 10 good, all round players, assuming that Brown and Perkins are legit. That includes the four players he got the first year. So six since, including three years with none.
As my son said many years ago. The Ivies have two to three good teams and five or six dwarfs. Penn is a dwarf now. (And has been for the 17 years since the last of Franny's stars left.)
Given the paucity of the current roster, only remarkable recruiting the next two years will restore the program. What is the chance of that?
Note, I don't give a #### about competing with division one. I just want to be a contender in the Ivies. Penn is clearly not, and has poor prospects of becoming one.
So, for the remainder this year my attention will be on only Brown, Perkins, and Polonowski. We are reduced to hoping for the future, the distant future.
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Quakers03
Professor
Posts: 12533
Reg: 12-07-04
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02-01-24 06:33 PM - Post#362528
In response to UPIA1968
Worse, I don’t see players getting remarkably better. Just look at Princeton. Instead we get glimpses from guys like Thrower and Holland and are just left wanting more. I know Alana goes back many years with Steve. Does anyone think she’d actually make a move? How many of us need to bail before nothing is left? Apathy is the worst possible outcome and we’re well down that path.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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02-01-24 10:25 PM - Post#362536
In response to Penndemonium
I know Spinoso’s play has been a topic this year. I don’t want to put too much pressure on one guy, but without Clark the last two games have really turned on Spinoso, as the gameplan has obviously been to go to him inside whenever possible. Against Harvard, Spinoso struggled despite a lot of opportunity, and we came up short. Against Columbia he was dominant, but that just meant that it really killed us when he picked up his fourth foul. To win those last two games, we really needed him to play well and stay on the floor.
Brown will be a different matchup — unlike Harvard and Columbia, Brown has more strength inside. Spinoso will be more important on defense than he will be as a scorer (though his passing may be key).
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-02-24 06:41 PM - Post#362582
In response to SomeGuy
Regardless of Penn’s weaknesses, somebody has to get the fourth spot, and the other contenders have their own issues. If everyone wins every game they are favored to win the rest of the way, Harvard gets to 6 wins, Penn and Columbia 5, brown 3. So it may not take the type of push it has taken in the past — there are even reasonable scenarios where a 5 win team gets the last spot. Penn will have a chance if they can simply win the games they should win.
One of those games is at brown, so of course it is best not to get swept. But I think the only scenario that dooms Penn is getting swept this weekend while Harvard sweeps Columbia and Cornell. That would be a killer.
I don't think Penn will be favored to win more than 3 games the rest of the season (Columbia & Brown at home, and maybe at Dartmouth), meaning they would get to only 4 wins if everyone wins every game they're favored to win. They've already dropped 2 games they were favored to win. They would need to win the 3 games in which they're favored AND pull off at least 3 upsets to have a legitimate shot.
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Streamers
Professor
Posts: 8258
Loc: NW Philadelphia
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-24 07:04 PM - Post#362583
In response to 13otto
Penn is a 1 point underdog this evening
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Stuart Suss
PhD Student
Posts: 1439
Loc: Chester County, Pennsylva...
Reg: 11-21-04
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02-02-24 07:53 PM - Post#362585
In response to Streamers
Matt Leon reports that Clark Slajchert will not play tonight (Friday) at Brown. No further details.
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penn nation
Professor
Posts: 21212
Reg: 12-02-04
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02-03-24 08:10 PM - Post#362685
In response to Stuart Suss
And he's not in tonight against Yale, and the team is really playing like it, too.
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SomeGuy
Professor
Posts: 6413
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-10-24 04:40 PM - Post#362975
In response to 13otto
Columbia win at brown hurts. Columbia and Harvard now both project to 6 wins if every game goes to the favorite, while Penn projects to 4. And that includes presuming Penn beats Columbia at the Palestra.
I know — this is just SomeGuy slowly figuring out what everyone else figured out long ago. At least I’m still alive on the suggestion that the top 3 could run the table of games outside the top 3.
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13otto
Masters Student
Posts: 779
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Reg: 11-22-04
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Re: Next 4
02-24-24 10:02 PM - Post#363952
In response to 13otto
The seasons in which the rest of the League go 0-6 against the top 3 are how many? I cannot imagine that it ever has happened. Too tough to win on the road in the Ivies. Even in the seasons where Penn and Princeton were miles above everyone, the 2nd place team would end up that way because of a loss to Dartmouth or Columbia.
I agree that it won’t happen as it did so only once in the 60 years since Brown joined in 1953-54. That one time was 2002-03, when Penn went 14-0, Brown 12-2 and Princeton 10-4.
And Brown’s win over Cornell tonight means it didn’t happen again this season.
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